Aniline market is hard to warm up

Aniline market is hard to warm up

Since the second half of last year, international crude oil prices have plummeted, and ** prices have shown signs of falling. This has dragged the price of aniline down to new lows. This year it has stumbled. In July, the market price once fell to approach the 6,000 yuan/ton mark. New low in five years. The current price is still around 6,000 yuan/ton. The reason why the price of aniline is so low is due to reasons such as passive expansion, weak downstream demand, and small export volume. In consideration of all factors, the market trend of aniline may be difficult to reverse in the short term, and the process of purgatory may be quite long.

In the past ten years, the domestic chlor-alkali industry has developed rapidly and the volume scale has been continuously updated. With the successive release of new production capacity, the excess of hydrogen has become an important bottleneck restricting the development of the industry. In particular, due to the fact that PVC has long been in a sluggish state, the depletion of hydrogen chloride has a direct impact on the acceptance and digestion of hydrogen. If chlor-alkali enterprises can not successfully achieve an effective balance of hydrogen, it will inevitably cause a huge waste of resources, but also increase production costs and increase operating pressure.

In this context, chlor-alkali companies are looking for hydrogen-consuming products, and are almost always the preferred choice for the aniline project. Thus, in recent years, chlor-alkali companies have set off a wave of aniline expansion. Especially in the chlor-alkali provinces of Shandong, Inner Mongolia and other places, multiple sets of aniline large-scale installations have been put into operation. As of 2014, total domestic aniline production capacity has exceeded 3 million tons, including 1.2 million tons of large-scale enterprises Wanhua Chemical, 600,000 tons in Shandong Jinling and 250,000 tons in Nanhua. However, domestic effective demand is only about 2 million tons, and supply and demand are seriously out of balance. However, it is worrying that the momentum of energy expansion has not been weakened and the construction of the project has not stopped. For example, the 600,000-ton aniline base that Cornell invested in 9.5 billion yuan in Inner Mongolia is still under construction.

Aniline is widely used as an important raw material for the production of diphenylmethane diisocyanate (MDI), dyes, pesticides, rubber auxiliaries, pharmaceuticals, plastics, varnishes, films, **stabilizers, and gasoline anti-explosives. The aniline production methods mainly include nitrobenzene iron powder reduction method, chlorination animination method, nitrobenzene catalytic hydrogenation reduction method and phenol ammolysis method. At present, nitrobenzene hydrogenation is mainly used in China, but this traditional process is facing severe challenges. It is understood that the process uses coal-based hydrogen, tons of aniline need to consume 780 cubic meters of hydrogen, the cost of about 780 yuan, while the cost of chlor-alkali enterprises, hydrogen is generally less than 100 yuan. It can be seen that the traditional process of coal gas production will be opposed to the Chinese or will die.

From the demand point of view, MDI is the largest consumer of aniline, accounting for 65% of total domestic consumption of aniline; followed by rubber antioxidants, accounting for about 20%. According to Chen Jianqiang, manager of the organic department of Nanhua Company's sales center, from the current consumption trend of aniline downstream, MDI has caused stagflation in the aniline consumer market. This is mainly manifested in MDI enterprises. Most of them are currently supporting their own aniline devices in order to stabilize their own supply channels and will not purchase more aniline from the market. This makes it difficult for individual aniline enterprises to downstream from MDI. Share a slice of the pie in the expansion. At the same time, in the field of rubber antioxidants, because the logistics industry is in a sluggish cycle, with the slow growth of freight volume, the demand for engineering tires is not very strong, and this will affect the consumption of aniline in this area. In addition, although the consumption of aniline has increased in other fields such as pesticides, due to the small consumption, the demand for aniline will increase relatively slowly. Obviously, the direct downstream users of aniline appear to be obstructed, and the degree and breadth of the industry's downward extension is limited.

Excess aniline is always looking for a way out, and with the industrial adjustment of developed economies, many countries have basically ended aniline production, such as the United States, Japan and so on. This will undoubtedly provide export opportunities for excess aniline in the country. In recent years, the domestic exports of aniline have increased year by year. In 2013, a total of 20,000 tons of aniline was exported, which was expanded to 50,000 tons in 2014. In the first half of this year, exports exceeded 50,000 tons, an increase of more than 100% year-on-year. At present, China has formed three major gateways: Nanjing, Qingdao, and Shanghai, of which Jiangsu is the main source of aniline exports, accounting for more than 80% of the country's total exports. The important export destination for aniline is South Korea, which accounts for more than 50%, followed by India, Japan, and China Taiwan.

However, compared with the huge excess production capacity, the export volume of aniline is still insignificant. It is far from being able to understand the thirsty water. It is also a cup of water, and it cannot solve the problem fundamentally. Therefore, in the future, the way out for aniline must be to effectively curb energy expansion and minimize the gap between total supply and total demand. On the other hand, we must increase the development of downstream products of aniline and export more high-tech and high-value-added products. In order to increase the consumption of aniline, open up and expand the second aniline export channel, thus resolving the domestic overcapacity contradiction.

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