China's auto industry under macroeconomic changes

This is a period that the Chinese automotive industry will be remembered. When the global automotive industry enters a cold winter, China's auto industry will become a bright spot, and the significance of the world's auto giants will be highlighted.

Affected by the macroeconomic climate, the global automotive industry has also cast a thick shadow. At the same time, rising energy prices, rising cost prices, falling prices of auto products, tightening monetary policy, and implementation of new consumption tax have made the forecast of the entire Chinese auto market in 2009 more uncertain. Industry insiders said that the winter of the industry is accompanied. The global economic cycle is approaching.

A few days ago, the Ministry of Finance and other six ministries and commissions informed that since January 1, 2009, the nationwide unified cancellation of road maintenance fees, waterway maintenance fees, road transportation management fees, road passenger and freight surcharges, waterway transportation management fees, water transport passenger freight Additional fee. This will kick off the reshuffle of China's entire auto industry, and the whole world will wait and see. Relevant experts pointed out that China's auto industry is facing a variety of tests, the world is watching, this is not only a critical period, but also faces unprecedented historical opportunities.

A person in charge of the Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology told the "Xiaokang" reporter that the reform of the fuel tax will be vigorous and will drive the entire market to a certain extent. In addition, the implementation of some new laws will further stimulate the entire Chinese automobile market, thus awakening the entire market. potential. The above-mentioned person said that this is also a period in which the Chinese automobile industry will be remembered. When the global auto industry is in a fierce and brutal competition, China's auto industry will become a bright spot, and the significance of the world's auto giants will be highlighted.

a rare rescue city in the world
In 2008, China’s auto industry is undoubtedly a policy year. Whether it is a new consumption tax that has been adjusted again, or a fuel tax that has been called out for a long time, it has been infinitely magnified under the catalysis of economic environment changes. Rules and consumer trends have also been rewritten.

Xu Bingjin, former assistant minister of the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation and president of the China Association of European Economic and Technical Cooperation, said in an interview with the reporter of "Xiaokang" that the overall shift of policy will stimulate the consumption power of the entire market, and the driving force for economic growth in 2009 must be greater. Rely on the extent of expanding domestic demand. He said that in any case, the development speed of China's auto industry will fall back to the rational range.

Xu Changming, director of the Information Resource Department of the National Information Center, said that the level of positive growth depends mainly on the intensity of the car's incentive policy. He believes that the introduction and implementation of various policies will only reduce the cost of users' use. In addition, the vehicle purchase tax may be implemented in the same manner as the consumption tax, or the vehicle purchase tax will be appropriately reduced for small displacement within the specified time. The cost of car purchase is expected to decline, which will help stimulate demand for cars.

Xu Changming pointed out that the history of the development of the international sedan market shows that the medium and long-term development trend of a national passenger car market is mainly determined by the R value, R value = car price / per capita GDP. In the next 10 years, China's R value will be transformed near the time of 3, and a large number of cars will enter the families of thousands of families. In addition, before 2020, the passenger car market will still be in a rapid development range, with a growth rate equivalent to about 1.5 times the GDP growth rate.

According to the "2009 China's Imported Automobile Market Operation Strategy Report", in 2009, the domestic automobile imports for the whole year was about 360,000 units, a negative growth of about 10% year-on-year, especially in the first quarter and even in the first half of the year. Negative growth in magnitude. If the policy continues to lead, negative growth will be reduced by a certain margin.

A 2008 annual report on China's imported auto market also shows that in the first half of 2008, the Chinese auto market continued to maintain a rapid growth of nearly 20%. However, since the second half of the year, affected by the international financial crisis, the world economic environment has turned sharply downwards, and with the adjustment of the domestic economic cycle, the domestic economy has quickly entered the downward channel. As the financial crisis spread to the real economy, the automobile industry suffered a strong impact, and the international auto market experienced a rare decline and shrinkage. After 10 years of rapid development, the Chinese auto industry has dropped to the lowest growth level in 10 years.

The relevant person in charge of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers told the reporter of "Xiaokang" that in 2008, the growth rate of China's automobile production and sales was less than 8%, which was the first time since 1999 that it was less than 10%.

At the same time, the State Council issued a plan for the revitalization of the automobile industry, which will play the role of saving the city. It is understood that the plan will introduce a series of policies conducive to the development of automobiles. Recently, some media reported that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology proposed six major automobile rescue policies, including expanding domestic demand for automobiles, expanding overseas markets, supporting the development of self-owned brands, reforming the tariffs on refined oil products, accelerating the promotion of the construction of used car market, and prohibiting restrictions on consumption and increase. The policy of corporate burden. Adjusting the purchase tax will become the most promising way to expand the domestic demand of the car, and the auto market may even pick up in advance.

“We have submitted to the Ministry of Commerce the relevant policy recommendations on responding to the international financial turm and expanding domestic demand to drive automobile consumption, but a number of preferential policies for the same industry have been introduced at the same time, which is relatively rare internationally.” China Automotive Circulation He Liming, president of the association, believes that the introduction and implementation of these policies will bring tangible benefits to car manufacturers, distributors and consumers.

"Obviously, the government's 'saving the city' is not an expedient to stimulate consumption, but hopes to improve the automobile industry policy by 'saving the city', to encourage the energy-saving and environmentally-friendly and recyclable manufacturing of automobile enterprises, and guide the sustainable development of the automobile industry." If so.

An industry insider told reporters that the arrival of policies will bring growth, but if credit continues to tighten, it will not rule out that a group of enterprises will close down.

High growth in 2009
“It is certain that the Chinese auto market in 2009 will be the highlight of the world and the most promising market.” Xu Changming, an expert in the automotive market research and director of the Information Resource Department of the National Information Center, said at the China Import Car Forum on January 6. . Xu Changming believes that the first half of 2009 will be a difficult period, especially in the first quarter, but there will be a slight improvement in the second half. Coincidentally, a person in charge of the Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said in an interview with the reporter of "Xiaokang" that the entire automobile market will show signs of rapid growth in 2009.

Zhang Xiaoyu, chairman of the China Automotive Engineering Society, pointed out that automobiles have become the pillar industry of the national economy, and the overall trend of annual growth above GDP has not changed, and the national economy and the automobile industry will maintain a certain growth rate. He predicted that the national automobile production in 2009 will exceed 10 million.

However, some analysts believe that although China's GDP growth will reach a consensus between 7.8% and 8.3% in 2009, the direction of the auto market may not be clear. Lin Lei, president of Xinhuaxin International Information Consulting Co., Ltd., said that the market in developed cities in China has become saturated, and the purchasing power of rural areas has not been effectively developed, and the market in other economically underdeveloped regions still needs a period of growth. Will cause the national market to slow down. Lin Lei believes that consumers should restore confidence in the second quarter of 2010, after the car consumption demand is not clear.

Ding Hongxiang, vice president of China Automobile Dealers Association and chairman and general manager of China Import Automobile Trading Co., Ltd., told the reporter of "Xiaokang" that the international financial crisis has not yet bottomed out, and the influence of international and domestic automobile industry is deepening, and its The impact of the real economy is still deepening. In any case, the global automotive industry will be a severe year for 2009, which has a dual impact on the Chinese auto market and auto companies.

Ding Hongxiang believes that with the trend of China's imported auto market in 2009, negative growth is hard to avoid, but there are still many opportunities. He said that the sharp shrinking of the international auto market has made multinational companies more likely to pay more attention to the Chinese market, and will expand into small-displacement SUB models. There will be more room for development in the segmented product market such as individuality and fashion sports cars. The imbalance in the development of China's region also leaves room for development in some regional market segments, and companies with strong competitiveness can deposit and expand their competitive advantages. In addition, the long-term good development prospects of the Chinese market will not change. On the contrary, it is a good time for domestic enterprises to improve their capability systems and improve operational management and adjustment and transformation.

Brand and quality are set to succeed
For a long time, China’s automobile national independent brands have not become the mainstream of the market, and it is difficult to develop a car independent brand. According to industry experts, this year is the best time for local brands to launch their own brands.

Recently, the chairman of Huachen Automobile Group Holdings Co., Ltd., Yu Yumin, said in an exclusive interview with Phoenix Satellite TV that the development of a self-owned brand cannot be separated from the support of the government and the support of the nationals and the efforts of the automobile factory to make fine products. An interaction.

Yan Yumin believes that the development and planning of independent brands require strong policy support and tough policy advice. The government can support it from the general support, such as research and development, taxation, market and independent consumption. He emphasized that independent brands are not only enterprises, but also national ones.

Xu Bingjin praised this. He pointed out that only by completely embarking on the road of independent research and development, China will completely break away from the hat of the 'processing factory', otherwise even if the joint venture continues, there will still be no birth of its own brand. Xu Bingjin called for the country to make great efforts to support the development of local enterprises, and to give strong support from parts, funds, and independent research and development, so that China can become China's largest automobile market.

A set of data shows that as the world's second largest auto market, in the 9.5 million auto market, independent brands account for only 31%, less than one-third of the entire market. According to analysis by industry experts, it may fall to 26% to 27% in 2009, because the joint venture brand is expanding.

National Information Center statistics show that in the first quarter of 2008, the sales of self-owned brand passenger cars showed negative growth for the first time in three years, down 0.3% year-on-year. From January to November, the sales of self-owned brand cars totaled 1,176,400 units, a slight increase of 3.5% year-on-year, which was less than the increase in the sales volume of the entire car.

Feng Fei, director of the Industrial Economics Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out that no matter how large the percentage is, we still have such low-end and mid-end markets. How to move from the low-end market to the mid-to-high-end market requires a deep reflection.

Wang Yong, secretary general of the Brand China Industry Alliance, believes that “both brand and quality are not limited to small cars of independent brands. Higher-level models need to greatly enhance the gold content and quality of the brand. In the current situation that the self-owned brand automobile market is gradually shrinking, The brand's gold content and quality of self-owned brand cars are the key to success."