Door and Window Industry: No Sacrifice for Macro-control

At the beginning of this year, the national real estate and fixed asset investment policies may face increasingly fine-tuning signals. Starting from late January, nine ministries and commissions of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development including the United Nations Ministry of Land Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission have inspected the real estate control effectiveness of local governments, focusing on inspecting real estate-related regulations. The implementation of the policy will form phased opinions before this year's **. In April, the relevant policies for real estate regulation were formally implemented.

Under the circumstances that the Central Government has repeatedly made heavy-handed control over real estate, the trend of the Chinese real estate market in 2010 has been exposed. In the first quarter, housing prices will also show a rising trend, and the effect of the regulation will begin to appear from the second quarter. This year's real estate policy will also show a "loose before the tight" trend, while the housing prices are relatively reasonable or a slight increase in the second and third-tier cities of real estate policies will be appropriately relaxed. In addition to regulating the real estate market, in order to further ease inflationary pressures, the country will also strictly control investment in fixed assets this year, tightening the mainstream trend of monetary policy.

The macroeconomic situation in 2010 is bound to have a significant impact on the development of the entire door and window industry this year. This influence will focus on three aspects.

Second-tier and third-tier cities grow into core growth policies: appropriately liberalize real estate policies in second- and third-tier cities where housing prices are relatively reasonable or have not increased significantly.

Performance: The further release of rigid demand in second and third-tier cities will become a new growth point for the property market this year.

Impact: The whole industry of doors and windows has been downgraded. Driven by the second- and third-tier real estate market, the fastest-growing areas for doors and windows will also appear in the region. The middle and low-end products with high performance-price ratio will become the darling of the market, and some economic and durable high-end products are also expected to appear hot.

Door and window capacity expansion and cooling policy: increase the real estate regulation and control of first-tier cities and real estate hotspots, and curb the excessive growth of housing prices. The government funding guarantee will be invalid.

Performance: With the rational decline of the housing market, the demand for building materials in first-tier cities will gradually shrink.

Impact: In 2009, the boom in capacity expansion of doors and windows was cold. Recently, the State Ministry of Finance is taking the lead in formulating documents to standardize local pledges of guarantee commitments. The important one is that the "guarantee letter" of local governments and officials is invalid. Apart from normative guarantees, the relevant authorities may also strictly control the total amount of local government debt. If the documents are announced as scheduled, the lifeline of the expansion of doors and windows will be directly confined to the investment channels, and the expansion of production capacity will become a reality.

Low-end product market worrying policy: "building materials to the countryside"

Performance: Although the specific implementation measures for “building materials to the countryside” have not been introduced, the entire pan-home industry, including the windows and doors industry, has tightened its nerves. We hope that by using this Dongfeng, we will continue to channel channels to the third- and fourth-tier markets. Good, but also to achieve a big expansion from the brand and market layout.

Impact: Throughout the industry, leading enterprises in the door and window industry have already been well deployed, and products have gradually penetrated into the third and fourth tier markets through the forms of origin and sales. In the traditional sense, the low-end products with no brand and no after-sales products were gradually replaced by the low-end products of the brand enterprises, and the market space was further compressed. In 2010, this trend will be further continued. The low-end products that occupy low prices for a long time in the rural market may face a life-and-death battle, and the classification of the entire industry will also accelerate.

Through the understanding of the door and window companies, according to industry analysts, the new deal is mainly for the "National Ten" since the release, the property market regulation has not been put in place, the recent property market has once again warmed up signs. The New Deal is still nominally implementing the "National Ten Articles," which actually exceeds the scope of the "National Ten Articles," and the impact is more comprehensive. Therefore, it can be said that this policy is the third tightening control following the first wave in December last year and the second wave in April this year. Or affected by the first-tier urban building materials demand companies, sales channels sink as a door and window industry closely related to the property market, this control policy will affect the doors and windows market? The reporter interviewed a number of building doors and windows enterprises in Foshan, found that the building doors and windows enterprises did not appear to imagine The panic among them is rather indifferent, and most companies are optimistic.