The PMI index in June has been above 50 for four consecutive months since March, and the economic recovery is in full swing. Due to the spurt of credit funds in June, the economic recovery is strong, offsetting seasonal factors. At the same time, the new export orders index was 51.4 in June, up 1.3 points from the previous month. The new orders index continued to rise for 8 consecutive months; the finished goods inventory index was 45, down 1.2 points from May.
Concerned about the anti-seasonal growth of some mechanical products. In June, the growth rate of newly started projects and real estate investment rebounded significantly. After the flat sales in April and May, the sales of construction machinery showed a sales momentum of “low seasonâ€, and the role of 4 trillion began to appear. Domestic machine tool production rebounded and it showed positive growth for the first time in the year.
Exports have shown signs of bottoming out, but a strong recovery will take time. Data show that South Korea and China's construction machinery exports are higher than the previous month, but machine orders from Japan, Germany and the United States are still bleak.
If exports are revived in the second half of the year, listed companies with higher exports will show performance flexibility, such as CIMC, Anhui Heli, Shantui and Xugong Technology.
Focus on the recovery of gross profit margin in the second half of the year. After the increase in capacity utilization, the demand for global steel products is expected to be limited due to the lack of demand for global machinery products. The gross profit margin of the machinery industry in the second half of the year may be better than that of the first half.
The construction machinery industry is recommended to continue the medium-term investment strategy. The recovery of the machinery industry will be evolved from downstream special equipment such as construction machinery to parts and other general equipment such as machine tools. The recovery is a gradual process. At present, the demand start is still mainly from infrastructure construction, such as railways, highways, subways, etc. Although there are signs of increase in real estate starts, the demand from real estate has not increased significantly. It is expected that due to the lagging influence of government investment and the recovery of private investment in the second half of the year, construction machinery sales will show positive growth year-on-year, and even the chain is likely to grow. Xugong Technology is mainly recommended, and its current valuation is lower than that of listed companies in the same industry.
Machinery Industry July 2009 report: the off-season is not weak, the export bottoming out
The highlight of this monthly report is to increase the monthly sales volume of construction machinery in Japan and South Korea and the order data of German, Japanese and American machine tools to help us judge the global machinery product sales and the recovery of steel demand.