National Energy Administration: May electricity consumption increase to hit a new low in the year

According to data released by the National Energy Administration on June 13, in May, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 496.8 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, which was 0.9 percentage points lower than that in April, setting a new low for the year. The previously announced May manufacturing PMI data was unchanged from the previous month, and the fiscal revenue growth has dropped significantly. In the case that a series of leading indicators have fallen back, the organization generally expects that the data on industrial production growth and investment growth in May may show a slowdown.
After 2011, China's electricity demand has entered a stage of low-speed growth, and the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society has continued to decline, from 7.5% in 2013 to 3.8% in 2014. In 2015, it was only 0.5%. It is China's electricity for the past 40 years. The year with the lowest year-on-year growth data. In 2016, the whole society's electricity consumption rebounded, up 5% year-on-year and hit a three-year high. This momentum continued into 2017. In the first two months, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 6.3% year-on-year, and it increased by 7.9% year-on-year in March. However, the growth rate of electricity consumption has gradually declined since April.
According to the National Energy Administration, from January to May, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 246.63 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. In terms of industries, the primary industry's electricity consumption was 39 billion kWh, up 6.1% year-on-year; the second industry's electricity consumption was 171.29 billion kWh, up 6.3%; the tertiary industry's electricity consumption was 335.3 billion kWh, up 9.0%; The electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 349.2 billion kWh, an increase of 4.1%.
Li Huiyong, chief macro analyst of Shen Wan Hongyuan, also said that the growth rate of industrial added value in May will slow down to 6.2%. However, he stressed that from the high-frequency data in the first ten days, industrial production in June was significantly improved compared with the same period in May.
Investment growth is expected to continue to slow down. Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, predicted that the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment in May was 8.7%. After the growth rate in April, the latest data may continue to decline. From the perspective of major investment categories, the growth rate of infrastructure investment has been maintained at a relatively fast pace. The PPP project has reached a total of 14.6 trillion yuan in investment, and has invested 2.9 trillion yuan in investment. Transportation investment has grown rapidly; manufacturing investment has been slow, with a growth rate of 5 The sales of real estate continued to fall, but the growth of sales slowed down, the financing growth of real estate enterprises slowed down noticeably, and the growth rate of real estate development investment was difficult to continue to rise. The turning point may come soon.
In fact, when major macroeconomic indicators fell in April, institutions and markets generally expected economic growth or moderate slowdown in the second quarter. However, the National Bureau of Statistics has written a special article recently pointed out that the short-term fluctuations in economic data are normal, the overall economic operation is stable, stable, and stable, and the development trend has not changed. It is predicted that the economy will maintain medium- and high-speed growth throughout the year. The expected goals of development can be achieved and strive for better results in actual work.