According to the report, Li Daokui, director of the Center for China and World Economic Research at Tsinghua University, pointed out that so far, the pattern of decline in the growth rate of China's real economy has basically ended. The Chinese economy can be said to have stepped out of the trough and entered a channel of rising growth rate. The size of China's economy will exceed that of Japan by the end of this year.
The report also pointed out that Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, also believes that GDP in the first quarter of this year increased by 6.1% year-on-year, which continued to decrease from the fourth quarter of last year. The momentum of the bottom rebound has taken shape for three reasons: first, consumption Stable and prosperous, the consumption structure upgrade activity began to recover. In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 15% year-on-year. After excluding the price factor, the actual growth rate increased by 3.6 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. Second, investment growth has accelerated markedly. In the first quarter, the fixed asset investment of the whole society increased by 28.8%. Third, the decline in exports has narrowed. In the first quarter, foreign trade exports fell by 19.7% year-on-year, and the decline was further increased from the fourth quarter of last year. However, the year-on-year declines in exports from January to February and exports in March were 21.1% and 17.1%, respectively.
Zhang Liqun pointed out that a comprehensive analysis of the changes in the three major demands can be considered as a significant increase in the level of China's total economic demand. Experience shows that market demand changes are reflected in economic growth, with a time lag of about a quarter, so the first quarter demand changes, indicating that the economic growth in the second quarter will be significantly improved.
Scholars say that China’s economic growth will accelerate beyond the second quarter after the end of Japan
According to Hong Kong's Wen Wei Po report, although the economic data in the first four months of this year is mixed, some optimistic scholars believe that the Chinese economy has already bottomed out and entered a stage of slow growth, and China's total economic output is expected to exceed the end of this year. Japan has become the world's second largest economy.