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The dollar fell to the current $33, a drop of 93%. Macquarie Group analysts expect that polysilicon production next year will be 28% more than demand, which is 8 percentage points higher than this year's 20%. “The photovoltaic solar market is clearly in the realm of breaking the illusion.†Wacker Chemical’s CEO Rudolf Stoutig said that polysilicon surplus will squeeze polysilicon producers such as Hemlock Semiconductor and Wacker Chemical. Profit margin. "As for how long the downturn in the polysilicon industry will last, I really can't answer it," Studiger said. Trina Solar, the world's fifth-largest solar panel maker, believes that most of the top solar module manufacturers will disappear in the next few years. “The price has fallen and the profit margin has been reduced. The weakest solar companies will be eliminated.†CEO Gao Jifan said in an interview with overseas media last week that “the global solar industry is in the midst of a decade of mergers and acquisitions. 2015 is the first phase, during which about two-thirds of solar energy companies will be eliminated.†Gao Jifan expects that only five companies in the three major production areas of the solar industry may survive to 2020. These three areas are photovoltaic panels, solar ingots and wafers, and raw material polysilicon. So far, three US solar companies, including Solyndra, have declared bankruptcy this year. More solar companies such as Fors First Solar and Yingli Green Energy have also lowered their revenue and profit margin forecasts. Solar equipment supplier Amtech Systems Inc. earlier this week expected that the company's quarterly results would suffer losses due to sluggish revenues and increased R&D costs.
There is a serious excess of polysilicon. The global solar industry will welcome a round of reshuffle.
The photovoltaic solar market has reached a moment when reality breaks the illusion. The most pessimistic forecast of the industry is that only five companies in the three major production areas of the solar industry may survive to 2020. "The situation of oversupply of polysilicon is very, very, very serious." Paul Remin, head of research at New York City in Ticonderoga, predicted that the pricing of polysilicon will stabilize at a level close to production costs for several years. The supply of raw materials is too high, and the solar industry can only "sing the singer". Overseas media commented that the price of batteries and microchips will have nowhere to go and can only fall. The signal given by the market is clearer. On November 16, Xinyi Glass, a car and home appliance glass manufacturer listed on the Hong Kong market in China, decided to delay the spin-off of its solar subsidiaries. Xinyi Glass announced on the same day that due to the recent fluctuations in global capital markets and the long-term adverse effects of the sovereign debt crisis of several European countries on the global solar industry, the future development of the global solar industry is still unclear. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, with the doubling of production by the world's five largest manufacturers, polysilicon prices have been 475 per kilogram three years ago.