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A number of macro data are showing signs of recovery, economic or bottoming
A number of macroeconomic indicators released in September have begun to pick up, indicating that the effect of the “steady growth†measures in the early stage has gradually emerged, and the economic bottoming has stabilized, and it is expected to stabilize slightly in the future. The end of the four consecutive declines in September official PMI rebounded for four consecutive months, the official manufacturing PMI rebounded in September, the final value of HSBC PMI also rebounded. According to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics on the 1st, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8% in September, up 0.6 percentage points from August, approaching 50% of the watershed. The index has been the first since May this year. It is now rising. The HSBC PMI data released earlier showed that the final value of the data in September also rose to 47.9%. Among the main sub-indices, only a few of the indices declined slightly, and most of the indices rebounded to varying degrees. In particular, the major leading indices such as the new order index and the raw material inventory index rebounded significantly. “The PMI index rebounded in September, indicating that the economic bottoming signs are becoming more and more obvious.†Zhang Liqun, a macroeconomic researcher at the National Research Center, said that the new orders index rebounded, reflecting the stabilization of domestic investment and consumer demand growth; the new export orders index rebounded, indicating The exit began to recover. The finished goods inventory index continued to decrease, and the raw material purchasing index rebounded, indicating that the company's destocking activities basically ended. The rebound in the production index indicates that the production has begun to recover due to the increase in orders. "Comprehensive analysis, the downward trend of economic growth has begun to change, and it is expected that economic growth will stabilize slightly in the future." Zhang Liqun said. The "Troika" is expected to resume its momentum. Since May of this year, the country has adopted a series of "steady growth" measures, and steady investment has become a major event. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 53.7 in September, the lowest level in the year, but remained in the expansion range. In the sub-indices, the civil engineering construction industry new order index rebounded for three consecutive months. This means that the effective demand for infrastructure investment is gradually being released. In addition, from the perspective of the “troika†that drives economic growth, the September data is expected to pick up. Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications , pointed out that the consumer market in September will benefit from the positive impact of the “double festival†promotion activities and a number of domestic promotion policies. The consumption growth rate may rebound significantly; The National Development and Reform Commission's approval and accelerating and the recent local government's push for land increased. In September, infrastructure investment demand continued to rise. Real estate new construction data showed signs of rebound. The growth rate of fixed asset investment is expected to increase compared with August. On the export side, under the general environment of short-term external demand recovery in September, it is expected that the decline in exports to Europe will be significantly narrowed, and exports to the US will rebound slightly, thus driving exports in September to increase to around 6%. Although many economic indicators have shown signs of recovery in September and August, some analysts pointed out that the effect of the steady growth policy initiated in the second quarter may be extended to the end of the year. The actual growth rate of GDP in the third quarter is expected to be two. The quarter will still be slightly slowed down. In the second quarter, GDP growth rate was 7.8%, hitting a three-year low. Lian Ping predicted that GDP in the third quarter may continue to slow down to 7.5%. It is reported that the National Bureau of Statistics will hold a press conference on the 18th to introduce the macroeconomic operation in the third quarter, when a series of macro data including GDP will be released.