Affected by international oil prices, domestic oil prices have been delayed

Last week, due to the accumulation of risky events such as the US presidential election and Greece’s new fiscal austerity plan, there were arbitrage opportunities for short-term speculators in the crude oil market. The crude oil price surged and plummeted. The change rate of crude oil in the three places was affected by this change in the trend of decline, and it rebounded slightly, delaying the delay in the domestic forecast for a strong product oil cut.

In addition, it is worth noting that the downward adjustment window of refined oil is gradually approaching, and the market is expected to be increasingly strong. The two major oil companies have completed poor sales of refined oil products in October, and the current sales pressure is high.

Analysts in the industry said that taking a look at the situation in the week before last week, New York's oil price fell by 2.00 US dollars to close at 85.09 US dollars / barrel, a decrease of 2.30%; London Brent oil price fell by 0.92 US dollars to close at 107.25 US dollars / barrel, a decrease of 0.85 %. Looking at the market outlook, various types of risk events in the crude oil market have gradually become clear, and the trend of oil prices is expected to escape from the current situation of skyrocketing plunge. From the analysis of fundamentals and technical aspects, oil prices will remain in a downtrend channel in the medium to long term, but in the short term, due to the current large drop in oil prices, there may be a certain rebound.

The relatively large decline in three consecutive places in two consecutive days has accelerated the pace of domestic refined oil price reductions. At this rate, it is estimated that this week, the rate of change in the three cities will be expected to be higher than “4”, and the theoretical price adjustment conditions will meet the price adjustment window. Opened, and for the recent several times, the National Development and Reform Commission adjusted prices are more timely considerations, this Thursday, domestic refined oil is expected to usher in the fourth cut.

"If the prices of crude oil in the three places in the later period will continue to increase by US$1 per barrel per day, it is expected that the rate of change in the three places will fall to 4% on November 12 (domestic 13th), and the fastest will be to cut refined oil products in the early morning of the 14th. The maximum retail price limit.” Industry analysts said that if the crude oil shocks decline or consolidation, the window opening will be slightly ahead of schedule. Taken together, the fourth time this year, the cut in oil prices is basically a foregone conclusion. As the overall decline in crude oil is relatively small, it is expected that the reduction will be in the range of 300-350 yuan / ton.