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Aluminium market pressure on digesting stocks is the main theme
Under the influence of the national macro-control, the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry began to enter the normative development period. After a series of industry policies have been successively clear, Shanghai Aluminum will usher in a splendid spring. In 2005, aluminum prices will enter the main market after digesting the inventory pressure. Rising wave market. I. The elimination of export tax rebates and the increase of export tariffs have a significant short-term effect on exports. Since 2005, the country will cancel the 8% export tax rebate for aluminum ingots and impose a 5% tariff, which increases the export of aluminum. Cost, the enthusiasm of domestic exports of aluminum ingots will be greatly reduced. However, the reduction in exports will lead to higher international aluminum prices, which in turn will make exports more lucrative. As a result, exports will increase, imports will decrease, and the aluminum surplus will ease. The monthly export situation in 2004 fully explained this point. Since the export tax rebate rate fell from 15% to 8%, resulting in a sharp drop in exports in the first few months of last year, the subsequent export volume steadily increased. Therefore, it can be predicted that the implementation of this policy will cause some pressure on domestic aluminum prices in the short term, but its long-term effect is not obvious. Second, aluminum supply growth in 2005 will tend to stabilize A series of macro-control measures in 2004 to curb the blind expansion of domestic aluminum production capacity. In 2005, the electricity shortage will continue and the domestic capacity utilization rate will be difficult to increase. It is estimated that domestic aluminum production in 2005 may reach about 7.3 million tons, which is only about 700,000 tons more than the 6.6 million tons in 2004. In other countries, due to the relatively small increase in aluminum prices in 2004, new production capacity is not very active. Global aluminum production is estimated to reach 31 million tons, an increase of 4.7% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in 2004. Third, demand will continue to maintain rapid growth This round of high economic growth is mainly driven by investment demand, of which the performance is more obvious is the real estate and automotive industries. At present, there are more than 70,000 projects under construction in China, and the scale under construction exceeds 16 trillion yuan, which is equivalent to three years of fixed asset investment. Therefore, the climax of the investment that began in 2003, calculated on an average five-year construction period, will last at least until 2007. During these years, the annual investment growth rate will not be less than 25%. Although the United States has entered a rate hike cycle, its industrial production and housing starts have remained at a high level. The rapid development of real estate has not changed. The U.S. aluminum consumption in 2004 increased by as much as 12%. Although the demand of other countries faces some variables, the strong demand of the two large aluminum demand countries in China and the United States will make aluminum consumption in 2005 will maintain a relatively rapid growth. 4. The depreciation of the US dollar will become the continuous driving force for aluminum price rise. The US deficit and the current account deficit have reached record highs. The U.S. personal saving accounted for only 0.2% of household disposable income, far below the historical average of 8% to 11%. , The lack of savings for consumers and living beyond the income level led to an increase in the household debt burden of the United States and a high debt repayment rate. In order to solve the problem of lack of domestic savings, the United States needs to import large amounts of surplus surplus countries through trade and current account deficits. The geopolitical risks, the security expenditures brought about by the shadow of terror, the social welfare burden under the ageing population, and the tax-extending expansionary policies will be the great difficulties faced by the Bush administration in reducing the double deficit. The U.S. fiscal deficit will be substantially reduced next year. The possibility is small. Therefore, as a whole, the US dollar will continue to weaken next year, which will become one of the continuing drivers of the rise in aluminum prices. V. Production Cost Constitutes Strong Support to Aluminum Prices In domestic aluminum ingot costs, alumina and energy consumption are the main factors affecting the production cost of aluminum ingots, accounting for about 45% and 32% respectively. At present, the production cost of most electrolytic aluminum plants in China is above 16,500 yuan/ton, which makes the domestic aluminum price fall space extremely limited. Earlier this year, LME's comprehensive aluminum had plummeted, but Shanghai Aluminum remained relatively strong, resulting in a rebound in domestic and foreign exchange rates to around 8.8. The coal-electricity linkage policy implemented by China this year will drive up the price of electricity, and the state will ban the direct import of alumina by manufacturers below 100,000 tons. The import of alumina is mainly carried out by China Aluminum, with a strong monopoly, so the electrolytic aluminum It is difficult to reduce the production cost in the short term, which constitutes a strong support for aluminum prices. In summary, although short-term aluminum inventory pressure will restrain aluminum prices from rising, good fundamentals and market conditions will determine this year's aluminum prices will gradually enter the rising channel.