Coal prices are now rebounding

Recently, some ports have experienced a shortage of low-calorie, low-grade coal stocks. Shenhua, China Coal, and Itai have adjusted their coal sales prices, and low-card coal prices have risen. Deng Yan, a coal analyst, told reporters that with the approach of summer peaks, the demand for supplemental inventory of power plants and the increase in coal tariffs, and the status quo of superimposed coal mining companies, the coal price will now stabilize and pick up.

Large coal prices

It is understood that the domestic coal species with low calorific value are tight, and China Coal No. 9 and Yitai No. 4 coal products have experienced tight supply conditions. Recently, large coal companies have also raised the prices of low-grade coal.

Deng Yu introduced that Yitai Group announced that from May 18th, the price of 5,000 kcal coal was increased by RMB 5/t.

In fact, since May 10th, the price of Shenhua Huanwu (4,300kcal) has been raised by RMB 10/t, which is now RMB 315/t. The price plan has been implemented since midnight on May 11th.

At the same time, China Coal Group also canceled the Pingjiu Coal Preferential Policy. * The Pingjiu Coal Group with more than 1.5% is equivalent to a price increase of RMB 10/ton, and the coal with a price of less than 1.5% is equivalent to a price increase of RMB 5-10/ton. .

According to reports, due to the recent downstream users and traders wanting to pull cargo, the cost of coastal coal has also continued to rise. Freight from 50,000 to 6,000 tons from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou rose from 25-30 yuan/ton last month to 35 yuan/ton. , rose 8-10 yuan / ton.

Port inventory continues to decline. On May 18, Qinhuangdao stocks were 5.92 million tons, which was a decrease of 1.1 million tons compared to the highest inventory of 6.20 million tons on April 15.

Deng Hao said that there is an optimistic situation in coal, on the one hand, because of the reduction in coal production. According to the data report of the Coal Marketing Association, from January to April this year, the national coal output was 1.12 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 77 million tons, a decrease of 6.4%. At the same time, from January to April, China imported 69.02 million tons of coal, a cumulative decrease of 37.7%. On the other hand, the number of coal deposits in power plants hit a record low for three years. As of May 10, the nation's major power plants had 55.55 million tons of coal stocks, a decrease of 4.69 million tons from the previous month, a decrease of 7.85%.

“As the large mines have adjusted the prices of some low-calorie coals since mid-May, the market expects to look down from one side, and gradually believe that the coal price has basically bottomed out, and the low inventory of power plants is bringing about a wave of pulls. At the peak, coastal freight, which is a leading indicator of coal prices, has risen rapidly. In the short term, domestic coal prices are expected to usher in a wave of repairing rally, Deng said.

In the case of coking coal, the price adjustment of the major coking coal companies has improved and the inventory has decreased. The energy index model shows that the price of coking coal will stabilize in late May and is expected to start rising in early June.

Coal companies suffered serious losses

Since the beginning of this year, coal prices have repeatedly hit new lows. The latest issue (May 13) of the Bohai Rim 5500 kcal thermal coal index closed at RMB 416/t, refreshing the lowest value since the index was issued. The index has dropped for 18 consecutive weeks and has fallen by a total of 109 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.76%. Affected by this, the loss of listed coal companies continued to expand.

According to Wind data, among the 39 listed companies in the coal sector in the first quarter, 18 companies suffered a net profit loss, which was nearly half of the loss. Excluding China Shenhua, the total net profit of the 38 listed coal companies in the first quarter of this year was a loss of 1.217 billion yuan, and the industry's earnings continued to deteriorate.

Among them, the biggest loss in the first quarter is still the last year's "loss champion" SDIC new set. In the first quarter of this year, the company realized operating income of 1.287 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.07%; net loss of 491 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 132.74%. The main reason for the loss in performance was still the coal market was in the doldrums. In the first quarter, the company’s coal sales volume and selling price both dropped significantly compared with the same period of last year.

In the semi-annual performance forecast, it is even more "a mournful affair." Of the 13 listed companies that have already announced performance announcements, only the open-pit coal industry has continued to grow, and China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, Panjiang, and other five companies have reduced their pre-reductions; SDIC Xinji, Shaanxi Coal, Heihe shares, etc. 7 The company continues to suffer losses.

Among them, China Shenhua is expected to drop its net profit by more than 50% in the first half of the year. In the first quarter of this year, the company's net profit was 5.69 billion yuan, down 45% year-on-year. In addition to the impact of the decline in coal prices, the company estimates that the recent reduction in the on-grid tariff will have an adverse effect on the profit before tax of approximately RMB 2.65 billion.