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Construction Securities (09.03): Copper and Aluminum
Jian Jian Information (09.03): Copper and Aluminum recently added a “Risk Warning†section to describe the risk of long and short positions through the star image of this icon, for investors to use when referencing open positions. In actual operation, investors need to take specific control based on their own short-medium-term trading strategies and different types of fluctuation characteristics. The specific star classification criteria are as follows: ☆ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be less than 2%. ☆ ☆ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be greater than 2%. ☆☆ ☆ The price range is reversed from the newer closing. The rate may be greater than 3%. ☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer closing may be greater than 4%. ☆☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer closing may be greater than 5% Risk Warning: Bullish Risk: ☆☆ Short-term risk: ☆ Tips before the move: Orient: Copper: Due to the imminent U.S. holiday holidays, pressure from technical selling pressure, and the emergence of stop-loss orders, led to a large-scale decline in LME copper prices yesterday, which was once set in the session. New lows for the week ended the day at $2736.5/ton, which was a decrease of $41/ton from the previous trading day. The fluctuation ranged from $2779.5 to $2,716/ton. Yesterday, LME copper stocks decreased by 150 tons as a whole, but the stock of copper in warehouses in Singapore increased by 825 tons. The increase in copper stocks in the Far East warehouse has brought certain influence to investors, and the market expects that stocks will increase. The Peruvian Toquepala and Cugjione copper miners of South Peru Copper Company continued their strikes. The annual output of the mine is 350,000 tons, but the market expects that the strike time will not be too long. Under the influence of these two factors, the market will put more pressure. Large, led to the decline in the price of copper. From the current trend of copper prices, the support below the copper price is 2680 US dollars, the upper resistance is located at 2800 US dollars, and the selling pressure above the copper price is relatively large. In the expectation of increasing copper inventories and increasing copper supply, medium and long-term copper prices Still going down. Yesterday the domestic copper exhibited a trend of opening higher and lower, but the overall trend was weaker. The final contract ended at RMB 26,030/t in December, down RMB 40/t from the previous trading day. The domestic spot price rose. The spot price was 29280~29380 yuan/ton yesterday and the premium was 650~750 yuan/ton. Aluminium: LME's aluminum month saw a turbulent decline yesterday, closing at 1684.5 USdollars/ton, gaining support in the first-line at 1680 US dollars, and continued decline in LME aluminum stocks provided support for aluminum prices. The domestic Shanghai aluminum exhibited a trend of narrow fluctuations yesterday, and the trading volume shrank significantly. The November contract of the main contract closed at RMB 16,020 per ton, and the aluminum price is still oscillating in the box of 16,200 to 15,800. The spot price of domestic aluminum changed little yesterday, 15900 ~ 15940 yuan / ton. Ma Hongqing: The LME copper price fell during the trading on Thursday. Under the background of a significant reduction in the position level, the support for the period's once again below the 2740/2750 line appears to be very problematic, especially with the passing of 2750 first-line call options on Wednesday. From the technical point of view, it is certain that the price of copper is under construction, and the recent strong pressure on the 2800 line has given us reason to believe that the construction of the head is nearing its end. In particular, the increase in inventory has greatly reduced the atmosphere of the crowded warehouse. From the perspective of the K-line pattern, copper prices are still likely to hold the support level of 2650/2680 in the short-term, so the current slump remains cautious. Looking at one stage, we think that it is safe for short-term contracts to be short above 25,800. It is expected that the Shanghai CU CU412 will test the 25600 support level on Friday, with the pressure level at 25800. Investors are advised to sell short above 25800, and chasing the air is still a matter of caution. Daily commentary: He Haihai: Three-month copper LME on Wednesday closed at $2,774 per ton in late night trading, down $8 from yesterday. Today's Shanghai copper prices showed a slight upward trend. Mainly near the month of change, the spread between the near and far future is too large, and the spread needs to be adjusted. The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on Wednesday that construction spending increased by 0.4% in July and was unchanged in June. Wall Street analysts surveyed by Reuters originally forecast that construction spending in July rose by 0.4%. US stocks opened lower on Wednesday, due to the suspension of crude oil supply again. The price of oil rebounded. Investors are cautiously waiting for Friday's non-farm payrolls data to be released when the market is worried about possible attacks and the Republican Party's break in the national convention in New York. The 16th LME announced newer inventory information shows that LME copper stocks increased by 6375 yesterday. Ton, the increase is still mainly concentrated in Singapore. As the current inventory pressure caused by the decline in inventory has always been a favorable tool for market speculation, changes in inventory, especially the increase, will naturally have a certain pressure on prices. The announcement of the LME copper option went smoothly and all the call options below 2700 passed smoothly. The effect on the market was weakened due to the problem of inventory. In the exchange rate market, the non-U.S. dollar trend is not strong, showing a different degree of accommodative decline. The data on the reduction of US crude oil inventories stimulated the rebound of international crude oil prices that evening, but the incentive for the non-US dollar trend was less. This is mainly because the market is mainly focused on the concerns about the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States in August. Although there were strikes in Peru, the dramatic increase in stocks in the previous period once again put the market under pressure. Judging from the current position structure, Lonco’s positions and trading volume are relatively small, and it is difficult for copper prices to be relatively large. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate mainly. Operational recommendations: Moderate short-selling for overseas express delivery: LME market report: London, September 2 news: Under the stop-loss pressure, the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark copper prices closed lower in the three months to close at 2,732 US dollars. Dealers said that the benchmark three-month copper price was still higher at $2,800 and the turnover was low. As the U.S. holiday holidays approached, the fund's selling increased, resulting in a stop loss, resulting in the breakdown of the support of $2,750. It once fell to a week low of 2,716.50 US dollars, and the support of the 100 day moving average near 2,715 US dollars. Analysts said that the two-day drop may be backed up by the $2,715 attempt. However, if this point falls, the next support level is $2,680. It is expected that the copper price will return to the 2,760-2,770 USD range in the three-month benchmark on the 3rd. Recently, strikes by Southern Peru Copper Co. Ltd. have given some support to the futures price of copper. The company’s annual copper production is 350,000 tons. It is expected that the three-month aluminum price in the short-term benchmark will be strongly supported at the level of US$1,680. Affected by the increase in inventories, the benchmark zinc price fell by 2.2% in the three months, and fell to US$952.50 in the session. It is expected that the support of 950 US dollars will be stronger. COMEX Copper Market Report: NEW YORK, September 2 (Reuters) - The December copper contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) closed lower on Thursday, weighed by technical selling pressure and fears of copper stocks increasing again. It was 123.80 cents lower and 127.70 cents higher throughout the day. December copper fell 2.9 cents to end at 124.80 cents. Traders said that the London Metal Exchange's (LME) copper inventories in Singapore increased by 825 metric tons, which caused the market to worry that copper inventories will increase. At the same time, the market is even more worried about the performance of copper stocks in the Far East. The above factors led to a stop loss surge, which accelerated the price drop. December copper price is expected to support 123 cents lower, and upward resistance is 128.50 cents. Copper stocks on LME2 fell by 150 metric tons to 111,175 metric tons. Copper inventories on COMEX1 fell by 695 short tons to 61,619 short tons.