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"Cost! The concept of domestic shale gas has been seriously exaggerated. If we rush to bid at a high price, then we will not be able to make ends meet." On December 21, 2012, a senior expert from the Sinopec Economic and Technological Research Institute said frankly.
He believes that with the repeated speculation of the shale gas concept in the domestic capital market, shale gas has become the most expensive energy source in China – the highest level of exploration investment in a single block is more than 1.7 billion yuan (the highest in the second round of bidding) The bid price), then even if the development of the block is successful, its production cost, operating cost, transportation cost and sales cost will reach a staggering figure - the price of domestic natural gas sales station is still below 3 yuan / cubic meter At the time, "this is definitely a loss-making sale."
It is understood that due to the low gas prices, energy giants who have invested heavily in the shale gas market in North America around 2009 are reducing their production and even planning to withdraw.
Crazy bidding
It is understood that in the second round of shale gas bidding, the enthusiasm of coal-fired state-owned enterprises and provincial energy investment companies and provincial geological system enterprises is extremely high. "They are almost at the cost of grabbing blocks."
According to the information obtained by the reporter, the final winner of the Chongqing Hanjiang block is Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd., which promised to invest 1.735 billion yuan in the bidding block for exploration; Hubei Hefeng Block won the bid for Fanghuadian Hubei Power Generation Co., Ltd. 100 million yuan; and Huadian Coal, which won the bid in the Fuyang block of Guizhou, is also planning to invest 1.19 billion yuan.
“Sinopec’s first round of bidding in the Nanchuan block promised to invest 590 million yuan in three years, which is eight times the amount of statutory investment, while Chongqing’s investment in Huaneng, Huadian Hubei and Huadian Coal has doubled that of Sinopec. Even twice, how can they make a profit?" On the day of the announcement of the winning bid, the above-mentioned senior officials of Sinopec Economic and Technological Research Institute questioned.
However, this kind of questioning was overwhelmed by the subsequent “disdain†of the central oil companies. Many people thought that PetroChina and Sinopec had mastered a large number of good blocks, so they did not bother to bid for high-priced shale gas blocks.
"It is really too high price." A senior executive of Guanghui Energy (600256.SH) admitted frankly. Previously, Guanghui Energy, as a potential shareholder of the private enterprise, was widely optimistic. However, in its bidding for the Hefeng block in Hubei, its bid price was only 1/3 of that of the winning bidder Fanghuadian Hubei Power Generation Co., Ltd.
The above-mentioned Guanghui executives believe that due to the crazy speculation of the shale gas concept in the capital market, the outside world is overly optimistic about China's future shale gas – thinking that China's shale gas development can form a scale like the US and Canada. Coupled with China's rapid growth in natural gas demand, it will lead to a good profitable view of shale gas development.
But the reality is: First, China's marine shale is mainly distributed in the western provinces of China and the southern provinces, unlike the United States, which is mainly in the plains. The second is the burial depth of shale gas, generally below 3,000 meters, and some reaching 4000-6000 meters. Third, China's shale gas distribution areas are often remote areas, without the support of pipeline systems. Once developed, long-distance pipelines need to be laid. All of this leads to overall exploration and development costs that are much higher than in the United States.
"Therefore, rushing into the shale gas field, and even the crazy bidding, will undoubtedly lead to losses, and even have to finally withdraw from this field." The above-mentioned Sinopec Institute of Economics and Technology said frankly.
In fact, a company that won the bid in the first round of shale gas bidding is now in a dilemma. According to industry insiders, after winning the bid, the company has received large subsidies from the Ministry of Land and the local government. With the continuous advancement of exploration, there are few subsidies left, but it has not yet succeeded.
Chinese style shale gas
"If the annual output of shale gas in China can reach more than 100 billion cubic meters by 2020, it is hopeful to change the development pattern of China's oil and gas resources and become an important pillar of China's energy." At that time, Yu Haifeng, deputy director of the Department of Geological Exploration of the Ministry of Land and Resources, said.
However, experts from Sinopec and other oil central enterprises are obviously not so optimistic.
Hu Dongfeng, chief expert of Sinopec Southern Exploration Company, once said that China's shale gas resource evaluation, reserves calculation and capacity prediction methods still need to be explored. The shale gas evaluation technology and core process technology are not fully grasped. The pre-evaluation cost is high, and the technology is tackling The investment is big. Moreover, the natural geographical features of southern China make the cost of land acquisition high, the cost of geological exploration is high, the investment in drilling is large, and the gas reservoir is buried deep, which causes high cost of drilling and fracturing, so mass production in the short term. There is still a big gap.
“I am more concerned about the pipeline problem. China’s gas pipeline is far from being laid out. However, the shale gas block that is currently being developed is mostly in the southwest and remote areas. So, once these resources are developed, how can they be transported? Timely transmission to the market, then the crux of CBM development will be replicated in the shale gas field," another Chinese oil expert said.
Crazy Hype: Shale Gas Bubble Game
The second round of shale gas tendering has not yet dispersed, and the four major oil companies have been widely affected by the oil industry: what makes the central enterprises such as PetroChina and Sinopec make billions of dollars in overseas oil and gas investment, But do not want to invest more in the development of domestic shale gas? ...
The second round of shale gas tendering has not yet dissipated, and the four major oil companies have been devastated by the oil industry. This has caused the oil industry, such as PetroChina and Sinopec, to make billions of dollars in overseas oil and gas investment. Reluctant to invest more in the development of domestic shale gas?