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Macroeconomic policies have been transformed into efforts to expand domestic demand, ensure stable and rapid economic growth, and the economic operating environment is tightening.
The first 10 months have laid a good foundation: the mechanical industry's operating situation in January-October is better than expected, which has laid a good foundation for the whole year.
At present, the product sales rate is still good: the overall rate of production and sales of the machinery industry in January-October is still at a good level (product sales rate of 97.54%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points year on year), indicating that the sales situation is acceptable.
At present, the company's hand-held orders are still full: According to the survey of some key enterprises, the cumulative order volume from January to September increased by 27% year-on-year, although the chain ratio has declined, but the production problem remains small this year.
In summary, we believe that: (1) the impact of the financial crisis on the machinery industry is lagging behind, and it is expected to be more fully visible next year, so it must not be taken lightly;
(2) The period of sustained and ultra-high-speed growth of the machinery industry has passed, and a turning point has emerged. In the future, we must prepare for "tight days";
(3) The "progressive" period in which most enterprises are easy to achieve growth has passed, the pressure on upgrading the industrial structure has increased, and the business climate has become more differentiated;
(4) The period of rapid growth in efficiency has passed, and the factors of increasing and decreasing profits have been concentrated, and the pressure to change the mode of extensive growth has increased;
(5) The period of rapid export growth has passed, but exports are still expected to achieve double-digit growth, and the structure of optimizing export industries is becoming increasingly urgent;
(6) Under the background of the country's macroeconomic policy shift to ensure steady and rapid economic growth, the economic industry may be in a low-to-low trend next year, and it is expected to continue to achieve double-digit growth.
(7) Among the major sub-sectors, after the high-speed growth of the domestic demand market of the auto industry with the largest weight, after a period of rapid economic growth, the growth rate will inevitably fall back in recent years. The export of cars and auto parts, which are very prosperous, will also be greatly affected by the financial crisis. Therefore, it is expected that the automotive industry will bid farewell to the rapid growth that has been going on for many years and return to moderate growth.
The electric power industry ranks second in the electrician industry. Although there are still many orders for power generation equipment in leading products, the power supply has been greatly alleviated recently, and due to the ultra-high-speed growth of power generation equipment in recent years, there are still a large number of units in power companies. It is yet to be installed, so it is expected that the new orders for thermal power equipment will drop sharply in the coming period, and the signed contracts are likely to be delayed or the goods cannot be recovered in time. In short, thermal power equipment manufacturers should prepare for a difficult day next year. However, nuclear power, hydropower and wind power are still expected to maintain normal growth.
Compared with power generation equipment, the demand situation of power transmission and transformation equipment is more optimistic. The state is increasing investment in urban network and rural network transformation, which will directly drive the growth of demand for power transmission and transformation equipment, and further promote the development of related equipment manufacturing.
The agricultural machinery industry is expected to maintain a good development momentum in the context of the country's efforts to increase support for agriculture, rural areas and farmers.
Development trend and prospect of machinery industry in 2009
It is hoped that the current macroeconomic environment at home and abroad will be more severe, and the impact of the financial crisis on the machinery industry has been and will continue to emerge;