Global methanol plant operating rate is expected to rebound

In 2011, global methanol demand reached 54 million tons. In the coming years, with the rapid development of emerging applications, the global methanol demand will soar to 85 million tons in 2015. By then, the global methanol excess capacity situation is expected to be effectively eased, and the average operating rate of methanol plants will increase from 60% to 65% in the past two years to about 80%. This is the information that the reporter obtained from the recent 2012 China International Conference on Nitrogen Fertilizer and Methanol.

Pang Xiongying, senior director of IHS Consulting China, conducted a detailed analysis of the global methanol market. He pointed out that from 2008 to 2011, the global methanol production capacity increased at an average annual rate of 10 million tons, and during this period, the growth of demand lags far behind the growth of production capacity. Due to a large excess of production capacity, the average operating rate of methanol plants is maintained at 60% to 65%. From 2012 to 2015, the global annual methanol production capacity is expected to be 3 million tons. At the same time, the demand for methanol in blended gasoline, methanol-made dimethyl ether and methanol-to-olefins will continue to grow rapidly, especially to In 2015, a large number of methanol-to-olefins projects in China were put into production. The consumption of methanol in this area will exceed 15 million tons. The rapid increase in demand is expected to raise the average operating rate of methanol plants to about 80%.

For the North American region, he said that in the past five years, the production of methyl tert-butyl ether in the area was significantly reduced due to the contamination of water sources by methyl tert-butyl ether, which resulted in a 30% reduction in the consumption of methanol. In the next few years, the demand and production of methanol in the region will remain stagnant and there will be no major development.

The European region has consumed about 8 million tons of methanol annually in recent years, and by 2015, the region will consume about 9 million tons of methanol. The production of methanol in the region is mainly based on natural gas. Due to the lack of raw material advantages, the production of methanol is declining. In the future, methanol consumption in the region will mainly depend on imports.

The contrast with the mature economies is the Middle East. Thanks to its raw material advantages, the methanol industry in the region has been booming over the past five years, with production volume doubling from more than 3 million tons to 7 million tons. In the next few years, methanol production in the region will continue to increase substantially. Pang Xiongying further pointed out that due to the low price of raw natural gas, the production cost of methanol in the Middle East is only about 60 US dollars / ton, even if shipped to China, plus freight costs are also within 200 US dollars / ton, the competitive advantage is very prominent.

Northeast Asia is the major consumer of methanol, accounting for more than 60% of global consumption. Methanol production and consumption in the region is basically concentrated in mainland China. The consumption of methanol in the Chinese market is a global concern.