Low market demand, high copper prices are expected to continue the shock

Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) closed higher on Monday as expectations of China’s central bank’s relaxation of monetary policy and the euro’s negotiations with Greece’s second round of bailouts were boosted. On February 20th, London time, the three-month copper of LME rose 0.8% to close at 8,240 US dollars. Copper prices rose by nearly 4%, the largest one-week drop in nine weeks. Tom Kendall, an analyst at Credit Suisse, said that China's copper imports have not yet recovered, but the US economy shows signs of a steady recovery, and the Chinese central bank has begun to loose monetary support, which has a support role for copper prices. Last Friday, the LME copper stocks fell by 4,750 tons to 306,375 tons, and cancelled 85,400 tons of warehouse receipts, which accounted for 27.87% of the total inventory.

The market’s concern about Greece’s default has not dissipated. On the 17th, the Greek one-year government bond yield exceeded 600% for the first time, reaching 629.403%, soaring 65.527 basis points in a single day, setting a record for single-day gains in global government bond yields. On the 17th, the Credit Suisse Group issued a report stating that the possibility of the largest disorderly breach of contract in the history of Greek detonation after March 20 is still rising.

In an interview with Vice Premier Wang Qishan of the Chinese State Council, Japan’s Finance Minister Anzhuo said that China and Japan agreed to jointly respond to the request of the International Monetary Organization’s injection of capital to assist countries in responding to the European debt crisis. However, member states of the euro zone must step up efforts to deal with the crisis. The IMF is seeking for member countries to further increase the size of their capital injections, increase their lending capacity by 500 billion U.S. dollars, and assist the euro zone countries in responding to the European debt crisis.

According to data released by the Japan Copper Wire and Cable Manufacturers Association on Monday, Japan’s copper wire and copper cable shipments in January decreased by 1.2% compared to the same period last year to approximately 56,000 tons, due to the decline in demand from utilities and from electronic component manufacturers and others. The exporter's orders reduced the impact. According to the association, Japan’s copper and copper cable shipments in December were revised to 57,811 tons, and Japan’s copper and copper cable shipments in January decreased by 4.7% compared with December.

A spokesman for the Collahuasi Mining Department, Chile’s third-largest copper mine, has resumed work stoppages due to heavy snowstorms and production has not been affected by bad weather. It is reported that Collahuasi mine was suspended due to heavy snowstorms on Sunday. The mine is jointly owned by the two mining companies XstrataPlc and AngloAmericanPlc. The 2010 production was 504,000 tons. The northern region of Chile, which has a very rich copper resource, has received heavy rain, snow and hail over the past few days. Anglo American Resources Group stated that its mining and natural resources subsidiary in Chile produced 59999 tons of copper in 2011, a 3.9% decrease from the previous year. The decline in total production was mainly attributable to the decline in ore grade at the Collahuasi mine, which led to a drop in production, workers' enthalpies and bad weather. Anglo American Group and diversified miners Xstrata PLC each hold 44% of the shares in Collahuasi Copper Mine, and the remaining 12% is held by a Japanese society headed by Mitsui. This phenomenon is bound to affect the short-term concerns about the production of copper ore, and it is expected to give some support to the price of copper.

A recent survey of land and resources over the past decade shows that the total amount of mineral resources in the entire Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is expected to reach 80 million tons of copper, 2,000 tons of gold, and 30 million tons of lead and zinc, which is expected to become China's largest resource reserve base. The project has found 32 large-scale super-large deposits on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, with a potential economic value of 2.7 trillion yuan***. The new resource reserves include: 31.94 million tons of copper, 15.19 million tons of lead and zinc, 569 tons of gold, and 23015 tons of silver, equivalent to 54%, 12%, 15%, and 21% of the country's total reserves of reserves 12 years ago. This lays a solid foundation for the national non-ferrous market under international competition to become more nationalized. In the future, it will also strive for autonomy in the dominant pricing power. Since the second half of 2011, important non-ferrous metals have already demonstrated self-market leadership. With the trend of individuality, LME has even followed the pace of Shanghai ** copper prices in the fourth quarter of 2011.

Shanghai electrolytic copper spot price discount 400 yuan / ton to discount 280 yuan / ton, flat water copper transaction price 58900-59100 yuan / ton, premium copper transaction price 58950-59150 yuan / ton. The average price of 59,115 yuan per ton. In Shandong, Jinan copper coils are reported at 63500-81000 yuan per ton, copper rods are offered at 63500-68000 yuan per ton, and copper belts are quoted at 65000-70000 yuan per ton. LME February 20 copper stocks 305,875 tons, a total of 2,550 tons of inflows, outflow of 3,050 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous day.

The People's Bank of China announced on Friday that it lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points, which is intended to stimulate the economy and suggest looser monetary policy in China. This will help release more than 500 billion yuan in liquidity and boost the domestic copper demand market. Shanghai copper finished lower on Monday, and its price in early trading was higher in the morning. However, the short-term copper price fluctuated later and the final 1205 contract fell 1%. From the perspective of transactions and positions, the 1205 contract substantially increased the position by 34,992 lots, and the trading volume increased by 65,000 compared with the previous trading day. Market funds showed signs of entry. From a technical point of view, Shanghai Iron and Steel 1205 contract integer 60,000 line pressure, such as the country in the short term there is no major trend in infrastructure, the demand has not been given a new boost, copper prices are still entangled. Do not look at the long-term market operation, short-term participation in the approach to the idea of ​​shock, wait for the direction clear after the opportunity to enter the market.