Macroeconomics in 2013 is expected to close

Summary The closing data for 2013 will be announced in the middle and late of this month. Judging from the current institutional forecasts, the macroeconomic data for 2013 is expected to close with the word "stable". It is widely expected that the CPI year-on-year increase in December 2013 will fall back to...
The closing data for 2013 will be announced in the middle and late of this month. Judging from the current institutional forecasts, the macroeconomic data for 2013 is expected to close with the word "stable". It is widely expected that the CPI year-on-year growth rate will fall back to 3% in December 2013, prices will fall steadily, and investment and industrial added value may fall back, indicating that economic growth is also steadily declining.

In 2013, the price increase has remained within the target of 3.5%. The highest increase in the whole year was in February and October, both of which were 3.2%. In the fourth quarter, the CPI year-on-year growth rate gradually declined.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, pointed out that since December last year, food prices have continued to rise slightly, and new price increases have increased, but the hikes have returned to zero. Therefore, the CPI growth in December may be around 2.6%, compared with last month. Significant callback. CITIC Securities also predicted in the research report that the December CPI rose by 0.4% from the previous month, and the year-on-year increase was around 2.6%.

At the same time as the price correction, other macroeconomic data at the end of the year are also falling steadily. Judging from the leading indicators, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the manufacturing PMI for December was 51%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but the index remained in the expansion range for 15 consecutive months, indicating that the economy is steadily declining.

The final value of HSBC PMI released by HSBC in December also showed that the final value in December was unchanged at the initial value, still 50.5%, and the final value last month was 50.8%. This is the fifth consecutive month that the index is above the watershed, indicating that the manufacturing industry is still in a continuous recovery channel.

“The decline in the final value of HSBC China's manufacturing industry in December was mainly due to the slowdown in output growth, but new orders continued to grow steadily, which also allowed PMI to be above 50% for five consecutive months.” HSBC Greater China Chief Economics Qu Hongbin said, "The recovery momentum that began in August 2013 will continue into 2014."

According to the forecast of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, due to the higher base factor in the fourth quarter, the fixed asset investment from January to December was about 19.8%, and the growth rate was slightly lower than that of the previous month. The growth rate of industrial added value in December will also be slightly smaller. It has dropped to about 9.8%. It is expected that the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter will be around 7.7%, which is slightly lower than the previous quarter.

CITIC Securities expects that domestic and foreign demand will be closed smoothly in December, investment growth will be steady at 20%, consumption growth will slightly rebound to around 13.9%, and export growth will fall back to -6.8%. In addition, considering the base factor and the fact that the micro-power data growth in December is better than the historical period, the industrial added value is expected to slow down slightly to 9.8% in December.

Xu Shaoshi, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said in a report to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress last week that the economic growth rate for the whole year of 2013 will reach 7.6%, higher than the target of 7.5% set at the beginning of the year. Moreover, the main macro-control targets such as employment, prices, and international payments are basically realized.

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