Monoammonium phosphate prices will fall

At present, the monoammonium phosphate market shows a tendency of high consolidation. The factory price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate is mostly 2650 to 2700 yuan (t price, the same below), and the factory price of 58% powdered monoammonium phosphate is mostly 2700 to 2800 yuan. , 55% of granular ammonium phosphate factory prices are mostly 2700 ~ 2750 yuan. Compared with the highest price in the previous period, there is a downward adjustment of about 50 yuan, but it still stays at a high level. Looking at the market outlook, the price of monoammonium phosphate is facing a downward trend. The main reasons are as follows:

First, the price increase in the previous period was too large. The price of monoammonium phosphate continued to rise after August and accelerated after October. In a short period of one month, it rose sharply by 500-600 yuan, reaching the highest point in mid-November, and the content of monoammonium phosphate was 55%. The factory price is generally more than 2,700 yuan, compared with the July market, most of the increase of 800 to 850 yuan, a high of more than 900 yuan, an increase of up to 45%. The increase range of other fertilizer varieties is generally 30% to 35%, and monoammonium phosphate has become one of the largest varieties of chemical fertilizers. In the current situation where the fertilizer market as a whole is beginning to decline, the possibility of a drop in monoammonium phosphate is high.

The second is the weakening of demand. Monoammonium phosphate is mainly used for the production of compound fertilizers. The price of monoammonium phosphate in the previous period rose sharply, which was mainly driven by the demand of downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers. Due to the weak trend of the fertilizer market in the first half of the year, compound fertilizer manufacturers generally control raw material inventory, resulting in low inventory. After August, the fertilizer market improved significantly, and compound fertilizer companies started production at full capacity. The demand for monoammonium phosphate increased sharply and drove up its price sharply. However, the waiting-for-sale sentiment of high-priced raw materials by compound fertilizer companies is obviously intensified, and the purchase speed has been controlled, and they have been changed to current use; at the same time, as the sales of compound fertilizers have not been smooth, the operating rate has declined, and the actual demand for monoammonium phosphate has decreased. Also declined.

The third is the decline in production costs. The price of raw materials * yellow has dropped from about 1,700 yuan in the previous period to about 1,400 yuan in the current period. The factory price has dropped from nearly 3,900 yuan in the previous period to about 3,000 yuan at present, and the low price is only about 2,800 yuan. The raw material cost of monoammonium phosphate has decreased significantly, providing a basis for falling prices.

Fourth, exports were blocked and market supply increased. In the first half of the year, the export situation of monoammonium phosphate was not good, but in the second half of the year, due to the significant improvement in the international market and the entry into the low-tariff period, the export volume of monoammonium phosphate in China increased significantly. After July, the monthly export volume was more than 100,000 tons. In August and September, it was as high as 210,000 tons and 200,000 tons respectively. However, monthly output of monoammonium phosphate in China was also about 650,000 tons, which is equivalent to about 30% of the output is for export. From January to October this year, China exported a total of 770,000 tons of monoammonium phosphate, a substantial increase of 71.1% from 450,000 tons in the same period last year. As the National Tariff Commission has issued a notification of tariff adjustments, the export tariffs for monoammonium phosphate and other varieties will be raised from 7% in the previous year to 110% in this year. The export gate is basically closed and monoammonium phosphate can only be sold domestically.

In addition, the output of monoammonium phosphate is increasing. From January to September this year, domestic production of monoammonium phosphate totaled 5.87 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%. The obstruction of exports and the increase in output have caused a significant increase in the domestic market supply. As market competition intensifies, monoammonium phosphate prices will fall.