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The market is "hot"
Since the second half of 2013, with the introduction of various preferential industrial policies, polysilicon prices have started to rise moderately. The spot price increased from 120,000 yuan/ton at the end of 2012 to around 140,000 yuan/ton at the end of 2013, and some enterprises that have been shut down for a long time have gradually resumed production.
According to Zhao Jiasheng, president of the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, since 2014, China's polysilicon industry has shown a comprehensive recovery and steady growth. At present, the effective production capacity of domestic polysilicon enterprises is about 150,000 tons per year. In the first half of this year, China's polysilicon industry achieved sales revenue of 9.58 billion yuan, up 144.8% year-on-year, achieving a profit of about 600 million yuan, and an additional investment of about 6.5 billion yuan. In the first half of the year, affected by the support of the national industrial policy and the strong downstream demand, the domestic spot price of polysilicon showed a trend of rapid growth and slowdown, which rose rapidly from RMB 137,000 per ton in early January to RMB 167,000. As of the end of June 2014, the average price of polysilicon increased by 29.3% year-on-year, and the average price of components increased by 7.3%; the output of polysilicon reached 62,000 tons, an increase of 100% year-on-year, accounting for about 41% of the total global production; From the beginning of the year to the increase of 7 to 16; polysilicon effective capacity utilization rate of 86%, an increase of 59%.
Industry insiders said that the recovery of the polysilicon industry is not unrelated to the overall launch of the domestic PV market.
However, what is worrying is that when the domestic polysilicon market recovered, the market was once again eagerly awaited, and even some signs of “overheating†appeared.
According to the incomplete statistics of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Silicon Branch, in the next 2-3 years, China's new polysilicon production capacity may reach 150,000 tons. Among them, the newly built and proposed production capacity is 120,000 tons/year, including 90,000 tons/year in Inner Mongolia, 20,000 tons/year in Shaanxi, and 10,000 tons/year in Xinjiang. The newly added capacity is 50,000 tons/year through technical transformation, including Inner Mongolia. Dunan Silicon Industry, Inner Mongolia Shenzhou Silicon Industry, Asia Silicon Industry Qinghai Company, Jiangsu Zhongneng Company, Xinjiang Sichuan Ruineng Company, Chongqing Daxin Energy Company, etc. At the same time, there are many new investors, and blind investment has broken out again.
Zhao Jiasheng said that in addition to new domestic production capacity, the supply of polysilicon imports will also exacerbate the domestic market surplus.
Industry experts believe that the current world economic recovery is still relatively slow, international trade disputes have never stopped, and even intensified, the domestic polysilicon investment is overheating. At the same time, coupled with the current domestic production capacity and import supply, the domestic supply of polysilicon in the future will be very large, and the demand is not likely to reach such a level within a few years. To fully consider the advantages of technology and talent, as well as current and future market supply and demand, it is necessary to conduct a comprehensive investigation of prudent investment. At the same time, processing trade has become the main means for importing polysilicon to evade normal tariff regulation, which has greatly weakened the effect that China's "double-reverse" should achieve. Foreign countries' import of polysilicon through processing trade still has a greater impact on the domestic market.
Hidden crisis
In fact, the crisis behind the prosperity of the polysilicon industry is not only the blind investment of enterprises and the disorderly expansion of production capacity. At present, the domestic polysilicon industry, in the new round of market competition environment, in the face of the pressure of continuous improvement of foreign product technology, technology upgrading and elimination of backward production capacity, is a situation that domestic polysilicon enterprises must break.
An irresistible fact is that polysilicon companies such as the United States, South Korea, and the European Union do have a greater threat to local Chinese companies because they hold the core technology of production.
According to Wang Yaxiong, dean of the School of Chemical Engineering at Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology, an important reason for the risk of the domestic polysilicon industry is the lack of core technology and key equipment. The lack of polysilicon purification technology is one of the root causes of China's photovoltaic industry subject to Europe, America, Japan and other countries.
According to Xinhua Energy reporter, nowadays, the production technology of polysilicon is mainly to improve the Siemens method. Only the United States, South Korea, Japan and Germany have mastered this production process in the world, and their production cost has an absolute advantage over Chinese enterprises. However, these polysilicon giants, with their technical advantages and cost advantages, continue to drive down prices in the international and domestic markets, create trade “frictionsâ€, and set up technical barriers, which once caused domestic industry authorities and enterprises to feel “headacheâ€.
A person in charge of polysilicon enterprises who did not want to be named told Xinhua Energy that at present, China's polysilicon enterprises are weak in international competitiveness, and the dumping of foreign products has caused great damage to the domestic polysilicon market. The domestic polysilicon enterprises originally had excess capacity and the operating rate was high. It is also insufficient. After experiencing the “roller coaster†in the industry, some enterprises that can barely maintain their operations face the “dumping†of foreign companies, and they have to “stop†and even go bankrupt.
Under the enthusiasm of the industry, on July 20, 2012, the Ministry of Commerce issued the No. 40 and No. 41 announcements in 2012, and decided to conduct anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on imported solar grade polysilicon originating in the United States. Call it a "double-reverse" survey.
Market analysts pointed out that since the "double opposition" of the Ministry of Commerce, as of now, the trend of polysilicon import assault dumping is still rampant, and the low-priced dumping tide has not stopped. The direct impact on the domestic polysilicon industry cannot be ignored.
Song Heping, commissioner of the Bureau of Import and Export Fair Trade of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that the polysilicon industry needs long-term development, and government trade relief alone will not work. After a temporary dilemma, companies must be painful and trace the root causes of the difficulties. Increase the comprehensive competitiveness of enterprises to resist risks, and resolutely cannot repeat the same mistakes. In particular, large-scale domestic backbone enterprises must put forward higher requirements and become more powerful, and enhance their comprehensive strength. They must play a leading role in the industry and lead the healthy development of the entire industry.
However, the formation of a “threat†to the crystalline silicon market is not only due to the market factors such as the technology and trade friction of the product itself. The monocrystalline silicon technology products, which have always been unimportant to the industry, have suddenly collided in the long-term polysilicon market, and have Want to seize market share with polysilicon products.
Some insiders have predicted to Xinhua Energy reporter that in the next 2-3 years, the sales of high-efficiency monocrystalline silicon solar modules are expected to increase significantly in China. Monocrystalline silicon products are not only the most efficient, but also economical and efficiency matching.
Changjiang Securities Market analysts believe: "The cost of monocrystalline silicon products still has potential to decline, overseas demand is growing steadily, and the domestic market is gradually accepting the trend of replacing polysilicon. By 2018, monocrystalline silicon and polycrystalline silicon will each account for 50%. ""
In the face of many “hidden worries†in the domestic polysilicon market, Wang Bohua, secretary-general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that in terms of imports, the country still maintains a high level. In 2014, the scale of China's polysilicon production increased significantly. It is estimated that the annual output will exceed 130,000 tons. Compared with 80,000 tons in 2013, it will increase by 62.5% year-on-year. The first three quarters of polysilicon production have reached 98,000 tons. Affected by internal and external factors, there are currently 18 polysilicon production enterprises in China, with an effective production capacity of 155,000 tons, and the company's profitability is getting better. However, some enterprises are still at a breakeven point or even a loss, and the operating conditions are not optimistic.
Depth adjustment
Faced with many "crisis" hidden in the domestic and international polysilicon market, Zhao Yuwen, a photovoltaic industry expert, believes that in the long run, the photovoltaic industry is developing at a positive rate, but will still be in a stage of deep adjustment.
Analyst Huang Min of Minsheng Securities pointed out that polysilicon enterprises must increase investment in technology research and development and enhance the competitiveness of the whole industry. Therefore, accelerating industrial restructuring and upgrading, accelerating technological innovation, reducing costs, and improving quality are the fundamentals of industry development.
According to Xinhua Energy reporter, the reasons for the high cost of China's polysilicon manufacturing industry, in addition to technology, the contradiction between industrial system and industrial structure is fundamental. The industrial model of polysilicon manufacturing in China is “isolated and closed production modeâ€, and almost all polysilicon manufacturing enterprises in the world adopt “integrated chemical joint venture modeâ€.
Zhao Yuwen said that China's polysilicon industry must fundamentally get rid of the contradiction of overcapacity and insufficient production. In the long run, technology is an important aspect, and changing the industrial structure and industrial system is the most fundamental. The full launch of the domestic PV market has changed the situation that China's polysilicon terminal demand is subject to foreign countries and supported the development of the domestic polysilicon industry. However, despite policy support, China's PV installation still faces many problems, including the difficulty of grid connection in large-scale PV power plants and the difficulty of timely subsidies. Distributed PV power plants have difficult project location selection, poor economic evaluation, and difficult financing. And other issues.
Industry experts told Xinhua Energy that China's polysilicon industry has just started, and polysilicon is a basic raw material that can meet the needs of future renewable energy. The development prospects are very bright. Enterprises must increase investment in technology research and development to enhance the competitiveness of the whole industry. Industrial restructuring and upgrading, accelerating technological innovation, reducing costs, and improving quality are the fundamentals of industry development. At the same time, international trade friction, the counterattack of monocrystalline silicon products is also a market factor that domestic polysilicon enterprises must pay attention to.
Zhao Yongqiang, general manager of Inner Mongolia Fengwei New Energy Group Co., Ltd. pointed out that the polysilicon industry cannot forget the market situation of “big ups and downs†in the past few years. It is necessary to grasp the investment scale and rational development, otherwise the overcapacity crisis will come again, bringing the entire industry Come to disaster.
Polysilicon recovery behind the hidden crisis adjustment period or future
Abstract As the global PV industry market picks up, the polysilicon market has also sent a lot of good news. Domestic polysilicon enterprises have begun to make a fuss. At one time, a large number of enterprises have resumed production, and new, proposed, and technological transformation projects have emerged. The investment boom has once again hit. In this regard,...
With the global PV industry market picking up, the polysilicon market has also received a lot of good news. Domestic polysilicon enterprises have begun to make a fuss. At one time, a large number of enterprises have resumed production. New construction, proposed construction, and technological transformation projects have also emerged, and a new round of investment. The craze is coming again. In this regard, market analysts believe that after the domestic polysilicon industry has experienced great ups and downs, nowadays, while facing the recovery of the market, it is necessary to fully see the hidden hidden dangers behind the market. Do not blindly expand production capacity and follow suit again, otherwise the whole industry Or will repeat the same mistakes.