Reasons for Large and Medium-sized Steel Plants to Raise the Factory Price

Since July, domestic macro-messages have continuously transmitted positive signals. Market sentiment has once soared. Some economic data showed signs of weakness in June. The inflationary sentiment slowly returned to calm. However, after another wave of waves broke out, Li Keqiang's speech at the grassroots level caused spontaneous expansion of market sentiment, and he anticipates the introduction of stimulus measures. Shanghai Stock Index rose 3.23%. Some steel prices rose steadily. Steel mills also had some movements. Whether this action will be automatically shut down after the brief “heartbeat” of the last time, or will remain so high for a long time. temperature?

Economic data continued to show signs of weakness, suggesting that the economic growth rate will continue to slow, indicating that the domestic situation has further deteriorated. In the joints at the middle of the year, Li Keqiang emphasized that "stable growth, structural adjustment, and reform are promoted." "Economic growth rates, employment levels, etc. do not slip out of the "lower limit," and price increases do not exceed the "upper limit." Let the gloomy market see the "hope" and let the market misinterpret it as the introduction of stimulus measures. It is true that the market is promising and hopes are great. However, it does not rely on stimulus measures (and it will not be introduced in the short term). Instead, it hopes for scientific development, structural adjustment to promote economic restructuring and upgrading, energy conservation, and emission reduction. Cleaner production eliminates outdated production capacity, as well as various core dividends such as new urbanization, flexible and controllable monetary policies, and other in-depth reforms. It may only be quite painful at present, and it may even be impossible to start. However, it is believed that some enterprises have begun to take advantage of the reforms in the past six months. It is precisely because of this, some companies have begun to take the initiative to drive the market.

On July 10, Wuhan Iron and Steel was the first to issue the steel product reservation policy in August and raised the ex-factory price of some products by RMB 50-180/ton, of which the hot rolled auto dual-phase steel RCL590F was increased by RMB 180/ton, and the cold-rolled coil was increased by RMB 80/ton; Immediately afterwards, on the 11th, Sha Steel raised the price of building materials by RMB 80-120/ton in mid-July, including rebar increase by RMB 80/ton, high-line and coil by RMB 120/ton; and Baosteel ended for two months. The ex-factory price of steel products was lowered. In August, the ex-factory price of carbon steel sheet was flat. The late ex-factory prices of steel mills rose steadily, and they all expressed their expectation that the market outlook would be optimistic and warm the market. In contrast, the crude steel production in June seems to have this ni.

According to the statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association, the output of steel mills increased in June and has been rising. In the second half of June, the average daily output of crude steel of major steel enterprises was 1.762,400 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons, an increase of 0.97% from the previous period, and the average daily production was estimated to reach 2,811.2 tons, and the increase of 17,000 tons was up 0.78% from the previous month, close to the historical high. point. The output is so high that the steelmakers have not considered whether they will continue to increase the overcapacity and reduce the market's confidence in the later period. They must have considered it and they are currently very strict. It may be because they currently have such production capacity and confidence. . However, the daily average crude steel output of non-key steel companies has remained within the conservative range for one month. The average daily production value in late June was estimated at 419,000 tons, which is the same as that in May. What is the current situation of raw materials and funds?

As of the end of the 13th, according to the data: [Iron ore] 65% of Brazilian ore price is 925 yuan/ton, 63.5% of Indian ore is priced at 875 yuan/ton, Platts index is 125 dollars, up 2 dollars; The price of alloy billet is around 3200 yuan, the general carbon billet price is around 3120; the average price of scrap is 2280 yuan/ton; the average price of coking coal is 1224 yuan/ton, and the remaining raw materials continue to rebound after the coke is out. The cost support continues to strengthen.

In terms of capital, this week the central bank opened the market again with zero operations. Due to zero funds due this week, the market will have no net funds to put in. The overnight repo rate is 3.8%, which is a small increase of 20 basis points from the previous trading day; last week The General Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China decentralized the Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Economic Structural Adjustment and Transformation and Upgrade. The China Banking Regulatory Commission proposed ten measures to “revitalize stock funds”; in the first week of July, the four major banks added 168 billion yuan of credit to the entire month of June. The new credits show that the tightness of market funds is targeted and the overall situation is moderately tight.

In view of the above, there is no doubt that the economic growth rate will continue to slow down. The stimulus measures will not be introduced. In fact, everyone knows well and the reform will continue to intensify. It will be the future direction of development, and the long-term appreciable demand will not understand the recent thirst. The sluggish release of short-term demand is the current reality, and there will be no relaxation of moderately tight funding. Although the existing mills have taken the lead in raising the ex-factory price, Bernanke said that international banks will maintain the current loose monetary policy, while the downstream demand is difficult to support the current high market sentiment, and many institutions have once again lowered the expected growth rate of China's GDP, the official first The GDP value of the second quarter has not yet been truly launched. The mid-year economic situation conference has not yet been convened. This time the market may heat up or may be a "triggered heartbeat." It is one of the long-term volatility in the future. It is only a question of the length of time but the steel market. The overall trend of the market is still slightly up.

Steel factory's ex-factory price continues to increase

Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. took the lead in issuing the steel price policy in August this year. The ex-works price of some steel products, such as hot rolled auto duplex steel, hot rolled coil, cold coil, home appliances and wire steel, was raised by 50-180 yuan from July, which was the first time in 2013. Raise the ex-factory price four times. Baosteel also launched its steel price policy in August on the 11th. The price of main types of carbon steel sheets remained stable. This was the first round of flat-plate action after Baosteel's sharp decline in several months, showing signs of cautious bullish outlook. Followed by the leading domestic construction steel production enterprises, Shagang also released the construction price policy for construction steel in mid-July on the 11th. The ex-factory price of steel products such as wire rods, plates, screws, etc. was raised by 80~120 yuan/ton, for several consecutive years. After lowering the ex-factory price, the ex-factory price of construction steel was raised for the first time.

Analysts pointed out that long products and steel plates have changed their previous ex-factory price adjustment strategies in the off-season demand in almost the same period. The mainstream steel mills have steadily increased their prices for the latest issue. Since the bottom of the domestic steel market stabilized and stabilized in June, upstream steel mills have further consolidated At the bottom of the price, the willingness to continue to increase the spot steel price is continued; this shows that steel companies have strong confidence in the steel market in the later period.

Steel prices hit their biggest weekly gains

Speaking of steel mills dare to increase the ex-factory price in a “contrarian” trend in the traditional off-season, its emboldening should be related to the recent warming of the steel market. In the previous week, domestic steel prices ushered in the biggest weekly gains during the year, among which the average price of construction steel such as wire snails rose by around RMB 40-75/t in one week, and the average prices for plate and hot rolled steel rose by RMB 25~45/t. The one-week increase in long products was significantly stronger than that of the plate; the rebound in the bottom of the steel market was significant.

According to market monitoring, as of July 10, the average price of domestic 3rd grade rebar rebars was 3441 yuan, up 73 yuan; the average price of 6.5 high-line lines was 3427 yuan, up 35 yuan; the average price of 5.5 hot coils was 3555 yuan, up 62 yuan; 1.0 average cold-rolled sheet price of 4,487 yuan, up 4 yuan; 20 plate average price of 3,538 yuan, up 36 yuan. Since this week, domestic steel prices have rebounded after a strong rebound, and continue to tamper with the price base. While there has been some cooling down, the active price cuts are rare.

Raw material costs increase Steel mills are forced to increase steel prices

Downstream spot steel prices bottomed out and stimulated steel mills to increase their quotation is one aspect, while raw material prices continued to rebound, and increased production cost pressures forced steelmakers to transfer cost pressures to downstream markets through upward ex-factory prices. From the raw material market survey data, the price of imported iron ore before July 11 was between 120~128 US dollars/ton, and the 62% of Platts' index was reported at US$125/ton on July 11; compared with 105-years in the same period in June. The price of 110 US dollars / ton is about 10% higher. The increase in the price of imported ore will inevitably drive the ex-factory price of steel products to rise accordingly.

Weaknesses in the second half of the year or mainly in favor

The steel mills started to increase their ex-factory prices at this stage. In addition to the increase in cost pressures and the increase in spot steel prices, steel companies’ confidence in the market in the second half of the year has increased significantly. In the first half of this year, the domestic economy continued to weaken, and it is expected that GDP growth in the second quarter will fall back to about 7.5%, approaching the target lower limit. Central high-level officials recently said that the economic growth rate does not slip out of the “lower limit”, implying that a relatively short-term may be introduced in the near future. The more moderate economic stimulus policies have undoubtedly injected a strong boost to the steel market, which has long been lacking in support for this year.

In addition, in order to deal with the increasingly severe haze weather, the environmental protection department has successively commemorated "the most severe" environmental protection measures in history. At present, relevant ministries and commissions such as the Ministry of Environmental Protection are stepping up their efforts to formulate detailed governance policies and "stabbing" high-pollution industries such as steel; Therefore, although the expected output reduction of the steel mills in June has been lost, the iron and steel industry under the pressure of environmental protection in the later period still has a greater hope of reducing production. In order to digest some backward production capacity of steel, cement, etc., the decision-making floor requested the continued development of railway construction. It is expected that the investment in railway construction may be slightly over-valued this year. At the same time, the policies for the new urbanization plan gradually emerged. The Development and Reform Commission confirmed that a series of favorable prospects for the new ten major urban agglomerations are expected to be visible; the market's confidence in the second half of the year has increased significantly. This is also where steelmakers dare to increase their ex-factory prices in the off-season.

On the whole, the current steel market is at the bottom recovery stage; it can be assumed that the worst time period this year should have passed, steel prices are unlikely to have room for a major vice decline in the future; while the spot steel prices have bottomed out, Domestic steel companies will follow the trend to increase ex-factory prices and expand profit margins; therefore, we believe that the new phase of ex-factory prices of other steel mills immediately following them should be mostly stable, and stimulate the price of steel to continue to increase. Rise, steady bottom results.