Review of Development Status of Non-ferrous Metal Market in June 2012

The external economic situation has recently deteriorated. The future growth situation in Europe and the United States will be complicated and confusing. As a result, the growth of external demand and the uncertainty of domestic currency conditions will increase significantly. Coupled with the fact that the domestic economy is likely to emerge in the third quarter, the metal rebound will face destocking. pressure. However, the emergence of a “cutting policy” at the bottom of interest rates also means “bottom of the market” or not far away, and it is expected that metal will enter the bottom of shock phase.

Downstream consumption is now "Dawn"

First, the demand for electricity in the copper industry, which has a major impact on copper, aluminum and galvanizing, has clearly improved in June. The most important sign is that the grid bidding delayed more than 2 to 3 months compared to previous years has been fully launched. Recently, the third centralized bidding of State Grid Corporation of China has been announced. It is estimated that the bidding equipment will cost about RMB 2.8 billion (excluding the MV switchgear And cable), compared with the third batch last year increased by 75%; the first half of this year, State Grid Corporation purchased about 10.6 billion yuan of main equipment (excluding medium-voltage switchgear and cables), an increase of about 40% over the first half of last year.

Second, the auto industry is picking up. From January to May, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 8,003,000 vehicles and 8,023,500 vehicles, respectively, and the cumulative year-on-year increase was 3.19% and 1.70% respectively. The drop in oil prices, the drop in commodity prices, and the likely introduction of new automobile consumption stimulus policies may make the automobile industry fundamentals better in the second half than in the first half of the year. As the largest consumer of zinc is automotive galvanized sheet, in addition to automotive aluminum, copper wire and lead batteries are conducive to the recovery of non-ferrous metal orders, considering the car inventory pressure factors, it is expected that the above-mentioned boost will appear until or after the third quarter.

Thirdly, the new round of interest rate cuts in China has started, coupled with the large space for reserve requirement ratio cuts and the increase in state financial expenditure, it can be determined that social capital will enter a new round of easing, and liquidity will be partially offset. The positive effect of the property purchase restriction policy and loan limiting policy. In May, the country’s sales of commercial housing totaled 73 million square meters, a 15% increase from the previous quarter. The most important thing is that real estate investment has stopped falling. In May, investment in real estate development in the country totaled 638 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year.

In addition, the home appliances industry also benefited from energy-saving subsidies, and sales in the countryside have picked up. In May, the country sold 6.81 million units of home appliances to the countryside, achieving sales of 18.28 billion yuan, an increase of 67.1% and 72.6% year-on-year respectively.

In the end, the cost support of some varieties has become stronger, and electrolytic aluminum has fallen below the industry average production cost line when it fell below 16,000 yuan. We estimate that the cost of electrolytic aluminum will be around 16300-16500 yuan/ton, and the cost of zinc will also be above 15,000 yuan/ton. As a result, refined zinc production in May decreased by 4.7% compared with the same period of last year. As long as the demand does not weaken without limits, the cost support will eventually emerge.

Some varieties of storage start

As a number of varieties fell below the cost, some local governments initiated the collection and storage of some varieties. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of Shaanxi Province recently stated that the non-ferrous metals such as titanium, molybdenum, zinc, vanadium, and precious metals that are suitable for warehousing have been selected for storage and storage. Actively support Shaanxi Nonferrous Metals Group and Northwest Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. to arrange the collection and storage of sixteen non-ferrous products in five major categories, with a total of 120.72 million tons of stored products. For the liquidity ** formed by the increase of reserves, a certain percentage of the ** amount will be given as interest. We actively fulfilled the tax rebate policy for equipment manufacturing enterprises with sales revenue of over RMB 1 billion, fulfilled the supporting policies of 20 key PV companies and related policies in the textile, forestry and food industries.

U.S. dollar adjustments spread out simultaneously

Overseas, new rounds of global rescue measures are frequent. First, the United Kingdom announced last Thursday that it would provide 100 billion pounds to the banking system to increase domestic credit supply and meet the "black cloud" of the European debt crisis. Then, Hollande proposed a 120 billion euros economic stimulus plan on the 14th. The plan will be discussed at the EU summit at the end of this month; once again before the Greek election, the European Central Bank said that if necessary, the European Central Bank will provide liquidity; finally, the weak US economic indicators show that the economic recovery gradually loses momentum. It is very likely that the Fed will launch the QE3 or extend the twist operation. Data show that the US industrial output fell by 0.1% in May, and the industrial operating rate also declined in May, from 79.2% in April to 79.0%. More worryingly, the U.S. consumer sentiment index at the University of Michigan fell to 74.1 in June, the lowest since November last year.

As the U.S. economy recovers and the European debt crisis eases, the adjustment of the U.S. dollar is also unfolding, which has boosted the commodity market. Weekly reports released by the US Commodity Trade Commission (CFTC) show that as of June 12, the short position of the euro against the US dollar totaled 30.5 billion U.S. dollars, which was 9% lower than the previous week.