Strategic Analysis of the Situation of China's Solar Photovoltaic Power Industry

In 2010, European solar photovoltaic equipment market demand accounted for 80% of global demand. Since the second quarter of 2011, the demand for photovoltaic products in Europe has declined. The main reason is that many countries in Europe are currently considering subsidizing the financing of solar photovoltaic power generation projects. The industry is worried about the future direction of the on-grid tariff policy. In June, the German government withdrew its proposal for a one-time subsidy reduction plan originally scheduled for March 2012. For solar power users such as households, the German government also provides online purchase prices above the market price, which has stabilized market confidence to some extent. In 2050, solar photovoltaic power will have the capacity to supply one-third of the world's electricity supply. With the increasing subsidy policy in Europe, nuclear power has accelerated its exit from the clean energy market and may have more preferential policies to encourage photovoltaic power generation. In 2011, global demand for solar photovoltaic equipment is expected to increase by 30% to 50%, and demand growth is mainly from Europe. The situation of China's solar photovoltaic power generation industry began in 2010. The Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the National Energy Administration jointly issued a document to significantly adjust the relevant policies of the “Golden Sun Demonstration Project and Solar Photovoltaic Building Application Demonstration Project”. Equipment keying, project adjustment, subsidy standards, project integration and other key links. In 2010, a new 272MW project was added. In addition, it announced the establishment of 13 photovoltaic power generation centralized application demonstration parks throughout the country, as a basis for promoting the application of China's photovoltaic industry. And publicly stated that the domestic application scale should not be less than 1000MW per year after 2012. In August 2010, the National Energy Administration held a 238MW grid-connected photovoltaic power generation project concession bidding, and the final bid price was between 0.7288 yuan / kWh to 0.9907 yuan / kWh, far below industry expectations. The Chinese government's series of PV incentive policies have promoted the rapid growth of China's PV market. In 2009, China's annual PV installed capacity reached 160MW, exceeding the cumulative total installed by the end of 2008. In 2010, the actual installed capacity exceeded 500MW. At the beginning of August 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on Improving the On-grid Price of Solar PV Power Generation". For the first time, China's photovoltaic power generation benchmarking tariffs were stipulated: construction approved before July this year, before the end of the year The photovoltaic project that has been put into operation and not yet priced, the on-grid price is 1.15 yuan / kWh (including tax), and the solar photovoltaic power generation project approved by the Raven in July and later and approved before July but not yet completed by the end of the year, Except Tibet still implements the on-grid tariff of 1.15 yuan per kWh, the on-grid tariffs of other provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) are executed at 1 yuan per kWh. China's photovoltaic power generation finally has a "uniform Internet price." The latest notice issued by the National Development and Reform Commission on the improvement of the on-grid tariff policy for solar photovoltaic power generation shows that in the future, the on-grid tariff of photovoltaic power generation will be adjusted by the National Development and Reform Commission according to factors such as changes in investment costs and technological progress. The introduction of photovoltaic on-grid tariffs has become a “cardiotonic agent” for the entire photovoltaic industry. The total installed capacity exceeds expectations and is also a high probability event. The whole industry will usher in major development opportunities. Development of solar photovoltaic industry The development of solar photovoltaic industry should not be partial or regional. It should be based on previous plans and plans, based on a global perspective, starting from the national energy development strategy, in the development, supply and utilization of energy. In consideration of various aspects, we will formulate long-term plans suitable for the development of the photovoltaic industry, establish future development goals of the photovoltaic industry, propose core technologies to solve the development of the photovoltaic industry, equipment and other ideas, breakthrough directions, development paths, and design photovoltaic power generation and operation. Methods and policy guidelines for managing key issues such as industry standards, grid-connected prices, and system maintenance. Second, we should cultivate a complete industrial chain system. The development experience of developed countries such as Spain, Germany, and the United States shows that the initial stage of the development of the photovoltaic industry is basically from a specific link in the industry, and enters the vertical integration stage relatively quickly to form a complete and vertically distributed industrial chain. To this end, we should nurture and build a relatively complete, coordinated and healthy PV industry chain system, and guide upstream and downstream enterprises to rationally expand production capacity and rationally allocate resources, thereby enhancing international competitiveness. At the same time, it is necessary to build a technological innovation system and enhance the ability of independent innovation. Based on the emerging enterprises, scientific research institutions and institutions of higher learning, and based on the actual situation of industrial development, foster and support independent intellectual property rights, independent knowledge brands and continuous innovation capabilities. Enterprises, research institutes, and the core technologies and equipment for polysilicon preparation that currently restrict industrial development, form an industrial technology innovation system that is also the orientation of the main market and the combination of production, education and research. Thirdly, according to the development trend of the global photovoltaic industry and China's actual national conditions, scientifically formulate the development route of China's photovoltaic industry technology, including the development direction of the photovoltaic industry technology, development goals, development paths and corresponding safeguard measures, etc. Progress and industrial development needs, the core, key issues of technology development, the scientific, rational thinking and development path to solve problems. In addition, we should comprehensively consider the impact of future PV market factors on the development of the photovoltaic industry, and develop a national, scientific, and clear route plan. Joint ventures, scientific research institutions, universities and colleges, including national key laboratories and national engineering technology research centers, gradually establish national-level photovoltaic industry R&D centers, testing centers, certification centers, information centers and training through the establishment of sharing mechanisms and effective management mechanisms. The center effectively realizes the integration, sharing, improvement and improvement of resources, and builds a photovoltaic industry technical service platform system on this basis; by optimizing resource allocation, establishing a photovoltaic industry development base in a specific area with good development foundation conditions, Establish a "photovoltaic industry technology innovation alliance" with a strong and innovative enterprise as the main body, jointly carry out core technology research and development and industrialization promotion, try to formulate photovoltaic industry technical specifications, industrial technology standards, regulate the photovoltaic industry market and promote Reasonable and orderly competition among enterprises. Under this premise, the global energy crisis and climate warming caused by the release of gas emissions are a huge challenge for countries in the world to achieve sustainable development. The development of photovoltaic industry and the efficient and clean utilization of renewable energy have become new countries in the world. One of the common goals of energy development. Therefore, China should make full use of international scientific research resources, strengthen technical exchanges and cooperation with state-level scientific research institutions in the photovoltaic industry, actively participate in international renewable energy development plans, and jointly establish a number of China's photovoltaic technology application demonstration projects and cooperation bases. Introduce and gradually cultivate high-level talents for R&D and industrialization of the photovoltaic industry, and continue to draw on international advanced achievements, encourage and promote domestic enterprises to go abroad, gradually expand and explore international markets, and actively participate in the formulation of international photovoltaic industry technical standards, and then Enhance the international discourse power of China's photovoltaic industry, and promote and accelerate the development of China's photovoltaic industry technology. Nowadays, it is not enough for China to promote the development of the solar energy industry by demonstration projects alone. It is not enough to get some subsidies from the finances, because this is not a long-term mechanism. The "On-grid Electricity Price Law" is the long-term and effective solution to the problem of on-grid tariffs that the industry is looking forward to. It is mandatory by law to stipulate that the grid heating company will preferentially purchase photovoltaic power supply at a high price, and then the financial subsidies will be allocated to the national power grid. Germany has gradually become a major producer and application of photovoltaic equipment under the promotion of the electricity price online method. Previously, China mainly subsidized directly to PV project developers, and the results were not optimistic, and it was easy to trigger disputes with existing traditional energy industries. The PV project subsidy application needs to be approved by the provincial, municipal, regional and other governments for a total of more than 10 units of materials. The process has gone a long way, and now many applications are designed to take national funds, and it is easy to have fraud and power rent-seeking. phenomenon. Thousands of calls have come out, and nowadays, the PV benchmark price of electricity, which is regarded as the key to the PV market, has finally been introduced. On August 1, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Improving the On-grid Electricity Price Policy for Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation". According to the regulations, the construction was approved before July 1, 2011 and completed on December 31, 2011. The on-grid price is uniformly approved for each kWh 1.15 yuan (including tax); solar photovoltaic power generation projects approved on July 1 and after, and solar photovoltaic power generation projects approved before July 1, 2011 but not yet completed and put into operation as of December 31, 2011, except Tibet still implements the on-grid tariff of 1.15 yuan per kWh (including tax), while the on-grid tariffs of other provinces are executed at 1 yuan per kWh (including tax). The regulations also pointed out that the solar photovoltaic power generation project of the owner is determined by the concession bidding, and the on-grid price is executed at the bid price, and the bid price must not be higher than the solar photovoltaic power grid benchmark price. It is worth mentioning that in the past, PV prices generally used the method of concession bidding, approval of electricity prices or one-on-one discussion. Up to now, China has conducted a total of two rounds of bidding for photovoltaic power concession projects, and the price of the winning bids is 1.09/kWh and 0.7288 yuan-0.99 yuan/kWh respectively. However, this PV benchmark on-grid price is lower than the PV price standard determined in some places. According to the Southern Reporter, Jiangsu plans to pay 1.4 yuan per kWh, Qinghai Province is 1.15 yuan per kWh, Shandong Province has a slightly higher standard. The electricity price planned for production in 2010 is 1.7 yuan per kWh. The electricity price put into operation in 2011 is per kWh. 1.4 yuan, put into production in 2012 is 1.2 yuan per kWh. In 2009, the benchmark price of photovoltaic power generation is 1.50 yuan per kilowatt-hour, and will decline at a rate of 8% in the future. China's photovoltaic power generation is expected to achieve "fair price online" in the next 5 to 10 years. By 2015, the on-grid price of photovoltaic power generation is expected to reach 1.00 yuan per kilowatt-hour, which will realize the “flat price” on the distribution side; in 2020, the price of photovoltaic power generation is expected to reach 0.60 yuan per kilowatt-hour, achieving “flat price” in power generation. "The regular on-grid tariff will also be this level." With the gradual expansion of China's PV market, the domestic market will occupy an increasingly important position in the PV market in China during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period. Second, domestic PV companies will enter a new period of capacity expansion, especially Some leading enterprises will increase investment in the production of silicon materials in the most upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain in order to create a vertical industrial chain. Third, the concentration of the photovoltaic industry will increase. At present, the industry concentration of the domestic photovoltaic industry is relatively low, and with the formation of the technology and capital of the photovoltaic industry in the future, the domestic photovoltaic industry will enter a round of integration period, and the industry concentration will increase significantly. In fact, China's support for photovoltaic power generation is also increasing. In 2009, the Ministry of Finance approved the subsidy standard for solar photovoltaic building application demonstration as 20 yuan / watt, accounting for nearly 50% of the current system cost. After the subsidy, the cost of power generation will also be reduced to 1 yuan / kWh, which will greatly enhance the competitiveness of photovoltaic power generation. However, the National Development and Reform Commission recently pointed out that in the process of large-scale grid connection of wind power and solar power, some regions are not active enough to connect new energy to grid-connected power generation. As of the end of 2009, one third of China's wind turbines were idle. Regarding these issues, industry insiders pointed out that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, a series of measures such as implementing a new energy quota system, implementing a full-guaranteed acquisition system for new energy power generation, and deepening the reform of the power system will be resolved. As the current PV conditions are basically complete, it is possible to formally implement the "Photovoltaic On-grid Electricity Price Law" in the second half of the year. The elements of the photovoltaic industry are already in place, and the time is ripe. Following the implementation of the national policy in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the era of the photovoltaic industry is coming soon.

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