The aniline market has a strong and fast circulation

Since August, the aniline market has held up high despite the fluctuation of raw material prices. The domestic mainstream transaction price is 11,500 to 11,700 yuan per ton, and the transaction volume is also moderately magnified. This is one of the more stable and good products in the industry chain. In late September, with the turmoil in the international and domestic market, the strong trend of aniline is expected to continue. However, with the recent announcement of expansion and reconstruction of aniline plants by many domestic manufacturers, the expansion of energy consumption is expected to re-emerge, and the expectation of substantial subsequent growth in production capacity will once again test the mid- and long-term market. The speed of the market's short-term trading has accelerated, and the pressure of excess production capacity has once again required increasing the downstream expansion speed and grooming excess production capacity.

Insufficient supply, high prices, strong

The overhaul period of the enterprises is reflected in a concentrated manner, resulting in a decrease in the overall operating rate in the country and a shortage of overall supply of goods. Since August, domestic aniline enterprises have entered a relatively centralized maintenance period. The inspection and repair period for each company varies from one week to 20 days. 80% of domestic companies have successively overhauled and stopped, causing the supply of goods to shrink in the market. Out of stock phenomenon. According to incomplete statistics, the supply of goods in the market fell by more than 15% year-on-year in the past two months. Therefore, this is also the reason that the domestic ** market fluctuates from August, and one of the main reasons for the continuous high stability of the aniline market was created this year. The precedents that have not been adjusted with the turbulent market have stabilized the long-term high operating pattern. In addition, Wanhua's 360,000-ton/year aniline plant was originally planned to fail during the trial period, which has added positive factors to the market's rise.

The overall demand has rebounded, which has stabilized the negative sentiment in the early period and promoted the sustainability of the market's high position. In particular, since mid-August, domestic MDI has always been operating well and the demand is stable. In addition, the utilization rates of downstream companies such as additives and reactive dyes have also rebounded significantly, and have maintained good demand. As a result, the price of low-cost products has stabilized in the early stage. The negative impact of the market. Although the downstream companies had once changed the enthusiasm of large-scale purchases when raw materials were downgraded, the total demand has not changed. In addition, the significant reductions in output and phase maintenance of aniline companies have jointly promoted the strong high prices for the past two months.

Increased production and market circulation

At present, the company's centralized maintenance period has passed and construction has gradually resumed. It is understood that with the normal recovery of the previous aniline companies after the overhaul, the output has rebounded significantly, and the situation of the former source will be alleviated. Due to the large amount of parking in the north and the long period of time, the source of supply was tight. This is the main reason why the price in the north is continuously higher than that in the south. In the future, the source in the north will have a continuous increase. It is expected that the output in the fourth quarter will be a High-yield period does not rule out the market's readjustment.

In addition, raw materials have returned to rise, costs have increased, and short-term market circulation has accelerated the release of risks. From the market transactions show that the product from the factory to the customer's circulation speed is significantly faster. From the supply perspective, aniline companies have increased their shipment speed to minimize market risk, and are also formulating measures to accelerate capital turnover in response to raw material price increases, and to absorb raw materials at the lowest level. From the perspective of downstream companies, It is to adopt a fast-forward and fast-out strategy to release risks in the end market and not to retain them. Therefore, the enterprises in the industrial chain have increased their awareness of market risks with the increase in the production of aniline, which has accelerated the circulation speed of the aniline market.

The expansion tide tests the medium and long-term market

It is understood that the domestic aniline manufacturers have recently reproduced production and new tides. For example, Jilin Cornell’s second phase of 180,000 tons is expected to be put into production in 2011, and plans to build another 360,000 tons of equipment, Jinling Group will build 200,000 tons, Haida Group will build 60,000 tons, and Zhangqiu’s production will expand by 30,000 tons. T and Anhui He County to build 30,000 tons of equipment, while Wanhua completed the 360,000 tons of equipment to be opened, it is expected that by 2011 the new capacity will reach 920,000 tons, an annual increase of more than 60%. According to the mid-to-long term plan, the new production capacity in 2012 may increase to 1.3 million tons. By then, the domestic production capacity will exceed 2.7 million tons, ranking the world's largest producer. However, if the production capacity grows too fast, if there is no simultaneous downstream support, excess capacity will once again test the stability of the medium and long-term markets.

According to the current development plans of various aniline companies, downstream supporting products are mainly reflected in MDI, additives, dyes, etc., and in the planning of aniline products, the simultaneous formation of a synchronous planning support. However, according to the information feedback from aniline companies, the construction of downstream supporting devices is still lagging behind, and it is impossible to follow up synchronously. Therefore, the pace of downstream development needs to be accelerated to avoid the side effects caused by disorderly competition in the market.

In addition, according to domestic aniline export companies, the state has stricter control over aniline exports, complicated procedures, and the enthusiasm for exports. It also hinders the flow of aniline into the international market to a certain extent. There is an international demand but no export. Intentional phenomenon. Therefore, simplifying procedures and increasing exports are also one of the effective ways to reduce pressure on the domestic market and reduce the risk of excess production capacity in the future.