Zhejiang Nanhua Electronic Technology Co., Ltd , https://www.nhloadcells.com
The growth rate of import and export is "unnormal"
In May, both import and export growth rebounded in line with market expectations, but far exceeded expectations. Exports for the month were US$181.14 billion, an increase of 15.3%; imports were US$162.44 billion, an increase of 12.7%. The growth rate of imports and exports increased by 10 percentage points from April. In May, the import and export scale of Guangdong, a traditional foreign trade province, also reached a new monthly high. Faced with the sudden increase, said deputy director of the Guangdong Provincial Trade and Economic Cooperation Bureau of Foreign Trade Zheng Jianrong: "May trade data is indeed people by surprise, we are awaiting more detailed data out, and can further analyze the reasons Sustainability." "Feeling is a short-term factor, which may be related to the summer consumption in the United States." Zheng Jianrong said that at this time, Ma Hua, the deputy director in charge of foreign trade , is already on the way to corporate research... after the bleak April, this people Whether the “unexpected growth†that is bright in front of us is sustainable, what kind of situation will be presented in the whole year of import and export will draw a question mark in the minds of most people. Unexpected unexpected growth is more tangled, and it is not clear what is the growth rate of exports. "Everyone is very surprised." CITIC Bank international financial market expert Liu Weiming told reporters that the export growth rate in May has reached the upper limit of the market expected growth rate, after the market forecast average of 7.1%. Wenzhou Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation told the Director of Bureau of Foreign Trade Yi Lu Huamao at: "that is not clear why the May data will suddenly rebound." "The situation in the first four months are similar, the chain increased slowly light enterprises in Wenzhou Most of the products are not easy to rise and fall," he said. In the first four months of this year, Wenzhou's export growth rate was 1.2%, and it rose to 3.1% in May. "Although this growth rate has not rebounded sharply compared with the national level, it is also somewhat embarrassing." Lu Huamao said. In the face of doubts, the experts tried to give an explanation at the first time. Liu Weiming said: "I think it should be seasonal factors. On the one hand, the pre-compressed orders are concentrated; on the other hand, the Labor Day holiday has two days. In April, this also allowed the data in May to be dimmed ." A person from the Ministry of Commerce agreed with Liu Weiming's explanation and made a specific analysis. He said that the rebound in exports is mainly due to two reasons: First, seasonal factors, the first half of the year, the fifth, sixth, seventh and second half of September and October are the new order delivery period, order completion and delivery to drive exports Growth; on the other hand, it is two more days. "Don't look down on these two days. The normal working day of a month is only 22 days, and 2 days is one tenth of them." He further decomposed the data. In May 2012, China's total import and export value was 343.58 billion. The dollar increased by 14.1%. "If the total value is removed by one tenth, it is about more than 300 billion US dollars. Let's look at last May, China's total import and export value in May 2011 was 301.27 billion US dollars." The above-mentioned Ministry of Commerce said: "Remove these two days. In fact, there is no growth in May.†Some experts pointed out another major abnormal factor, that is, some industries, such as the photovoltaic industry, are immune to the impact of the US import tariff increase, speeding up the delivery of orders, and causing concentrated export of products. The total volume of exports increased. However, some people think that the import and export data in May is a new high and the data is somewhat distorted. Fan Wei, chief analyst of Hongyuan Securities' fixed income headquarters, said that the first is that the external economy's demand has not improved fundamentally; secondly, the exchange rate changes do not support – the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is not much (within 2%), while other major exporting countries are against the US dollar. The exchange rate is a large depreciation (about 10% and above), and its relative export advantage is more obvious, so exchange rate changes do not support export innovation. There is also a suspicion of distortion in the growth rate of imports. Imports in May increased by 12.3%, higher than the expected 5.5%. The main point is that the decline in the prices of primary products in the international context has driven the recovery of imports. However, Fan Wei believes that in the past two months, commodity prices have fallen by an average of about 20%, and they do not support the record high import value. The European crisis and the lack of physical activity "May is a relatively large number of accidental data, not enough to judge the future foreign trade situation is fully stabilized, especially in Europe, the number is difficult to sustain." The Ministry of Commerce said. Wenzhou enterprises have more European markets. In 2011, the volume of products exported to Europe by Wenzhou accounted for 40% of the total export volume. Lu Huamao said: "In the first four months of this year, other markets are growing slightly, and only Europe has a relatively large decline." Mr. Fuji (a pseudonym) is the chairman of a shoe-making enterprise in Wenzhou. Before the financial crisis in 2008, 95% of the products were sold. To the European market. "Fortunately, I have made some adjustments in the past two years, and strive to expand ASEAN and emerging markets. This year the European market is very poor, customers are very cautious, and they are short orders." Mr. Fuji said, "This is still second, mainly Europe. The risk of market trade is increasing. "The economic downturn, the purchasing power of foreign customers is declining, and at the same time, the ability of customers to pay, especially in Europe, has significantly decreased. At present, European financial institutions generally tighten credit, local importers are difficult to obtain bank credit, and the flow of funds is affected, which in turn affects the trade business. It is understood that many merchants do not pay in time, or after many urgings, they can receive payment. "We are all doing familiar customers, and we are not willing to develop new customers in Europe at this time. The risk is too great," he said. Chinese Ministry of Commerce, a group of data Foreign Trade and Deputy Director Zhang Daylight Saving recently given also clearly show: "European debt crisis on China's foreign trade development impact." Data show that in 2012 January-April decline in Chinese exports to the EU 2.0%, 8.9 percentage points lower than China's overall export growth rate. China’s exports to the EU accounted for nearly 20% of the total exports. Although the growth rate of exports to Europe in May increased, it was still -2.76%. Luhua Mao said: "At this stage China for all the problems facing the external trade are not necessarily related to the European debt crisis, lack of confidence of entrepreneurs is also a big problem on the real economy of the environment." In order to overcome the adverse effects of the European debt crisis on exports The country has given a market diversification strategy. While consolidating the traditional markets in Europe and the United States, it has vigorously explored emerging markets and actively cultivated surrounding markets. "The current situation shows that the market demand in the US and Japan has begun to stabilize, but there is a single unwilling to do it, and what to do." Lu Huamao said that problems such as rising labor costs, rising raw material prices, and financing difficulties for SMEs have always existed. He said: "There are 3,000 shoe-making enterprises in Wenzhou, and nearly one-third of them are currently shut down, and there are about 800." "In a recent survey, companies made 'maintenance' and 'reduce' the year-round import and export. 'The majority of the judgment." Lu Huamao said. It is difficult to reach 10% of the data in May. The data of May is probably a "fireworks" and it is difficult to sustain. "The goal of a 10% increase in import and export volume for the whole year is probably difficult to achieve," said the Ministry of Commerce. According to customs statistics, the total value of China's imports and exports in January-May was US$1,510.89 billion, an increase of 7.7% over the same period last year. "This means that the growth rate in the next few months will be more than 10% in order to reach the target." In the month of the month, China's total import and export value was 343.58 billion US dollars, an increase of 14.1%. "Compared with the total value of imports and exports in each month of last year, I have a rough calculation. In the next few months, the import and export scale of each month will exceed the target of more than 360 billion US dollars in May to complete the annual growth rate of 10%. He said, "I personally think this is a task that is unlikely to be completed." Most of the respondents agree that China's foreign trade is still facing high pressure. Huo Jianguo, deputy dean of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the export pressures of key exporting provinces and cities in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai are still very large, and the export growth rate is also lower than the national average. The import and export volume of Jiangsu from January to May Still a small negative growth. Even in the “Red Mayâ€, the seven provinces of East China that had set up a “ foreign trade military order†more than a month ago, although they all showed a trend of rebounding and rebounding, only Guangdong Province achieved a growth rate of 10%. It is also difficult to draw conclusions about the improvement of external demand in the case of feedback from key markets. Zhang Yansheng, secretary general of the Academic Committee of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that even with the exception of Europe, the two major markets of the United States and Japan are still "three shortcomings": lack of demand, lack of confidence, and lack of means. Zhou Shizhen, a researcher at the China-US Relations Research Center of Tsinghua University, also said that the unemployment rate in the United States reached 8.2% in May, a slight increase from April. The unemployment rate in the EU rose to 11% in April, and neither of the two markets saw a substantial improvement. He said that the situation of the domestic real economy does not support the judgment of good foreign trade . The officially released Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in China fell to 50.4 in May, approaching the critical point of 50. In comparison, the PMI for April was 53.3. "It shows that foreign trade is still not optimistic."