The introduction of tariffs on domestic potash fertilizer is difficult

Despite the recent domestic chemical fertilizer market movements are frequent, first of all, the 2012 tariff policy that we are very much looking forward to the introduction, there are rumors that the domestic potash giant Luo and salt lakes to adjust the price, as well as the prospects for the next potash fertilizer contract negotiations, but the response to the domestic potash fertilizer market However, it is still a quiet place. There are few ports, domestic and border trade sales, and the waiting and watching atmosphere fills the entire market.

Tariff has little effect on potash fertilizer

In 2012, the introduction of the new tariff policy, potassium tariffs did not accidentally still implement the annual high tariffs, ternary compound fertilizer also maintained and 2011 restrictions, basically the new tariff policy has little effect on the potash market. However, one of them has caught the attention of the industry, that is, the export of nitrogen and phosphorus binary fertilizer is blocked, while the phosphorus and potassium dual-factor fertilizer maintains a tax rate of 7% throughout the year.

“This is somewhat surprising because the country’s export control of ternary compound fertilizers has been strictly controlled. The reason is to control the export of potash fertilizers. However, this year, when it comes to controlling the binary fertilizer, it has no restrictions on phosphorus and potassium. "Qi Qibin, general manager of Guizhou Xiyang Fertilizer Industry, said that although the low tax rate of phosphorus-potassium dibasic fertilizer caused some whims of industry insiders, overall, the impact of tariff policy on potash fertilizer market will not be too great. Because from the perspective of this year's situation, the export of binary fertilizers is mainly based on the export of nitrogen and phosphorus binary fertilizers, because the effect of nitrogen and phosphorus on crop growth is more pronounced, and potassium is more reflected in improving crop quality if it is replaced with phosphorous. Potassium exports need to see the degree of acceptance in the international market, and a large number of exports of potassium-containing fertilizers will certainly cause the country's attention.

And Le Jian, deputy general manager of Shanghai Agricultural Assets, also believes that the domestic potash fertilizer must still be imported to meet the demand, if the production of two-element fertilizer exports, there is no advantage from the price, not worth the candle.

Liu Zhilin, deputy general manager of Dalian Ruiyang Trading Co., Ltd., said that the impact of tariff policies on the potash market is more affected by the impact on confidence. After the introduction of tariffs, everyone feels that the export of ternary compound fertilizer is hopeless, but itself The compound fertilizer market is also not very good, which may affect the purchasing enthusiasm of late potash fertilizer.

Leading price adjustment shows "base price"

Relative to the tariff effect, the recent introduction of salt lakes and potassium may have more impact on the potash market.

"As far as I know, the latest quotation of salt lake potash has been introduced, it may be slightly higher than 3,000 yuan / ton." Le Jian told reporters. Previously there was rumors in the industry that in the bid for Yunnan Potash Potash, the price for Lop Nur potash was 3,330 yuan/ton, which was significantly lower than the previous market price, and the latest quotation for salt lake potash was also very low. Reminiscent of some time ago, Yuntianhua took the lead in the industry to drastically reduce the price of diammonium phosphate to stimulate sales. The long-term market downturn in the potash market has caused some leading players in the industry to hold back, but before the price reduction from Yuntianhua started The effect of stimulating transactions was very good, so people in the industry believe that the price cuts of salt lakes and Luosuo are effective in mimicking the possibility of cloudlessness. Le Jian said even more: "The move is undoubtedly the bottom price of potash. Under normal circumstances, it is difficult to have a price below this price."

Le Jian said that from the current point of view, Salt Lake's new offer is much lower than the original, on the one hand, hoping to promote through price cuts, on the other hand does not rule out showing the lowest price, and then gradually pull up the price.

However, regardless of the motivation of the price adjustment, the fact is that in the case of the under-exposure of the downstream compound fertilizer companies, the price adjustment of the leading potash fertilizer companies has aggravated the wait-and-see attitude of the potash fertilizer market, and the procurement of downstream compound fertilizer plants is more cautious and the start of construction has not improved.

Potash fertilizer market is mainly based on small fluctuations

The reason why this happens is Jia Qibin's analysis that after diammonium price reduction, the northeast region's acceptance of diammonium increased, which led to relatively passive compound fertilizer companies and difficulties in operation. This is because they are not very optimistic about the compound fertilizer market despite the decline in potash prices. , Fertilizer manufacturers do not want to easily buy raw materials. Moreover, according to statistics, about 70% of BB fertilizer manufacturers this year to avoid risk, have also expressed or will give up a large amount of reserve materials.

For the market, Jia Qibin believes that in this market context, it is very difficult for potash fertilizer prices to rebound strongly and may be dominated by small fluctuations. Le Jian also said that compared with last year, the potash industry's favorable factors are less, but he believes that the price reduction is also relatively small, because on the one hand, potash is actually already in the trough, on the other hand, the contract negotiations have not yet As a result, there are still some variables in the outlook.