The Politburo meeting released eight major signals: keeping the economy running in a reasonable range

Abstract The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 5 to analyze and study the economic work in 2015. Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, presided over the meeting. The meeting pointed out that 2015 is the final year for the full completion of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" and is a crucial year for comprehensively deepening reforms.
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 5 to analyze and study the economic work in 2015. Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, presided over the meeting.

The meeting pointed out that 2015 is the year of the completion of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" and is the key year for comprehensively deepening reforms. It is also the year of comprehensively promoting the rule of law. It is of great significance to do a good job in economic work. We must fully implement the spirit of the Party's 18th and 18th Central Committees and the Fourth Plenary Session, adhere to the general tone of the work of striving for stability, adhere to the principle of improving the quality and efficiency of economic development, actively adapt to the new normal of economic development, and maintain economic operations. In a reasonable range, we will shift the transfer mode structure to a more important position, pay close attention to reform and tackling the key points, highlight innovation drive, strengthen risk prevention and control, strengthen people's livelihood security, and promote sustained and healthy economic development and social harmony and stability. According to Xinhua News Agency

â–  Interpretation

Politburo meeting released 8 major signals

1

Actively adapt to the new normal of economic development

[Points of the meeting]: China has entered a new normal of economic development, with good economic resilience, sufficient potential and large space for maneuvering, which provides favorable conditions for the sustainable and healthy development of the economy next year and in the future. At the same time, we must also see that some trend changes under the new normal of economic development have brought many difficulties and challenges to economic and social development.

[Interpretation]: The new normal is a major theme of this conference. Gao Peiyong, dean of the Institute of Finance and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said: "The new normal means that China's current economic development has changed, and the decision-making level is also adjusting its thinking on China's economic development. The macroeconomic goals will be diversified."

The meeting proposed that the transfer mode adjustment structure should be placed in a more important position, paying close attention to reforms, highlighting innovation drive, strengthening risk prevention and control, and strengthening people's livelihood security.

"The four focus points are focused and clear, reflecting the determination and confidence of the central government to actively adapt to the new normal of economic development," said Zhang Zhanbin, director of the economics department of the National School of Administration.

2

Maintain steady growth and balance the structure

[Points of the meeting]: We must maintain stable growth and balance the structure, adhere to the overall thinking of stable macroeconomic policies, microeconomic policies, and social policies to maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, and continue to implement active fiscal policies and A sound monetary policy.

[Interpretation]: China has entered a new normal of economic development, and its development conditions and environment have undergone major changes. “Achieving economic transformation is a key choice for China's economy.” Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that under the new economic normal, it is necessary to put the transfer mode and adjustment structure to a more important position. Only the micro-foundation and industrial base are improving, and economic stability is achieved. It can also be fundamentally improved.

He also pointed out that next year China's economy will show a trend of weakening and stable, and exports, consumption and investment are expected to achieve steady growth. Maintaining macroeconomic stability will support a smooth transition to the new normal.

3

Emerging industries and service industries "double support"

[Meeting Points]: To promote the simultaneous development of new industrialization, informationization, urbanization, and agricultural modernization, and gradually strengthen the supporting role of strategic emerging industries and service industries, and strive to promote traditional industries to move toward the middle and high-end, and promote mass entrepreneurship and mass innovation. Actively find new growth points.

[Interpretation]: The Chinese economy is no longer able to continue to maintain healthy growth by relying on large-scale investment in manufacturing and real estate industries and external demand. "This is a shift in the growth momentum of China's economy from high-speed to medium-high-speed transition, and it is also an important strategic deployment." Wang Jun, deputy director of the Consulting and Research Department of China International Economic Exchange Center said.

Wang Jun pointed out that the next step is to further deepen reforms through relevant policies and institutional arrangements, increase the power of simple administration, encourage social capital and private capital to participate in investment, and strategically emerge from financial, fiscal, taxation, science and technology, and education. Industry and service industry development creates a good environment.

4

Accelerate the transformation of agricultural development

[Points of the meeting]: We must stabilize the output of grain and major agricultural products, and accelerate the transformation of agricultural development methods, from the extensive pursuit of output growth and the extensive management of resources and consumption, to the importance of quantity and quality, focus on improving competitiveness, and focusing on sustainable intensification. Development change.

[Interpretation]: Bi Meijia, chief economist of the Ministry of Agriculture, said that China's grain production has increased year after year, but the various resource elements of grain production have been stretched tightly, and the pressure on ecological environment is increasing.

Bi Meijia said: "In the future, we should highlight the green production increase model and put the green concept into the whole process of the production increase model, and strive to improve the land output rate, input utilization rate and labor productivity."

It is understood that the agricultural sector is taking a series of measures to improve the sustainable development of agriculture, including improving acidification, salinization and other barrier soils, fertilizing soil fertility, through soil testing and formula fertilization, water and fertilizer integration, deep tillage and deep pine, to maintain cultivated land. Fertility, promote the effective use of water resources.

5

Economic development advances from east to west

[Meeting Points]: To optimize the spatial pattern of economic development, continue to implement the overall regional development strategy, promote the “One Belt and One Road”, the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the construction of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, actively and steadily promote urbanization, and persistently promote energy-saving emission reduction and ecology. Environmental protection.

[Interpretation]: Hu Xuwei, a researcher at the Institute of Geographical Sciences and Resources of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, believes that this deployment is intended to promote the economic development of China from east to west, which is conducive to narrowing regional gaps and poverty gaps, and can form several regional strategic interactions. A new economic support belt and a new platform for open cooperation with global influence.

"The above-mentioned deployment has both a focus and a holistic view." He said that the concentration of high-quality production factors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is of great significance to the overall development of the economy; the industrial base of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is good, and the developed regions and underdeveloped regions are co-ordinated, which is conducive to The factors of production spread from east to west and from the coast to the interior; promoting the “Belt and Road” is a powerful move to expand the opening up of the country, and the vast central and western regions will benefit a lot.

6

Pay special attention to employment and poverty alleviation

[Points of the meeting]: We must strengthen safeguards to improve people's livelihood, pay more attention to ensuring basic livelihood, pay more attention to the lives of low-income people, pay more attention to the stability of the overall situation of the society, and pay special attention to doing a good job in employment and poverty alleviation.

[Interpretation]: Under the new normal, what is the trend of people's livelihood policy next year?

"Employment is the foundation of people's livelihood. Poverty alleviation is the prerequisite for doing a good job in people's livelihood. The central government regards these two tasks as the focus of people's livelihood work next year. It not only grasps the foundation but also grasps the key points. It is the concrete manifestation of the bottom line of social policies. Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said.

He pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the people's livelihood policy has achieved obvious results, the employment situation has been steadily improving, and the income growth of urban and rural residents has been stable. Judging from the current situation, there will be further actions in employment and poverty alleviation next year.

7

Economic system reform will be strongly promoted

[Points of the meeting]: We must unswervingly push forward the reform of the economic system, launch reform measures that have both annual characteristics and long-term institutional arrangements, improve the quality of economic system reform programs, and do a good job in economic system reform measures.

[Interpretation]: Wang Jun, deputy director of the Consulting and Research Department of the China International Economic Exchange Center, believes that the current difficulties in economic development are ultimately institutional and institutional obstacles, and ultimately through reforms to break through.

Since the beginning of this year, reforms in key areas such as administrative examination and approval, finance, finance and taxation, investment and financing, and foreign trade and economic cooperation have been continuously promoted. They have not only exerted strength in steady growth, but also effectively promoted economic transformation and structural adjustment, laying the foundation for China's long-term development.

Experts pointed out that this meeting reflects the determination of the central government to promote reforms, and also makes specific arrangements for how to push forward reforms in the critical period. Those difficult and highly resistant reforms are expected to be vigorously promoted next year.

8

Realize the basic balance of international payments

[Points of the meeting]: To release the potential of domestic demand, promote the balance of import and export, the introduction of foreign investment and the balance of foreign investment, and gradually achieve a basic balance of international payments.

[Interpretation]: At present, the global economy is recovering moderately. The official withdrawal of the US quantitative easing policy will lead to capital outflows to emerging economies, and China is also facing capital outflow pressure. On the other hand, in recent years, China's foreign investment has maintained a relatively fast growth rate. The Ministry of Commerce estimates that the amount of foreign investment in China will soon exceed the amount of foreign investment, and the growth rate of foreign investment in the next five years will remain above 10%.

Zhang Yansheng, secretary general of the Academic Committee of the National Development and Reform Commission, predicts that China's international balance of payments may have an inflection point in the future. From the pattern of “double surplus” of current and capital projects to basic balance and even deficit. "The current conditions for further improvement of the balance of payments are already in place, and the gradual realization of the basic balance of international payments is crucial to maintaining macroeconomic stability." Zhang Yansheng said.

â–  Forecast

The parties predict that the growth rate will be 7%-7.3% next year.

According to previous years, the Central Political Bureau will hold a meeting to study the economy in the coming year before the Central Economic Work Conference. Some media said that the 2014 Central Economic Work Conference will be held on December 9.

In the past 10 years of the Central Economic Work Conference, some years of meetings will clarify the economic growth targets for the coming year and make them public. Therefore, one of the most interesting focuses before the annual Central Economic Work Conference is the economic growth target. However, the final figures are generally announced during the "two sessions" in March of the following year.

After more than 8% of high-speed economic growth for many years, China's economic growth has declined slightly in the past two years. During the "two sessions" in 2014, Premier Li Keqiang set the target for economic growth in 2014 at around 7.5%. The parties predict that the economic growth in 2015 may be even lower, probably between 7.0% and 7.3%.

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences "Analysis and Forecast of China's Economic Situation - Fall 2014 Report" predicts that China's GDP will grow by about 7.0% in 2015.

According to the 2015 Economic and Financial Outlook Report released by the Bank of China on December 2, China’s economy continued to slow down in 2014, but overall the economy is still operating in a reasonable range. It is expected that the annual GDP will increase by about 7.4%, which is significantly lower than the reform and opening up. Since 9.9% annual growth rate. The "Report" expects GDP growth of about 7.2% in 2015, CPI growth of about 2.4%, and the economic operation of the year still shows a pattern of "low growth + low inflation."

Recently, the report of "The New Normal of Finding Macroeconomic Policies" written by Liang Hong, chief economist of CICC, predicted that GDP will increase by 7.3% year-on-year in 2015. Next year, the central bank [microblogging] may be downgraded four times and cut interest rates. 2 times.

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