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US shale gas revolution transplanted to China
After the United States relied on shale gas for energy independence, China is about to set off a shale gas revolution. Shale gas refers to natural gas extracted from shale formations and is an important unconventional natural gas resource distributed in shale source rock formations with large thickness and wide distribution in the basin. Compared with conventional natural gas, shale gas development has the advantages of long mining life and long production cycle. Most gas-producing shale has a wide distribution range and large thickness. The United States was the first country to use shale gas. As early as the mid-nineteenth century, the United States had a record of using shale gas. Since 2000, shale gas production has begun to increase significantly. In 2010 and 2011, US shale gas production reached 137.8 billion cubic meters and 180 billion cubic meters, respectively, both exceeding the natural gas production in China. Under this circumstance, natural gas prices in the United States have fallen sharply, and natural gas exports have increased substantially. In the future, it is even possible to make the United States achieve energy independence. The shale gas revolution in the United States has spread to more countries, such as Britain, France, Germany, and Poland. Today, China has also whipped up the horn of developing shale gas, and it has also driven natural gas consumption into the golden period. Opportunities and Challenges Coexist The US Energy Information Administration's statistics show that the current global shale gas recoverable resources are 189 trillion cubic meters. Among them, North America has 55 trillion cubic meters; Asia has 51 trillion cubic meters; Africa has 30 trillion cubic meters; Europe has 18 trillion cubic meters. For China, the development of shale gas is an opportunity and a challenge. On the one hand, China has a large amount of shale gas resources and has great development potential. On the other hand, China's address conditions are more complicated than those of the United States, and development is more difficult. There are also challenges in environmental protection. China's shale gas resources are mainly marine, with three oceanic regions, including North China, Southern Paleozoic, and Tarim Basin. Not only the traditional oil giants are actively engaged in the exploration and development of shale gas, but some foreign and private enterprises are also enthusiastic about the development of shale gas. Moreover, some experts said that the characteristics of shale gas reserves in China are more suitable for decentralized development of small and medium-sized enterprises, including technical service providers, equipment providers, oil-supply enterprises and chemical enterprises with leading drilling technology are likely to enter the page. Development of rock gas. However, China's shale gas development is just in its infancy, and mass production has not yet been formed. The main tasks for the next three years will be the stage of resource exploration and evaluation. By 2015, China will basically complete the national shale gas resource potential survey and evaluation, master the potential and distribution of shale gas resources, preferably 30 to 50 shale gas prospects and 50 to 80 favorable target areas, and initially achieve scale. Production, shale gas production reached 6.5 billion cubic meters / year. In this regard, Zhang Yuqing, director of the Oil and Gas Department of the National Energy Administration, said that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the main task of China's shale gas development is to find out the reserves and master the exploration and development technology for the "13th Five-Year Plan" and "14th Five-Year Plan." The leap during the period laid the foundation. However, compared with the United States, the implementation of shale gas resources in China is very low, and the work that has been implemented is relatively limited. Moreover, in addition to the late time, the development of shale gas in China still has many unfavorable factors. First of all, the geographical conditions are relatively poor. The area where China's shale gas is located is mountainous and hilly, and the United States is a large flat area, which brings great difficulties to the construction of the project, and the drilling experience of Chinese enterprises is very little accumulated. In particular, key technologies such as horizontal well drilling and large-scale fracturing need to be continuously improved. Secondly, the single well production of shale gas in China is very low, the surface topography is complex, the construction of pipeline network is difficult, and the economy is poor, which is not conducive to the development and exploitation of shale gas, and China's infrastructure is poor, unlike the United States. The pipe network is as developed, China's official website construction has just started, and logistics traffic pressure is even greater, which poses a problem for the development of shale gas. In addition, shale gas development is also facing environmental protection problems. The most important technology for shale gas mining is hydraulic fracturing technology, which requires a lot of water resources, which is very challenging for China. China's water resources are not rich. If shale gas is vigorously developed, it may have conflicts with other residents and industrial water. Therefore, how to make more effective use of water resources and how to reduce or avoid the use of water resources to continue to destroy is an important challenge for China. All in all, "The biggest difficulty in the development of shale gas in China is the cost issue," said Gao Ruimin, dean of the Yanchang Petroleum Research Institute. At present, the cost of natural gas in China is about 1.35 yuan/m3, and the sale of natural gas shale gas in the United States. The price is about RMB 8/m3, and the shale gas is just in its infancy. I estimate that our shale gas cost is much higher than natural gas, at least 1.5 to 2 yuan. How to reduce costs is a key problem in shale gas development. Unprecedented policy support In the process of shale gas development, government policy support will play a very important role. The United States introduced a support policy for shale gas development in the 1980s. At that time, 30% of the profits of shale gas companies in the United States came from government support. Today, the Chinese government has also given unprecedented policy support to the development of shale gas. First, at the end of 2011, the State Council approved the shale gas as an independent mineral, and shale gas exploration and development is no longer subject to the oil and gas franchise. In addition, shale gas exploration and development (joint venture, cooperation) is included in the list of encouraged foreign investment industries. During the two sessions this year, shale gas development was also included in the government work report, pointing out that China has "accelerated shale gas exploration and development." The open bidding for shale gas prospecting rights is also the lowest and most open threshold for the mining rights in China. In mid-September, the second round of shale gas exploration rights bidding was launched. A total of 20 shale gas resource blocks were launched, with a total area of ​​over 20002 square kilometers, distributed in Chongqing, Guizhou, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, In Anhui and Henan provinces (municipalities), the exploration rights are valid for 3 years. The tender notice also pointed out that all registered enterprises with registered capital in the territory of the People's Republic of China with a registered capital of more than RMB 300 million have the qualifications for oil and gas or gas mineral exploration, or have established cooperative relations with qualified enterprises and institutions. The Sino-foreign joint ventures that are controlled by the company can participate in the bidding. This has greatly broadened the scope of companies involved in bidding. Relevant departments in China are still developing management documents to systematically and long-termly supervise the shale gas tendering block and provide supervision for the long-term development and utilization of shale gas resources. In addition, Li Cheng, deputy director of the Energy Policy Department of the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, said that due to the large scale of investment, long output period and slow returns, the relevant departments will introduce some specific fiscal and tax support policies, including The following five aspects: First, increase the investment in the investigation and evaluation of shale gas resources; second, through the national science and technology major projects, increase the research support for shale gas exploration and development related technology; third, compare the subsidy policy of coalbed methane Formulate shale gas subsidy policy; Fourth, research and development to obtain shale gas prospecting rights, mining rights applicants can apply for shale gas exploration and mining rights fees in accordance with relevant regulations; fifth, shale gas exploration and development projects are imported downwards It is not possible to produce domestic equipment, including equipment imported with equipment that is exempt from customs duties. In order to promote the commercialization of the shale gas industry, the relevant documents also clearly pointed out that the shale gas ex-factory price will be subject to market pricing; implementation of shale gas industry incentive policies, priority land use approval. Multi-party information shows that the Chinese government's determination to support shale gas development has been very firm. Relevant personnel have repeatedly stressed that they will actively promote the diversification of investment entities in the field of shale gas exploration and development, formulate industry access standards, and encourage eligible capital investment in shale gas development. Relevant departments should increase policy research and coordination. We will promptly introduce various support policies such as financial subsidies, tax incentives, risk exploration, mineral rights management, technology research and development, and equipment autonomy. Natural gas consumption enters the golden period While China has set off this shale gas revolution, industry experts expect that China's natural gas consumption will enter a golden period. Some experts said that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China's energy structure will be adjusted, and the proportion of natural gas in primary energy consumption will rise from the current 4% to 8% to 12%. Li Xinhua, deputy general manager of China National Petroleum Corporation, said that in the next 20 or 30 years, fossil energy will be difficult to change in the world's primary consumption. Natural gas, as a clean energy source in fossil energy, will also be further developed. The world has entered the golden age of natural gas, and the North American shale gas revolution is changing the world's energy landscape. Relevant data pointed out that during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, China's natural gas consumption has maintained an average annual double-digit growth rate, with a growth rate of 18.2% in 2010. According to institutional analysis, China's natural gas production is expected to reach 185 billion cubic meters by 2015, while the demand is as high as 260 billion cubic meters, and the supply and demand gap is 75 billion cubic meters. According to Qian Xingkun, deputy dean of the China Petroleum and Economics Research Institute, China's natural gas development has now entered a period of rapid growth. It is expected that China's natural gas development will grow rapidly in the next 20 years. It is estimated that China's natural gas consumption will reach 350 billion by 2015, and will reach 500 billion yuan by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 8%, far higher than the world average. Level. However, China's natural gas dependence is also increasing. In 2011, China's natural gas dependence reached 24.3%. "By 2015, our natural gas consumption will reach 200 billion cubic meters, and the gap will be 100 billion cubic meters. How to make up for this gap is the significance of shale gas development." Gao Ruimin said that the current natural gas is basically proven. The reserves are getting more and more difficult, and the annual increase is about 10%. The gap can only be compensated by shale gas. In the future, if China's shale gas production can reach 100 billion cubic meters, China's energy pattern will change. This is also the reason why China's development of natural gas, while vigorously developing shale gas and focusing on breaking shale gas.