Development and Reform Commission: Raise oil prices to curb excessive oil consumption

The National Development and Reform Commission revealed on the evening of the 21st that it is expected that the foreign dependence on crude oil will approach 55% this year, and the situation facing oil security will become more severe.

Price increase to curb excessive consumption growth According to the data of the Energy Bureau at the beginning of the year, China produced 189 million tons of crude oil in 2009, and net imports of crude oil reached 199 million tons. The crude oil import dependency exceeded the warning line of 50%, reaching 53%.

The National Development and Reform Commission stated that domestic crude oil consumption continued to grow rapidly in 2010. From January to October, the apparent domestic refined oil consumption amounted to approximately 190 million tons, an increase of 10.6% year-on-year. Imports of crude oil reached 198 million tons, an increase of 20% year-on-year. It is expected that the foreign dependence on oil this year will be close to 55%, and the situation facing oil security will be even more severe. The price increase will use price leverage to curb excessive oil consumption.

Li Li, a crude oil analyst at CBI, believes that the increasing dependence on crude oil imports will be the trend for at least the next five years because domestic crude oil consumption is increasing and production is limited. In addition, because China's refined oil pricing mechanism is mainly based on international crude oil price adjustments, so with the continuous expansion of domestic crude oil dependence, the correlation between domestic refined oil prices and international oil prices will also be higher, and changes in international oil prices will be more direct. Affecting the changes in domestic refined oil prices.

The prevailing view in the industry is that with the decline in the output of major oil fields in China, the domestic crude oil production peaks at about 200 million tons.

Expansion of Refining Capacity and Promotion of Reliance Increased Since the beginning of this year, China’s crude oil imports have increased significantly. According to customs data, China imported 21,845 tons of crude oil in the first 11 months, up 19.8% year-on-year. Li Li believes that, in addition to the growth in consumer demand, in recent years, China’s continuous refinery production capacity and oil companies’ increased stocks of crude oil reserves have stimulated a surge in crude oil imports.

With regard to increasing dependence on crude oil imports, Li Li believes that this will not bring about enthusiasm for China's energy supply. On the one hand, China can obtain resources from the international crude oil market. On the other hand, China has begun strategic deployment, such as the speeding up of state-owned oil companies. Acquisition of overseas resources, the establishment of a national strategic oil reserve, the establishment of oil and gas transportation pipelines such as China-Russia, China-Burma, etc.

At the end of November, crude oil inventories fell compared to the previous month. According to the Xinhua 08 system issued by Xinhua News Agency on the 22nd, China’s crude oil inventories (excluding reserves) fell by 3.2% from the previous month at the end of November. Refined oil stocks increased 5.0% qoq.

Xinhua News Agency analysts believe that under the background of the expansion of the "diesel shortage", crude oil imports have rapidly picked up. In November, imports were 20.91 million tons, an increase of 4.52 million tons, a net import of 20.33 million tons, and crude oil production dropped by 240,000 tons to 17.52 million. In tons, crude oil processing volume exceeded 36 million tons, and crude oil inventories fell within the statistical range.

The tight supply led to the continuous rise of diesel prices in November. With the increase in production and the increase in imports, prices at the end of the month fell back, but they were still significantly higher than at the end of October. The net increase in net imports of diesel fuel has changed the situation of the monthly net exports of 200,000 tons or more that have continued to maintain this year.