Of course, both of these noises are also associated with the vibration profile of the transmission assembly in the powertrain. How to structurally reduce the sensitivity of the transmission to system vibration is also a subject for transmission developers. Zonglan continues to be respected as an innovative eyelet machine designer, brass eyelet manufacturer and exporter.
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Figure 1 Global CO2 emission limit forecast 
Figure 2 IHS sales data and market share analysis and forecast over the years 
Figure 3 TURC customer model matching transmission market share statistics 
Table 3 Some 6MT products on the Chinese market 
Development trend of manual transmission for automobiles
China's auto industry has broken through 20 million production and sales marks for two consecutive years, and the transmission industry has also risen. Although the traditional manual transmission (MT) is still in the hegemony of the share, its leading edge has been strongly impacted. Not only that, MT has encountered unprecedented challenges in terms of performance, cost and technological advancement. In the future, the MT market can dominate the throne, and the direction of MT technology development will point to it. This is the subject of exploration and research in the entire transmission industry.
Industrial policy analysis
1. Fuel consumption limit guidance
In order to encourage the development of energy-saving vehicles, the state has put forward more stringent requirements for the fuel consumption limit of passenger vehicles in the third stage, as shown in Table 1.
Table 1 Stage 3 passenger car fuel consumption limit
Interpretation: The fuel consumption limit is related to the weight of the vehicle, which may lead to the development of heavy-duty vehicles.
Analysis: For the transmission, the torque matching can not only look at the engine torque, but also fully consider the impact of the vehicle weight on the transmission capacity and durability of the transmission. From the perspective of reliability, the application of the transmission "large horse-drawn carriage" will increase significantly. In addition, the increase in the displacement limit will indirectly promote the technological innovation of the transmission on the agenda.
2. Vehicle and vessel tax and consumption tax guidance
In order to encourage the development of small-displacement energy-saving vehicles, the state has introduced corresponding policies from the vehicle and vessel tax and consumption tax (see Table 2).
Table 2 Passenger car and vessel tax and consumption tax
Interpretation: Both taxes are related to displacement, and this policy will increase the consumption ratio of small-displacement models.
Analysis: The increase in the proportion of small-displacement vehicles will drive the increase in the proportion of light-duty transmissions, while China's current light-duty transmissions are dominated by MT, so this policy will stimulate the total amount of MT.
3. Emission limitation analysis
Figure 1 is a projection of global CO2 emission limits. According to the Copenhagen Climate Change Agreement, China is committed to reducing CO2 emissions. Compared with 2005, emissions will be reduced by 40% to 45% by 2020. Since CO2 emissions are directly proportional to fuel consumption, this requires companies to invest in the development of energy-efficient and environmentally-friendly transmissions.
Consumer market analysis
Due to low MT fuel consumption, low production and maintenance costs, high technology maturity, and complete industrialization, it has long dominated the market. With the advancement of society, the number of vehicles has increased significantly, but the construction of highways has lagged significantly, and road conditions have become congested. Especially in first- and second-tier cities, the driver's operational intensity has increased significantly. These have led to changes in consumer preferences, and more and more non-professional drivers prefer automatic transmissions. In recent years, the proportion of automatic transmissions in China's auto market has been rapidly improved, and it has greatly surpassed the trend of MT.
With the awareness of environmental protection, energy-saving, high-efficiency transmissions are recognized by more and more OEMs and consumers. This also brings market opportunities for high-end MT and advanced automatic transmissions. In addition, follow-up car buyers will gradually have more personal driving experience, this consumer group will pay more attention to the overall performance of the transmission instead of manual automatic. The changes in consumer concerns have led to the development of various types of transmission models in a subdivided and diversified direction.
Statistical data analysis and prediction
According to IHS data analysis and forecast, China's manual transmission output will be surpassed by automatic transmissions around 2015 (see Figure 2).
Also based on HIS data analysis, in the segment of the manual transmission, the six-speed manual transmission (6MT) will develop rapidly in the short term, and globally, it will reach 30% market share from 2016 to 2017. Among them, the United States, Germany, and Japan have more than 50% market share in 2011, 2006, and 2011 respectively. Conservatively, China's share of 6MT will exceed 10% by 2015.
According to our company's statistical analysis of transmissions and matching models (see Figure 3), MT market share in 2013 was 52.37%, of which 5MT accounted for 47.4%, 6MT accounted for 4.97%, and other automatic transmission subdivision types showed a hundred schools of contention. . The statistics for MT market share are basically the same as the trends for HIS statistics.
In summary, the development trend of the manual transmission market is: the decline in share has become inevitable, but due to its cost, fuel consumption advantages and the growth of high-end market segments, the absolute value of annual output will continue to increase slightly, and the absolute number is still huge. In the short term, the manual transmission will still maintain a 50% share. It is expected that by 2015, the share of the manual transmission will be overtaken by the automatic transmission. Due to fuel consumption and selling points, etc., the proportion of 6MT will have a good market performance. In addition, due to the guidance of industrial policies and changes in consumer groups, manual transmissions will rely on the development and reference of advanced technologies to develop in the direction of high performance and high quality.
Research on the direction of technology development
With the increase in per capita income, the increase in consumer purchasing power and the popularity of imported cars, OEMs and consumers are demanding higher performance requirements for vehicles and even transmissions. These will inevitably lead to changes in the technical development of manual transmissions, towards the development of better performance and more advanced technology.
1. Multiple gear trend
Due to regulatory restrictions on emissions and fuel consumption, in order to fully utilize the power of the engine and achieve the effect of fuel economy, the speed ratio of the transmission is developing toward the intensification. At the same time, in order to balance low-speed power (starting, acceleration, climbing) and high-speed economy (high-speed economic speed cruise), the transmission speed ratio needs to be developed in a large span direction, that is, the low speed and high speed speed ratio difference amplification, which There is a contradiction. In order to solve this contradiction, it is natural to think of the multi-displacement of the transmission, especially the development of cross-border models such as SUV and MPV, and it is an urgent need for multi-stop. As a wind vane in the automotive industry, the German Volkswagen launched a matching 6MT model in 1999. In recent years, including China in the world, many OEMs have invested in resources to develop 6MT. The Chinese market is expected to achieve universalization of 6MT by 2015 (see Table 3). What's more, in order to achieve strong power and excellent economy at the same time, in 2012, Porsche 911 launched the 7MT sports car, and in 2013, the BMW 6 Series also launched the 7MT model, which confirmed the segmentation of the manual transmission market. There is still much to be done.
2. High transmission efficiency
Based on the consideration of fuel consumption and emission indicators, both 5MT and 6MT research and development have put forward high transmission efficiency requirements. This is also one of the technological trends in manual transmissions. The overall efficiency requirement is higher than 95%, and the average efficiency of the optimized transmission can reach over 96.5%. In order to achieve high efficiency, we will focus on the following technologies.
1) Lifting the gear stiffness reduces the elastic deformation loss of the gear pair and the tooth surface sliding loss.
2) Replace the tapered bearing structure with the ball bearing and the column bearing structure to reduce the friction loss caused by the pre-tightening force and the friction loss caused by the sliding of the roller end face.
3) The oil seal adopts the advanced spiral lip to cancel the lip to hold the spring and reduce the holding force, thus reducing the friction loss between the lip and the shaft.
4) Reduce the amount of lubricating oil through the design of the oil guiding structure, and reduce the oil loss of the moving parts of the transmission by reducing the viscosity of the oil formula.
3. Comfortable shifting performance
The requirements for shifting performance of manual transmissions are moving in the direction of combining overall subjective fuzzy evaluation with precise quantitative control. Based on the parameters such as shifting force, shifting stroke and shifting impulse, the control index adds a number of indicators that reflect subjective feelings, such as suction feeling, two-stage feeling, cross-shifting and shift lever sway. Research and promotion areas.
4. Static NVH performance
With the improvement of the quality and performance of the whole vehicle, the sound insulation and sound absorption measures of the vehicle itself are getting better and better, the requirements for reducing the noise inside and outside the vehicle and reducing the vibration are getting higher and higher, and the noise vibration of the transmission is also higher. Claim. From the feedback of many current OEMs, the most common and most important solution to the transmission is the howling (whistle) and the knocking sound (slap sound).
The whistle is mainly caused by the transmission error of the transmission gear meshing (see Figure 4), mainly through the micro-shaping of the tooth surface of the gear (see Figure 5) and the lifting machining accuracy.
The knocking noise is mainly transmitted to the transmission non-loading gear due to engine vibration, and the tooth gap is generated due to the backlash between the gear pairs (see Fig. 6). This is mainly solved by the attenuation of the engine vibration and the adjustment of the gear pair backlash (see Figure 7).
5. Manual transmission and electronic control system integration
In order to improve the comfort and automation of the vehicle, the automotive industry and the electronics industry are getting closer and closer, and manual transmissions are no exception. In order to realize the intelligent start and stop function of the vehicle, in addition to the vehicle speed sensor, the manual transmission also needs to increase the neutral switch or the empty reverse switch to recognize the gear.
In order to reduce fuel consumption and reduce emissions, the vehicle idle speed setting should be as low as possible. However, in order to ensure that the idle speed starts smoothly and does not stall, it is necessary to increase the engine speed according to the actual working conditions. This requires an increase in the engine speed sensor and the gear switch on the transmission. To achieve the vehicle control of the engine. In the future, according to the needs of vehicle control, vibration sensors, temperature sensors, etc. may be integrated on the manual transmission. Coupled with the development of semi-automatic shifting (switching) technology, the integration of manual transmission and electronic control system will become higher and higher, and the boundary with automatic transmission will become more and more blurred.
Conclusion
The decline of the manual transmission in China and the world has become inevitable, but it does not mean that the manual transmission is the sunset industry, and it will still have its own development space for a long time. The manual transmission industry, which can only be said to be backward in technology and backward in production process, is a sunset industry and will be replaced by advanced manual transmissions and automatic transmissions.