Domestic refined oil prices may usher in an upward adjustment window on Wednesday

Affected by factors such as the increase in demand for crude oil by the International Energy Agency, international crude oil prices rose again overnight on the 13th. Light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.34 to close at $83.01 a barrel. The analysis agency expects that the domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open next Wednesday, and the price adjustment will be 200-300 yuan per ton.

Affected by this, the wholesale price of domestic refined oil (especially diesel) continued to rise. The wholesale price of diesel in Anhui, Shanxi, Henan and other places has equaled or even exceeded the retail price. Yesterday, the wholesale price of diesel in Chengdu market reached 7,450 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan per ton at the end of September.

International oil prices continue to rise
The International Energy Agency raised its international energy demand forecast for the next two years on the 13th. In the latest report, the organization pointed out that due to higher-than-expected economic growth in the world's major economies, global average daily crude oil demand is expected to reach 86.9 million barrels and 88.2 million barrels this year and next, up 300,000 barrels from previous estimates.

In addition, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also announced on the 12th that the global demand for crude oil will rise to 85.59 million barrels and 86.64 million barrels per day this year and next, which is 80,000 barrels higher than the previous forecast.

Boosted by the above news, the price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 1.34 US dollars to 83.01 US dollars per barrel. The price of North Sea Brent crude oil in London market rose 1.14 US dollars to close at barrel. US$84.64.

Domestic oil prices next week or price adjustment
Since the international oil price broke through 80 US dollars during the National Day and has been maintained at a high level, the market's expectations for the adjustment of domestic refined oil retail prices have become stronger.

Domestic energy information agency Xiwang Energy analyst Liao Kaizhen believes that from various signs, the weakness of the US dollar will continue, and the currency depreciation will support the high international oil price operation, and domestic refined oil prices are likely to usher in adjustment. Xiwang Energy estimates that the current weighted change rate of crude oil in the three places is 2.43%, which has not yet reached the 4% price adjustment standard.

However, Liao Kaixuan expects that the price adjustment of "22 days + 4%" stipulated by the domestic refined oil price adjustment mechanism will be fully satisfied around the 20th of this month. The refined oil price adjustment window will be officially opened, and according to the calculation, the price adjustment may be Between 200-300 yuan per ton.

Credit Suisse, a well-known investment bank, also published a research report saying that China may adjust its refined oil prices in the third week of October, given the recent rise in international oil prices.

The wholesale price of refined oil continues to rise
Affected by the overall strength of international oil prices, the wholesale price of domestic gasoline and diesel has also continued to rise, especially the increase in diesel. Since the end of September, the wholesale price of diesel has soared. As of now, the wholesale price of No. 0 diesel has risen by 500-600 yuan per ton. The No. 0 diesel quotation of some of the main units in Anhui, Shanxi and Henan has exceeded the maximum retail price limit for the first time.

According to the monitoring data of the National Federation of Industry and Commerce Petroleum Industry Chamber of Commerce, the main diesel fuel resources in Chengdu tightened yesterday. The mainstream of Sinopec and Sinopec diesel oil were reported at 7,450 yuan/ton, up by 300 yuan from the end of September, and it has been limited in shipments and resources are tight. PetroChina 93# gasoline reported 8355 yuan / ton, basically the same as the previous day's price.

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