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Boom conduction is the theme of the machinery industry in 2010. In 2009, benefiting from investment and consumption growth, the booming of direct investment products and direct consumer goods such as construction machinery and automobiles remained at a relatively high level. In 2010, the prosperity will be transmitted upstream along the industrial chain, which will make the machine tool industry's prosperity rise, which will make the machinery industry in 2010 show the market conduction.
2010 will be a year in which the machine tool industry is heading for the peak season. Benefiting from the high prosperity of downstream products such as automobiles and construction machinery, the prosperity of the machine tool industry will continue to rise in 2010, and the peak will appear in the second quarter of 2011, so that 2010 will become the peak year for the machine tool industry. As we continue to climb, we give the industry a “buy†rating.
In 2010, the peak of the construction machinery industry has passed. The construction machinery industry is closely related to fixed asset investment. Looking ahead, 2009 will become the peak of China's fixed asset investment in recent years, which will cause the peak of the construction machinery industry to appear in 2009. In 2010, the peak of the construction machinery industry has passed. The investment opportunities of the industry may come from the “accident†factor. One of the accidents is that the sales volume exceeds expectations, and the second is that the gross profit margin exceeds expectations.
The shipbuilding industry will remain at the bottom of the year in 2010. We believe that the improvement of the shipping industry's prosperity depends on the improvement of the shipping industry's profit margin and the expansion of shipping volume, both of which are indispensable. In the short term, the shipbuilding industry is hard to come by, and this period may be longer than expected. From a time perspective, we expect that the shipbuilding industry will have a lower probability of entering the boom phase by mid-2011.
Asset allocation recommendations. As the industry boom continues to rise, we give the machine tool industry a full-year over-profit proposal; for the construction machinery industry, we believe that the over-matching in February-October, other months standard; for the shipbuilding industry, we believe that the low-grade in January-July, 8- Standard in December.
Investment risk: The risk of fluctuations in the prices of major raw materials and the risk of another recession in the global economy.
Machinery industry: boom transmission is the theme of the industry in 2010
[Summary of Machinery Industry Research Report]