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In 2014, although the three major oil companies of Sinopec, PetroChina and CNOOC accelerated the pace of shale gas mining. But those non-oil and gas companies have slowed down: China's 19 blocks of the second round of shale gas tenders in 2012, most of its development is still slow.
A number of industry insiders told the "First Financial Daily" reporter that compared with the "three barrels of oil" that has had decades of geological exploration experience, the "new recruits" in the domestic shale gas field were actively bidding and participating in the development. I am optimistic about the development prospects of shale gas, but there are still a series of problems to be solved at present, and the most difficult problem for the winning bidders is the technical problem.
Therefore, under the constraints of mining technology, there are major differences in the market regarding whether the “2015 China shale gas production reaches 6.5 billion cubic meters per year†can be completed.
Corporate enthusiasm
Domestic shale gas development is especially the “wind direction†of the three major oil companies. Judging from the recent measures of the three major oil companies, shale gas development has entered the accelerated phase.
On March 1 this year, Sinopec and Chongqing signed the "Strategic Cooperation Agreement on the Development and Utilization of Fuling Shale Gas". According to the agreement, the two sides will strengthen cooperation in the fields of shale gas exploration, development, utilization and construction of gas distribution systems. Strive to form a production capacity of 5 billion cubic meters per year of shale gas in Fuling by the end of 2015.
Fu Chengyu, chairman of Sinopec, believes that the successful development of Fuling shale gas marks the stage of rapid development of shale gas development in China.
On the same day, CNOOC Limited announced that the first shale gas exploration well in China, Well Hui 1 was drilled smoothly. This is called “marking the new stage of CNOOC shale gas exploration and developmentâ€.
PetroChina, as the "big brother", is not far behind in the field of shale gas development. In February, the key block of PetroChina's shale gas mining – Sichuan Weiyuan-Changning Block Pipeline Transportation Project was basically formed, and more than 100 new wells were rapidly advancing.
However, compared with the “hot†degree of shale gas developed by the three major oil companies, other participants appear to be “calmâ€. Since 2006, China Petroleum Exploration and Research Institute has started research on shale gas. So far, two shale gas block bids have been conducted nationwide.
In 2011, the Ministry of Land and Resources organized the first round of shale gas tenders in a total of four blocks. Among them, Sinopec Huadong Branch won the bid for the Nanchuan block and the Henan CBM Company won the bid for the Xiaoxiang Xiushan block. Then, in 2012, the second round of bidding was carried out. 17 of the 19 blocks were won by state-owned enterprises. Among the private enterprises, only Huaying Shanxi Energy Investment Co., Ltd. and Beijing Titan Tongyuan Natural Gas Resources Technology Co., Ltd. "Titan Tongyuan") won the second block and the third block of Fenggang shale gas in Guizhou.
According to the winning bid contract, each winning bidder shall initiate exploration and construction activities within six months of obtaining the exploration license. A person involved in the development revealed to reporters that in June last year and January this year, the Ministry of Land and Resources, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Energy Bureau and Guizhou Province organized several development progress reports, but only one or two companies explored. Work has progressed and most companies have not made any substantial progress.
Zhuo Chuang information analyst Yan Xinzhi said that most of the winning bidders are currently worried about high-risk and low-return, and the construction time of shale gas bidding is far lower than expected. Up to now, the government's bidding for the domestic shale gas industry has been enthusiastic, but the company's cautious and calm, leading to the stagnant development of the first two rounds of shale gas winning blocks.
Technology "card neck"
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has the highest recoverable reserves of shale gas technology in China, reaching approximately 36.1 trillion cubic meters. The exploration results of the Ministry of Land and Resources also show that the potential of shale gas geological resources in China's land is 134.42 trillion cubic meters, and the potential for recoverable resources is 25.08 trillion cubic meters.
In terms of quantity, China is a veritable shale gas country. However, due to factors such as technology and cost, China’s large-scale commercialization of shale gas is slow.
In 2013, China's natural gas production was 121 billion cubic meters, and unconventional gas shale gas production was about 200 million cubic meters, accounting for only 0.17% of total natural gas production.
Wang Jingbo, chairman of Titan Tongyuan, told the reporter of China Business News that the biggest problem encountered in the mining process came from technology.
Wang Jingbo introduced that unlike the mining environment in the United States, the shale gas mining in the southwestern part of China is carried out in the mountains and mountains, which makes it difficult for enterprises to understand the geological structure. How can enterprises improve the accuracy of geological understanding? Most of these problems are solved by technical means.
It is undeniable that in terms of geological conditions for shale gas mining, the mining conditions in the United States are much better than those in China. Most of the United States is in the plains, with stable distribution and shallow burial. In contrast, China's shale gas resources are mostly distributed in the mountainous areas of the southwest, and 3,000 meters are shallow, generally reaching 4,000-6,000 meters. Therefore, the US shale gas mining technology and equipment are mainly targeted at 3,000 meters and below, and cannot be directly applied to the Chinese market.
It is also widely believed in the industry that the Chinese market is so keen on shale gas development, mainly to see that the US shale gas is developing well. In the future, this industry will develop rapidly in China, but it should also fully recognize the Chinese and US pages. Different situations of rock gas development.
Technical problems have not only become a stumbling block for participants in the early stage of exploration, but also in the later stages of drilling and fracturing, especially for those companies that have no technical experience.
“Overall, most of the companies that won the bid in the second round are non-professional, with coal companies and even real estate companies. Therefore, in the development of new things in a large and complex environment, there must be a learning process.†The above-mentioned companies involved in the development said.
Technical problems undoubtedly increase the cost of mining. “Because shale gas mining and fracturing technology has strict requirements on equipment and drilling technology, and China’s technology is not mature, while spending huge sums of money to introduce foreign technology, but also due to the immature technology, the unknown factors appear, costing huge costs. Yan Xinzhi said that the same drilling of a single well, the cost of the United States only needs about 30 million, China will be nearly 100 million yuan.
200 million to 6.5 billion problems
In March 2012, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Land and Resources, and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the Notice on Printing and Developing Shale Gas Development Plan (2011~2015), proposing that by 2015, the national shale will be basically completed. The investigation and evaluation of gas resource potential has initially achieved the goal of large-scale production and shale gas production of 6.5 billion cubic meters per year.
Since the technical problems have not been solved yet, there are two different views in the industry as to whether this goal can be realized. Looking optimistically, the three major oil companies, including PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC, have accelerated, and it is expected to achieve the goal of “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†for shale gas.
At present, the best shale gas development blocks for Sinopec and PetroChina are Chongqing Fuling Block and Sichuan Weiyuan-Changning Block. Up to now, Sinopec Jianghan Oilfield Company has built 32 drilling platforms and 130 drilling wells in Jiaoshi Town, Fuling District. The daily gas production has increased from 1.5 million cubic meters to 2.2 million cubic meters. According to the plan of Sinopec, the Fuling block will add 100 shale gas wells this year and build 42 drilling platforms.
In Wang Jingbo's view, according to the current development speed, China has no problem to complete the 6.5 billion mining target. "I don't think Sinopec has any problems with the 3.5 billion yuan. PetroChina has invested a lot. It is better to say that the resources and engineering technology controlled by Sinopec are better, so the two can solve most of them, plus The gas production of CNOOC, Yanchang Petroleum, and China United Coalbed Methane should not be a problem.
There are optimists and pessimists. From a pessimistic point of view, the total output of shale gas in China in 2013 was only maintained at around 200 million cubic meters, and the actual supply to the market may be lower than this amount.
“The target is difficult to achieve. The Fuling shale gas demonstration zone will only produce 14.47 million square meters within seven days after it is put into production. It is difficult to reach 700 million square meters in 2015. Other shale gas blocks face various kinds of The problem, the output may be lower than this number, so it is difficult to complete the task of 6.5 billion squares during the 'Twelfth Five-Year Plan' period." Yan Xinzhi said.
The shale gas winning bidder is fascinated with the technology card neck old problem
Non-oil companies that have entered the “shale gas movement†are calming down and re-examining the risks and benefits. Shale gas has reshaped the US energy landscape, but the huge differences in the geological environment between China and the United States and the significant differences in the way companies operate make it difficult to simply transplant China's key technologies.