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[Impact on the stock market] The central bank rarely fined Monday to support the new chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Liu Shiyu
That's right, it's down.
Although the external caliber may not be large before, but moderately loose or even excessively loose has become a helpless choice.
In the absence of obvious bearish conditions, the stock market crashed on Monday to push into the previous low of 2638. The systemic risk of the stock market is in full swing.
So, we saw that the few that we saw on Monday were released after the close:
The central bank decided to cut the RMB deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points.
The central bank decided that since March 1, 2016, the RMB deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was generally lowered by 0.5 percentage points in order to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the financial system, guide the steady and moderate growth of money and credit, and create appropriate supply-side structural reforms. Monetary and financial environment.
We don't discuss whether the late stage is the organization's knowledge or the country's admission. We don't discuss how much Hua Fa has been in the past few days. It seems that 2638 will be a staged bottom. Just, don’t fall below now, can you not fall below in the future?
The soldier has no answer.
[Impact on the renminbi] What is the intention of the new year’s first grading?
Accidental downsizing stirs up financial markets
This is the first time the central bank has lowered its quota in 2016. For this RRR cut, Luo Yi, chief analyst of Huatai Securities, said that according to Huatai Securities, the RRR cut will release about 700 billion liquidity, which will positively stabilize the stock market.
In an interview with the reporter of the International Finance News, Yan Junyang, deputy director of the Center for Modern Finance Research at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, pointed out: "From a technical point of view, there should be a wave of rebound in A shares after the current plunge. After coming out, it is bound to form a support for tomorrow's stock market."
After the Chinese central bank announced the RRR cut, the global financial market immediately fluctuated wildly. Singapore's Xinhua FTSE A50 index short-term recovery of 3% fell to near the flat. In Hong Kong stocks, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index futures rose 1%, and HSI futures rose 0.7%. In terms of commodities, the decline in copper prices narrowed, while spot gold held steady above $1,230/oz. Crude oil fell and the US crude oil rebounded to around $32.64 per barrel.
The market seems to be quite surprised by the central bank’s announcement of the RRR cut today. However, the political commissar of the Industrial Bank, Lu’s political commissar, believes that there is a need to reduce the standard in terms of the loss of foreign exchange. Yan Junyang also said: "From the perspective of economic fundamentals, there is still downward pressure and the stimulus of monetary policy is needed."
Mobility relief
Li Feng, a Chinese bank trader, told the International Finance News: "The central bank's RRR cut will ease the recent tight market liquidity." Today, the central bank also conducted a 7-day reverse of 230 billion yuan through the open market. Repurchase, considering that there are 80 billion yuan reverse repurchase due today, the central bank has a net investment of 150 billion. This week, there were a total of 1.16 trillion reverse repurchase due, which was a big pressure on the market.
On the eve of the Spring Festival, the market generally expects the central bank to reduce the liquidity, but considering the exchange rate factor, the central bank chooses to use liquidity through MLF and reverse repurchase. “In the past few months, the central bank has used open market operations to regulate market liquidity, but this can only solve short-term liquidity problems. With the expiration of reverse repurchase operations, the market will face financial pressure from time to time. "Li Feng said.
Li Qilin, head of the Minsheng Securities Collection Research Group, believes that the 50BP reduction will release about 50-600 billion yuan of liquidity, which can only barely offset the base currency gap, as foreign exchange holdings continue to shrink and the open market operation is due this week. There are 930 billion yuan. However, the unexpected reduction in the standard has a "loose" signal meaning.
Zhu Haibin, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase, expects monetary policy to remain accommodative in 2016. It is currently expected that there will be a 25 basis point rate cut and four 50 basis points downgrades in 2016.
The devaluation of the RMB depreciation
In the view of Yan Junyang, the central bank's RRR cut is not too surprising. "If it is not because of the pressure of the RMB depreciation in the previous period, the central bank's RRR cuts should have been around for a long time." Jun Jun said.
After the central bank announced the RRR cut, the offshore RMB against the US dollar quickly fell. As of 19:30 Beijing time, the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar fell to a minimum of 6.5592. Therefore, the market began to worry whether the central bank's RRR cut will trigger a new round of RMB depreciation.
In this regard, Mizuho said that the timing of the RRR cut is appropriate, and it is expected that it will not trigger an offshore renminbi sell-off. The RRR cut will also provide a better atmosphere for further supply-side reform.
"The recent RMB exchange rate is stable, and from a fundamental point of view, there is no basis for the devaluation of the renminbi. China’s international trade balance is still a surplus in January. Moreover, compared with other countries, China’s currency interest rate is still relatively high. Therefore, this RRR cut will not trigger a sharp depreciation of the RMB.†Jun Junyang pointed out. Today, the SAFE released data shows that in January 2016, China’s international revenue and expenditure of international goods and services trade income of 185.6 billion US dollars, expenditure of 150.6 billion US dollars, a surplus of 35 billion US dollars. Among them, the trade in goods trade was 162.6 billion US dollars, the expenditure was 106.9 billion US dollars, the surplus was 55.7 billion US dollars; the service trade income was 23.1 billion US dollars, the expenditure was 43.7 billion US dollars, and the deficit was 20.7 billion US dollars.
Deng Haiqing, chief global economist of Kyushu Securities, believes that the relative strength of the renminbi in the near future is a prerequisite for the central bank to lower the standard. Previously, the central bank repeatedly stressed that "excessive RRR cuts are not conducive to stabilizing capital flows and exchange rates." "The central bank's RRR cuts are so large that the central bank's concerns about exchange rates and capital flight are weakening." However, Deng Haiqing further pointed out that it is necessary to be wary that once the "excessive RRR cuts are not conducive to stabilizing capital flows and exchange rates," the central bank should do a good job. Plan.
[Doubt about the timing of the RRR cut] Why did the central bank choose to reduce it at this time?
On the evening of February 29, the People's Bank of China suddenly announced that it had generally lowered the RMB deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points.
Although the market has been waiting for this RRR for a long time, especially in the key time windows such as New Year's Day and Spring Festival, rumors about the RRR drop have arisen from time to time. But the central bank’s announcement of the RRR cut at this time is still unexpected. Compared with the previous RRR cuts in 2015, the first reduction in the Year of the Monkey is a general RRR reduction. It is relatively simple and does not include the content of targeted RRR reduction, that is, it is no longer linked to the “three rural†and small micro loans. The five reductions in 2015 were either “directional + general decline†or simply directional reduction.
In 2014, the central bank introduced a targeted RRR-approval mechanism to implement preferential reserve ratios for commercial banks that meet prudent operating requirements and meet the “three rural†or small and micro enterprise loans, and according to the bank’s “three rural†or small The micro-enterprise loan placement dynamically adjusts its reserve ratio, establishes a positive incentive mechanism, guides banks to improve the credit structure, and enhances support for “agriculture, rural areas and farmers†and small and micro enterprises.
On January 25 this year, some banks no longer met the requirements for targeted RRR cuts. The central bank resumed its normal deposit reserve ratio, which increased the level of deposit rate to a certain extent. At one point, market liquidity was relatively tight. Some analysts believe that this is a policy adjustment made by the central bank to the excessive growth of money and credit in January.
In this regard, the central bank also specifically blamed: the central bank in accordance with the relevant system of targeted reductions, the assessment of the implementation of targeted reductions in financial institutions in 2015, the vast majority of bank credit support for agriculture is small, meeting the criteria for targeted RRR reduction, You can continue to enjoy the preferential reserve ratio; a few banks no longer meet the directional RRR, and therefore cannot continue to enjoy the reserve ratio. The central bank specifically emphasized that the assessment results are up and down, which is conducive to the establishment of a positive incentive mechanism, which is the meaning of the assessment system, and has nothing to do with the growth rate of new loans or macro-prudential assessment.
Then, why should we implement a general RRR cut this time? The central bank said that the main purpose is to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity of the financial system, guide the steady and moderate growth of money and credit, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for supply-side structural reform.
Considering it carefully, the consideration of this RRR reduction is really reasonable:
From the perspective of macroeconomic trends, China's import and export data in February were significantly lower than expected, PPI has been at a low level for a long time, indicating that domestic deflationary pressure is relatively large, and the leading indicator, manufacturing PMI, has been below the glory line for six consecutive months, and The lowest in 40 months. All these indicate that China's economy is still facing greater downward pressure. The RRR cut is expected to release 700 billion yuan of liquidity, once again injecting blood into the real economy, which will help further stabilize economic growth.
From the perspective of liquidity itself, after the US dollar raised its interest rate for the first time in ten years, the yuan has recently depreciated, accelerating the rate of capital outflows. From the central bank's data, the foreign exchange holdings of the central bank's calibre have been falling for three months, and the scale is huge, totaling 1.6 trillion. This means that China's base currency has the same size gap. The central bank actively engaged in MLF and open market operations in January, releasing medium- and long-term and short-term liquidity. This reduction of 0.5 percentage points is actually a supplement to the base currency.
From the 2016 task, “de-leveraging†is one of the five key tasks of economic work in 2016. In the context of greater economic downturn, how to gradually digest bubbles and leverage in a controlled and controllable manner is a difficult challenge. According to international experience, countries that have historically been successfully leveraged have maintained moderate easing of monetary policy. Therefore, creating a relaxed environment for structural reforms through RRR cuts will help the task of “de-leveraging†to be successfully completed.
Then, why did you choose to announce this on the big Monday evening? From the point of view of the RRR, at the meeting of the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors who just closed in Shanghai, the ministers and presidents of major countries all believe that the global economic recovery is difficult to meet expectations, and the downside risks and vulnerabilities have risen. The meeting combined demand stimulus and structural reforms and emphasized the important role of monetary policy in supporting economic growth. China’s Finance Minister Lou Jiwei also said at the meeting that China will strive to find a balance between short-term growth and long-term reform. This RRR cut can be said to be a reflection of the consensus reached at the G20 ministerial meeting.
On the morning of February 26, on the eve of the meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the central bank, said at a press conference held at the Shanghai headquarters of the central bank that the central bank’s monetary policy is in a state of steady and slightly loose, and it needs to be dynamically adjusted in due course. . Zhou Xiaochuan personally admitted that China’s monetary policy is “slightly looseâ€, which is still very rare. Some people think that the central bank governor used the word "loose" to summarize China's monetary policy for the first time in many years. It was just that morning that I also proposed at an internal meeting that China’s monetary policy is actually “moderately loose on a sound basisâ€.
It is not a crime for the central bank to lower the bid. However, we should not pin all our hopes on the adjustment of monetary policy, which is the weight that monetary policy cannot bear.
So, the question to think about now is: What else can we have besides the RRR cut? (The author of this article: Executive Dean of Hengfeng Bank Research Institute, Visiting Researcher of Chongyang Financial Research Institute of Renmin University of China, Sina Weibo: Returning from the East.)
Attachment: List of stock market trends after previous RRR cuts (table)
2015 central bank's previous RRR cuts:
February 4: 0.5% reduction on February 4, the People's Bank of China announced that it lowered the RMB deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points. At the same time, the central bank announced that the city commercial banks and non-county rural commercial banks that have achieved the targeted reduction criteria for small and micro enterprises will reduce the RMB deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, and reduce the RMB deposit reserve ratio for China Agricultural Development Bank. Percentage points.
March 1st: 0.25 percentage points cut interest rate On February 28, the People's Bank of China cut the benchmark interest rate of RMB loans and deposits of financial institutions from March 1, 2015. The one-year lending benchmark interest rate of financial institutions was lowered by 0.25 percentage points to 5.35%; the one-year deposit benchmark interest rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage points to 2.5%, and the benchmark interest rates of other grades of deposits and loans and the personal housing provident fund deposit and loan interest rates were adjusted accordingly.
April 20: 1% reduction on April 19, the People's Bank of China decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of various deposit-type financial institutions by 1 percentage point from April 20, 2015. For rural financial institutions such as rural credit cooperatives and rural banks, the RMB deposit reserve ratio was reduced by 1 percentage point.
May 11: Symmetrical interest rate cut by 0.25 percentage points On May 10, the People's Bank of China announced that the benchmark interest rate for one-year loans of financial institutions will be lowered by 0.25 percentage points to 5.1% from May 11, 2015; the one-year deposit benchmark interest rate will be lowered. 0.25 percentage points to 2.25%. At the same time, the upper limit of the floating range of deposit interest rates of financial institutions was adjusted from 1.3 times the deposit benchmark interest rate to 1.5 times.
June 28: Rate cut by 0.25 percentage points and downgrade by 0.5 percentage points On June 27, the People's Bank of China announced a rate cut of 0.25 percentage points, while a targeted reduction of 0.5 percentage points.
August 26: 0.25 percentage points cuts by 0.25 percentage points. Starting from August 26, 2015, the benchmark interest rates for financial institutions' RMB loans and deposits will be lowered again to further reduce corporate financing costs. Among them, the one-year lending benchmark interest rate of financial institutions was lowered by 0.25 percentage points to 4.6%; the one-year deposit benchmark interest rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage points to 1.75%; the other benchmark loans and deposit benchmark interest rates, and the personal housing provident fund deposit and loan interest rates were adjusted accordingly. At the same time, the interest rate floating ceiling of time deposits of one year or longer (excluding one year) is released, and the interest rate floating ceiling of demand deposits and time deposits below one year remains unchanged.
October 24: 0.5% reduction in interest rate cuts by 0.25 percentage points The People's Bank of China decided to cut the benchmark interest rates for financial institutions' RMB loans and deposits from October 24, 2015 to further reduce social financing costs. Among them, the one-year lending benchmark interest rate of financial institutions was lowered by 0.25 percentage points to 4.35%; the one-year deposit benchmark interest rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage points to 1.5%; the benchmark interest rates of other grades of loans and deposits, and the PBOC’s interest rate adjustments to financial institutions were adjusted accordingly. The personal housing provident fund loan interest rate remains unchanged. At the same time, commercial banks and rural cooperative financial institutions will no longer set a floating ceiling for deposit interest rates, and will promptly improve the marketization formation and regulation mechanism of interest rates, strengthen the central bank's regulation, supervision and guidance on the interest rate system, and improve the efficiency of monetary policy transmission.
The impact of the annual RRR cut on A shares: 
What are the relevant effects of the central bank's RRR cut in all aspects?
Abstract The People's Bank of China has decided to reduce the RMB deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points since March 1, 2016, in order to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the financial system, and to guide the steady and moderate growth of money and credit, and to provide structural reforms on the supply side. Create a suitable...
The People's Bank of China decided that since March 1, 2016, the RMB deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was generally lowered by 0.5 percentage points in order to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the financial system, guide the steady and moderate growth of money and credit, and create a supply-side structural reform. A suitable monetary and financial environment.