3 factors into coal, soaring and pushing coal

The popularity of the coal market is of concern, but what people are more concerned with is how long can the "coal madness" last? A very intuitive phenomenon is that there may be room for future coal prices. Taking the Qinhuangdao Port 5,500 kcal thermal coal price as an example, the price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at the beginning of 2010 was about 810 yuan/ton, and it fell to 680-690 yuan/ton in April, and then rebounded to 735 yuan at present. /Ton. Compared with the beginning of the year, the current price is still 70-80 yuan per ton.

Chinese investors' wisdom and humour coexist. According to the recent stock market trend, investors conclude that after the "garlic you" and "beans you play," "coal madness" is now being staged.

Investors said that “coal madness” refers to the surge of coal prices in the market and coal stocks on the stock market since October.

Behind this wave of skyrocketing prices, there are both the roots of reality and the promotion of speculation. On the one hand, the natural rotation of seasonal demand, on the other hand, it is rumored to be drowning.

Since coal entered the month of October, coal prices on the market and coal stocks on the stock market have risen at almost the same time. As a result, people have exclaimed: “Coal is extremely crazy”.

In the stock market, coal stocks have been low since the end of September. After the opening of the market on October 8th, the trend of the coal stocks became out of control. They jumped through multiple gaps and surged upwards. Since the market opened on October 8th, coal companies headed by Guoyang Xineng have risen at the top, and in less than a month, their gains have both exceeded 50%.

On September 30th, Guoyang Xineng closed at only 15.77 yuan, and since the National Day holiday, the stock has gone strong out of 5 daily limit, and on October 20, it has hit a new high of 30.90 yuan, or 92.14. %, the most bullish stock this month. Shan Coal International has also gone out of the 4 daily limit within 5 trading days, and the stock price has reached a new high of 38.36 yuan on the 23rd. The rest included Datong Coal, Jingyuan Coal, and Panjiang Stocks. The stock prices hit a new high.

With the skyrocketing stock market, the actual market price of coal is not much. The data shows that since October, the cumulative increase in coal prices in North China has reached 10-30 yuan/ton.

The price of 4800 kcal thermal coal bed in Quzhou, Shanxi is 415 yuan/ton, and the price of Datong 5500 kcal thermal coal is 590 yuan/ton; in east China, the coal washing mix is ​​up 50-60 yuan/ton. In Jining, Shandong, the tax price of the 5000-5200 kcal coal-mixed truck panel was as high as 810 yuan/ton; the increase in coal price in the northwest region was particularly noticeable. The coal price in Inner Mongolia was increased by 30-70 yuan/ton, and the maximum increase was 120 yuan/ton. Currently, the coal mine pit at the Ito Group has a tax price of 340 yuan/ton; coal prices in the southwest and south-central regions have also risen to varying degrees, with an average increase of 40 yuan/ton.

The rise in coal prices has even led to a surge in coal shipping costs. Due to the large number of coal users who had stored coal in advance under psychological panic, coupled with the recent bad weather, the port was sealed, and there was a phenomenon of grabbing ships. According to the data, the sea freight rates from Qinhuangdao Port to Shanghai, Zhangjiagang, and Guangzhou are 73 yuan/ton, 78 yuan/ton, and 98 yuan/ton, respectively, which are 25 yuan/ton and 26 yuan/ton higher than the prices in the previous week. T, 22 yuan / ton.

The three main reasons for the surge in coal prices caused by this wave of soaring coal prices include: this year may encounter extreme cold weather, seasonal demand and coal resources integration policies and other effects.

The so-called extremely cold climate refers to a news circulating on the Internet that Europe will experience a “one-hundred-thousand-year-old” cold this winter, and China and other Asian countries will not be spared. Although no one knows the reliability of this news, even if some meteorologists have come forward, the idea of ​​“preventing problems and being prepared for disasters” remains the only choice for large coal-fired power plants. And it seems that the "Millennium-Cold" footnote is normal. The Central Meteorological Observatory issued a forecast saying that the cold air is coming and that the strongest cold air in the fall of October 22 will swept most of our country from west to east. Affected by this, the cooling rate in the northeast region, northern North China, Huanghuai, Jianghuai, and eastern Jiangnan can reach 12-16°C.

The logic of the market's pursuit of coal due to the concept of "Millennium-Cool" is that coal accounts for about 70% of China's energy consumption structure, and heating in winter in northern regions is a major cause of strong winter coal demand. This logic of derivation makes the concept of “Millennium Chill” not only quickly enter people’s field of vision, but also becomes a powerful commentary on the rise of coal prices.

If you admit that the "millennium cold" is only a special cause of the rise in coal prices this year, it is undeniable that with the arrival of seasonal demand, it is logical for coal prices to rise from the off-season. In fact, every heating period is approaching in recent years, there will always be a surge of coal prices after speculation. To many people in the industry, this is normal. Seasonal rises include both the floating rises that occur with lower temperatures, and the rises in mining prices that occur with the increase in mining costs and the increase in transportation costs due to the increase in fuel prices.

However, the normal seasonal demand coupled with the help of the “Millennium Arctic” has made the coal market sensitive. Many media reports from non-coal-producing provinces stated that many responsible persons for large coal mines have already carried cash to rush to coal-producing provinces such as Shanxi.

In addition, as a coal enterprise that has the qualification for integrating coal resources, its right to speak has also greatly improved. A sales manager of Shanxi Coal Transportation Company stated that the sales price set by the company is basically no possibility of bargaining. In previous years, some large coal users may also purchase directly from small and medium-sized coal mines. There is room for manoeuvre on the supply source. Basically not. Taking Shanxi as an example, after the integration of resources, the sales right of the coal market has been concentrated in the hands of the group companies that integrated the main bodies. After the group companies have unified pricing, the possibility of voluntary price reduction is basically zero. A potential but taken for granted logic is that when the number of suppliers is reduced, forming a tacit price alliance is by no means a difficult task. Besides, is there still a shortage of resources?

How long can the "coal madness" last for so long? The buzz in the coal market is of concern, but what people are more concerned with is how long can "coal madness" last?

A very intuitive phenomenon is that there may be room for future coal prices. Taking the Qinhuangdao Port 5,500 kcal thermal coal price as an example, the price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at the beginning of 2010 was about 810 yuan/ton, and it fell to 680-690 yuan/ton in April, and then rebounded to 735 yuan at present. /Ton. Compared with the beginning of the year, the current price is still 70-80 yuan per ton.

Market analysts believe that this is the result of changes in production capacity. Zhu Yu, chairman of the China Coal Economic Council, pointed out that when the coal price during the heating period was high at the end of 2009, the coal deposits of the power plant were approaching only three or four days. One of the important backgrounds is that the Shanxi coal companies merged and reorganized since last year. Coal production in the country’s largest coal-producing province fell to 615 million tons by the end of the year, a decrease of 41 million tons compared to 2008. The reduction in market supply naturally led to price increases.

However, the situation in 2010 has changed. As coal mines after merger and reorganization of mines began to resume production, coal production in Shanxi Province in the first half of 2010 increased by 22% compared with the same period of last year, which in turn led to a rapid increase in coal market supply. A recent announcement issued by Shanxi Pan'an Group showed that in 2009, 52 coal mines were consolidated, 1.5 billion tons of resources were integrated, and the combined production capacity was 15 million tons per year. It is expected that it will begin to enter the capacity release period in 2011.

At the same time, the electric power companies that have been feeling more than others have gradually increased the pace of coal self-sufficiency in recent years. Earlier, at the Energy Expo held in Shanxi Province, power giants such as China Power Investment, Huaneng, Huadian and Datang signed a cooperation framework agreement with Shanxi to seek investment and development in the field of coal mining. In the future, these power companies, which have increased the pace of coal self-sufficiency, will reduce the demand for the coal market and will inevitably affect the trend of coal prices.

In addition, under the national “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” energy-saving and emission-reduction limit, the downstream coal-fired, building materials, metallurgy and chemical industries have rapidly declined their coal consumption demand, which is also a potential factor in the gradual easing of supply in the coal market.

There have been reports in the media describing that “when the power plant’s storage tanks cannot accommodate more coal, it will directly lead to a sharp decline in coal prices, and a large amount of raw coal will accumulate in the mining area, causing environmental problems. This is for the coal industry. It is tantamount to 'disastrous'."