After two years of stagnation in the low price, the recent days of domestic polysilicon manufacturers have begun to get better. Since the third quarter of 2010, the international photovoltaic market has turned around and the situation has suddenly improved. With the recovery of the global economy, especially PV system integrators have rushed to place orders before the German PV subsidy policy is lowered, and global PV demand has increased significantly. The global PV research institute Solarbuzz's annual report shows that in 2010, the global solar PV market installed volume reached a record 18.2GW, an increase of 139% over 2009. As the core raw material of the photovoltaic industry, the price of polysilicon has risen sharply, from $56/kg in July 2010 to nearly $100/kg at the end of 2010. The leading company of photovoltaics, which accounts for 10% of the global PV market, is the wind vane of the performance of Wuxi Suntech Power Co., Ltd. (STP.NYSE, hereinafter referred to as Wuxi Suntech). Since the spring of 2011, the number of solar PV modules sold by Wuxi Suntech to Europe and the United States has continued to rise, and supply is in short supply. Sales in the first quarter increased by nearly 50% year-on-year. Including GCL-Poly (03800.HK), Sichuan Investment Energy (15.89, -0.04, -0.25%) (600674.SH), Tianwei Baobian (20.40, 0.04, 0.20%) (600550.SH), etc. Major domestic polysilicon manufacturers have also turned losses into profits, and released the 2010 annual report and the 2011 first quarter report. Is this a short-term recovery caused by an accident, or is the global spring polysilicon demand pattern re-adjusted, ushered in the second spring of vitality? Overcapacity A chart of the rise and fall of international polysilicon prices in a decade can reveal that this is an industry that is as stimulating as riding a roller coaster. Since 2002, the price of polysilicon has continued to rise from about $10/kg, and by 2008 it had hit a price of $500/kg. After the global financial crisis, the international PV market shrank sharply, causing upstream polysilicon manufacturers to cut production and limit production. International polysilicon prices have been in a downward channel, all the way down to the lowest point of April 2010 at 50 US dollars / kg. "When the market was good in early 2008, our polysilicon could sell more than 300 million yuan a ton, and in 2009 it fell to more than 300,000 yuan a ton." The price suddenly shrank by nine, and Huang Shunfu, chairman of Sichuan Investment Energy, When the reporters of the new "New Century (19.78, 0.28, 1.44%)" mentioned the two years of recession, they still seemed to have a lingering fear. The large-scale industry in the polysilicon industry chain has also entered the dilemma of “overcapacity†with explosive growth as the price of raw materials has risen and fallen. After the national photovoltaic industry park has blossomed everywhere, about one-fifth of China's solar cell and module manufacturers have closed down since the fourth quarter of 2008. After this crazy expansion, the polysilicon industry has been holding the hat of the "overcapacity" industry. In 2009, the State Council's No. 38 document “Suggestions on Reducing Overcapacity in Some Industries and Repeated Construction to Guide the Healthy Development of Industries†ranked polysilicon as one of the top ten industries with overcapacity. However, many insiders have objected to this and believe that capacity and actual production are two different things. Some people even call the so-called production capacity "virtual capacity." Yang Fangshao, deputy general manager of Jiangsu Zhongneng Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. publicly stated: "Although the domestic polysilicon production capacity has already exceeded the demand of downstream enterprises, the actual production is insufficient." According to the statistics of the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, as of the end of 2010, the mainstream Siemens polysilicon production capacity in China was 70,700 tons, the output was only 43,500 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was only 60%. Why is capacity utilization so low? Xie Chen, a researcher at the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, told Caixin's "New Century" reporter that many domestic enterprises could not fully operate due to cost considerations in the case of low silicon prices in the previous two years. For example, Tianwei Baobian had a capacity of 3,000 tons at that time, but the output was only about 1,000 tons. "Because the cost of full operation is very high, especially electricity." There are also technical disputes on the statistical caliber. Donita East’s emerging industry analyst Tang Xiaodong told Caixin’s “New Century†reporter that the polysilicon production line usually takes about two years from construction to production, and it takes more than one year from production to production, so it is difficult for the company to reach full load in the short term. Operating capacity. In contrast, foreign polysilicon manufacturers' production capacity statistics are not as large as their new capacity is not as much as China's. He believes that "after the low price of silicon in 2008, the production of domestic polysilicon is definitely not surplus, but insufficient." Industry threshold adjustment However, the State Council listed polysilicon as an overcapacity industry. Another layer of consideration is that, under the driving of huge profits, domestic polysilicon projects blossomed everywhere in 2008, and its high pollution and high energy consumption shortcomings were exposed. Tang Xiaodong recalled that from the high-end operation of silicon prices from 2007 to the beginning of 2008, even a small factory with a capacity of less than 1,000 tons can make money. Many small projects have swarmed across the country, and many of them are uneconomical, both in terms of environmental protection and industrial scale. In January 2011, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Plastic Industry Access Conditions" to refine the access conditions for the polysilicon industry in terms of production scale, technical equipment, resource recycling, energy consumption, and environmental protection. It is striking that the solar-grade polysilicon production line with integrated power consumption greater than 200kwh/kg will be phased out before the end of the year. Obviously, the country's next development thinking for the polysilicon industry is scale and intensification. For several heavyweight companies in the polysilicon industry, this new entry standard has revived its long-settled polysilicon expansion project. An industry insider from the downstream industry of the photovoltaic industry said that he supports the country's entry barrier for polysilicon. "Because the comprehensive utilization of domestic polysilicon manufacturers is not high, the raw materials cannot be fully recycled, resulting in the final cost of polysilicon products being higher than that of foreign manufacturers. A lot higher. Foreign products shipped to China, the price can be cheaper than domestic polysilicon." Caixin's "New Century" reporter also found in the interview that China's self-produced polysilicon cost-effectiveness can not meet the needs of domestic PV downstream manufacturers. In 2010, Chinese PV manufacturers digested more than 80,000 tons of polysilicon, including more than half of polysilicon. It is dependent on imports. Xie Chen said that polysilicon should theoretically be an industry with high integration. Why is the cost of foreign countries low? “Not only because of the advanced technology, but also because of the mass production, the unit cost is low.†As soon as the new regulations for industry access came out, polysilicon manufacturers such as GCL-Poly, LDK, China Metallurgical Group and Daquan Group proposed plans to expand production and take the opportunity to expand into scale. Huang Shunfu told Caixin "New Century" reporter that the production line of Xinguang Silicon Industry of Sichuan Investment Energy has been transformed according to the requirements of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to increase production capacity and reduce energy consumption. After the rectification requirements are met, mass production will be carried out and profit margin will further increase. Although the industry believes that China's lighting conditions, PV industry chain distribution and energy demand, it is necessary to develop the photovoltaic industry. However, due to the high cost of photovoltaic feed-in tariffs, China's photovoltaic power generation market has been relatively quiet. Although there is the Ministry of Finance's "Golden Sun" project and two rounds of photovoltaic power plant concession bidding project, bidding for the price of 1.09 yuan / kWh. However, the substantive system feed-in tariff subsidy policy has not yet been introduced. Practices in countries such as Europe have shown that the feed-in tariff subsidy policy is considered to be the most effective policy to support the photovoltaic industry so far. Tang Xiaodong said that Caixin’s “New Century†reporter analyzed the prospects of the polysilicon industry. “In the short term, avoiding a sharp decline in European countries’ markets is a necessary condition for the stable development of the polysilicon market. In the medium term, the rise of potential markets led by China and the United States is supporting the industry. The key to maintaining high-speed growth; in the long run, the complete opening of the photovoltaic industry market space is that its power generation costs have fallen to levels comparable to traditional energy sources." Many PV industry people are actively promoting the further launch of the domestic PV market. Caixin’s “New Century†reporter learned that the current national government departments tend to use the demonstration projects to find out how much the cost can be reduced, but the system When the policy is introduced is not expected.
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The international photovoltaic market peaks turn to China's polysilicon reforming
Abstract After two years of stagnation in the low price, the recent days of domestic polysilicon manufacturers have begun to get better. Since the third quarter of 2010, the international photovoltaic market has turned around and the situation has suddenly improved. With the recovery of the global economy, especially PV system integrators...