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According to customs statistics, the import and export of machine tool industry in January-September 2014 was US$21.254 billion, an increase of 14.98% from January to September 2013 (hereinafter referred to as “Year-Yearâ€). Among them, exports were 8.043 billion US dollars, up 22.68% year-on-year; imports were 13.211 billion US dollars, up 10.75% year-on-year, and the import and export deficit was 5.168 billion US dollars (according to the statistics of China Machinery Industry Federation, the same below).
1. Exports are growing rapidly, and horizontal processing centers and laser processing machine tools are growing rapidly.
The industry's exports from January to September were US$8.043 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.68%. The growth rate ranked first among all industries in the machinery industry, 14.42% higher than the growth rate of the machinery industry by 8.26%. Exports were US$6.556 billion over the same period in 2013, a net increase of US$ 1.487 billion. The situation is very good.
The export of metal processing machine tools was 2.356 billion US dollars, an increase of 18.21%.
The processing center exported 1,827 units, with a value of US$115 million, an increase of 19.43% year-on-year, with an average unit price of US$63,200 per unit. The average unit price of exports in the same period last year was only US$51,600 per unit, indicating that the technical content of export products has increased.
CNC machine tools exported 20,463 units, 701 million US dollars, an increase of 30.94% year-on-year, the average unit price of 34,300 US dollars / Taiwan, the average unit price of exports in the same period last year was 37,200 US dollars / Taiwan, indicating that due to relatively weak international market demand, price competition is very intense.
2. Imports are turning from negative to positive, and the growth rate is accelerating month by month. The vertical processing center imports are growing rapidly.
The whole industry imported 13.211 billion US dollars from January to September, an increase of 10.75% year-on-year. The growth rate was negative from the negative growth in the first quarter to the positive and monthly acceleration in April. Imports were US$11.928 billion over the same period in 2013, a net increase of US$1.283 billion, indicating that domestic demand has begun to pick up again.
Metal processing machine tools imported 104,700 units, 8.257 billion US dollars, an increase of 4.46%.
The processing center imported 33,900 units, 3.28 billion US dollars, an increase of 20.83%. Among them: vertical processing center imported 31,400 units, 1.84 billion US dollars, the amount increased by 66.45%, super high-speed growth; horizontal processing center imports 1,572 units, 968 million US dollars, the amount decreased by 12.97%;
The import of CNC machine tools was 12,400 units, which was 2.895 billion US dollars, and the amount decreased by 10.69%. Among them, 3,825 CNC horizontal lathes imported, 397 million US dollars, an increase of 4.03%;
Laser processing machine tools imported 4,097 units, 729 million US dollars, an increase of 40.74%.
It should be pointed out that the import of vertical machining centers and laser processing machine tools has maintained a high growth trend this year, indicating that domestic demand is very strong. In particular, the import value of vertical machining centers in the first nine months of this year was more than 300 million more than the total import value in 2013; the import value of laser processing machine tools also exceeded the annual import amount in 2013.
Overall, the whole industry has the following two characteristics:
First, exports have changed from low-speed growth in the previous year to rapid growth. CNC machine tools, laser processing machine tools and gold cutting machine tools are the three main exporters, with an amount of 1.314 billion US dollars, accounting for 55.77% of the metal processing machine tool exports of 2.356 billion US dollars, a large proportion;
Second, the growth rate of imports has turned from negative to positive and accelerated month by month. The import value of CNC machine tools, machining centers, laser processing machines and gold cutting machine tools was 7.438 billion US dollars, accounting for 90.08% of the import value of metal processing machine tools of 8.257 billion US dollars. The average unit price of processing center imports was only US$96,900, which was much lower than the US$156,100/set in the same period of last year. The import structure changed significantly.
Second, the import and export forecast of the machine tool industry in 2015
According to the latest Global Economic Outlook Report released by the International Monetary Fund on October 7, 2014, the 2014 global economic growth forecast will be lowered from 3.3% predicted in July this year to 3.3%, slightly higher than 3.2% in 2013. Speed ​​up. The group forecasts a global economic growth of 3.8% in 2015. The low growth and high unemployment in the Eurozone have seriously hampered the economic recovery. The impact of quantitative easing, interest and other monetary policies in the advanced economies such as Europe, the United States and Japan on the potential spillovers and spillovers of other countries has become increasingly complex, and the US economic recovery has stabilized. Market confidence and development expectations have been boosted.
Although the external environment facing China's foreign trade development has improved, the situation is still grim, and the resistance to foreign trade growth remains high. China's macroeconomic policies will maintain continuity and stability.
The comparative advantages of some middle and low-end products in China's machine tool industry still exist, and new competitive advantages are gradually formed. Especially through adjustment of structure, transformation and upgrading, and government policy support, enterprises' ability to resist risks, expand markets and innovate and develop significantly. As the Chinese government issues a series of policy measures to support the steady growth of foreign trade, the international competitiveness of Chinese enterprises will be improved. However, the foundation for the stabilization of the domestic economy is still not stable, and the overcapacity of some products is more prominent, and enterprises still face more difficulties in production and operation. At the same time, due to the expectation of RMB exchange rate appreciation and the rising labor costs in China, as well as the rising prices of input factors such as capital and environmental protection, the export costs have increased, which has brought many difficulties to further expand exports.
Based on the above analysis, it is expected that the import and export of machine tool industry in 2015 will continue the development trend in the second half of this year, and import and export will continue to grow and be better than 2014.
Third, response measures and recommendations
The development of the machine tool industry is driven by investment and by exports. China's fixed assets investment in machinery industry grew very fast before 2012, which is higher than the growth rate of fixed assets investment in China by more than 4 percentage points. However, since 2013, the situation has changed drastically, and the growth rate of investment is obviously lower than the national growth rate of 2-4. Percentage points. From January to September this year, the national fixed assets investment completed 3.579 billion yuan, an increase of 16.1%; the fixed investment of machinery industry completed 3.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.79%, lower than the national growth rate of 2.31 percentage points, indicating that the growth rate of machinery industry investment is obvious Slow down.
Investment in the automotive industry is still in the first place, followed by electrical and mechanical equipment, petrochemical general machinery, mechanical basic parts, machine tools ranked fifth. The fastest growth rate is petrochemical general machinery, followed by food packaging machinery and mechanical basic parts. Aerospace, marine and rolling stock are not included in this statistic.
Nearly half of the fixed assets investment in the machinery industry is the purchase of equipment tools, and the equipment required is mainly machine tools. Therefore, the machine tool industry should aim at the development of the above-mentioned industries, and develop and provide equipment for them, especially for the automotive, electrical and aerospace, marine, rolling stock and other industries.
Due to the obvious slowdown in domestic demand for machine tools in the past two years, the development of the machine tool industry is facing challenges. The current key is that the domestic market has significantly upgraded the demand structure of machine tools. The demand for machine tools in foreign markets has been limited. Due to the excessive expansion of production capacity of some domestic products, some low-end products are under-ordered and sales are not smooth, and related enterprises face many difficulties.
It is expected that the growth rate of fixed investment in machinery industry will continue in 2014 and will increase, but it will still be lower than the growth rate of national fixed asset investment. Machine tool demand will continue to grow slowly.
In order to further improve the import and export work, the following measures and suggestions are proposed.
1. Continue to adjust the structure and accelerate the transformation and upgrading
It is necessary to seek development priorities from imported products, because this is the most urgent need of users, and it also reflects the gap between national products and imported products. According to customs statistics, there are 20 kinds of machine tools with large user demand and large import volume in 2013, among which 10 are the main machine tools. Among these imported products, the horizontal, vertical and gantry three processing centers have the largest imports, reaching 20,500 units and 3.46 billion US dollars, followed by laser processing machines and CNC horizontal lathes, and once again CNC forging or stamping machines. CNC cylindrical grinding machine, multi-station combined machine tool and CNC bending machine. It is important to note that among the 10 types of machine tools, the import value of 9 kinds of machine tools has decreased compared with 2012, but only the import of CNC gear processing machines (CNC gear cutting machine, gear grinding machine, gear finishing machine) has increased. In addition, the import value of the three kinds of products is also very large: the import of functional parts for machine tools (ie, the gold-cut machine tool accessories) is 560 million US dollars, the import of numerical control devices is 752 million US dollars, and the import of metal cutting tools and tools is 575 million US dollars. Focus on the development.
We should make full use of these information resources, choose the varieties with large import volume and high technical content, and consider the factors of adapting to the individualization and specialization requirements of users, and proceed from the actual conditions of the enterprise to develop and develop production capacity as soon as possible. Realize import substitution and accelerate transformation and upgrading.
2. Emphasis on the development and innovation of laser processing machine tools
In recent years, the import volume of laser processing machine tools has been large and has developed rapidly. The import situation is: 5,250 units and 887 million US dollars in 2011; 6,880 units and 795 million US dollars in 2012; 5,395 units and 660 million US dollars in 2013; 4,097 units and 730 million US dollars in January-September 2014, compared with The year-on-year growth was 40.74%. Especially since the import growth rate has been so fierce this year, it is rare, indicating that domestic demand is very strong. Laser processing technology is widely used in metal sheet cutting, welding and other processes, with high processing accuracy, high efficiency, environmental protection and so on. Domestic enterprises need to develop and innovate and implement import substitution through various channels including “introduction†and “going outâ€.
3. Cooperate with neighboring countries to build “One Belt, One Road†to promote bilateral trade development
In October 2013, the central government held a symposium on diplomatic work in neighboring countries, stating that efforts should be made to make the political relations between neighboring countries and China more friendly and the economic ties stronger. We must work together with relevant countries to accelerate the interconnection of infrastructure and build the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.
The surrounding countries are important trading partners of the machine tool industry. In particular, the 10 ASEAN countries, India, Russia and the five Central Asian countries.
China's trade with ASEAN is developing rapidly. In 2013, the bilateral trade volume between China's machinery industry and ASEAN was US$61.892 billion, up 12.52% year-on-year, of which imports were US$14.675 billion, up 2.26% year-on-year; exports were US$47.216 billion, up 16.14% year-on-year. Imports and exports are still double-digit growth from January to September this year, and the momentum is very good. In September this year, the Chinese government proposed to launch an upgraded version of the Free Trade Zone to jointly build the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, which was welcomed by ASEAN countries. It is necessary to actively participate in the construction of ASEAN related national infrastructure, power stations, ports, railways, airports, machinery manufacturing, etc.
The Indian market has great potential. China is India's largest trading partner and India is China's largest trading partner in South Asia. At present, the manufacturing industry only accounts for 15% of India's GDP. India hopes to increase this ratio to 25% in the near future. Especially since the Modi government took office, India has not only planned to build hundreds of new smart cities, but also to build a number of industrial parks including Amaihabad and Mumbai, and China has rich experience and cost advantages in infrastructure construction. As China's investment in India increases, it will certainly drive the export of related equipment and services. In 2013, the bilateral trade volume between China's machinery industry and India was US$12.087 billion. We must continue to work hard on roads, railways, telecommunications, water supply and other projects to further develop bilateral trade.
Vigorously develop bilateral trade with Russia. Russia announced that it will focus on the development of the eastern region in the future. In 2013, China's bilateral trade in machinery products and Russia was US$10.934 billion, showing a growth trend. With the continuous consolidation and development of China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership, the launch of the Russian Far East Development Plan will provide a new opportunity for economic and trade cooperation between the two countries. In October this year, President Putin particularly emphasized that we must fully grasp this opportunity to develop more economic and technical cooperation and trade relations with China.
The bilateral trade between Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan in the five Central Asian countries is relatively large. With the development of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the development of infrastructure construction, it will surely bring business opportunities for the export of China's machinery products.
4. Machine tool manufacturing extends to the service industry
The machine tool manufacturing industry is facing new situations and problems in the service industry. From the machine tool industry:
First, we must design and manufacture personalized special machine tools for users from the sale of a single product to the sale of individual machine tools, the solution to the problem of the line and the sale of system services;
Second, it is necessary to extend and expand the scope of services, and carry out value-added services, including equipment installation and operation, spare parts supply, and help equipment users to establish remote online monitoring and fault diagnosis systems for CNC machine tools;
Third, we must carry out professional maintenance or repair of high-grade CNC machine tools, regular centralized maintenance of production lines and technical transformation of key equipment for equipment users.
In short, it is necessary for machine tool manufacturers to improve their ability to provide comprehensive services from market research, equipment usage information to after-sales service and to users.
5. Make good use of national foreign trade, finance, and financial policies to support import and export.
On May 4, 2014, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Several Opinions on Supporting Stable Growth of Foreign Trade", stating:
It is necessary to stabilize the export of traditional superior products. Support the export of products with intellectual property, brand, marketing network, high technology content, high added value and high efficiency.
Improve financing services. Further expand the financing channels for import and export enterprises and encourage commercial banks to carry out import and export credit business. Actively develop financial leasing. We will improve the global credit management of Chinese-funded financial institutions, strengthen cooperation with export enterprises in key industries, and steadily extend supply chain financing to overseas.
Increase export credit insurance support. Expand the scale and coverage of export credit insurance, and increase support for branded products, international marketing networks and small and micro enterprises. Under the premise of controllable risks, the export financing of large-scale complete sets of equipment should be guaranteed; the foreign exchange reserve euphemistic loan platform should be used to take effective measures to reduce the export financing cost of large-scale complete sets of equipment.
Relevant enterprises should familiarize themselves with and use these policies and develop import and export trade.
6. Attach importance to foreign investment and implement international management
The opinion issued by the General Office of the State Council on May 4, 2014 to support the steady growth of foreign trade also pointed out that enterprises should be encouraged to invest in overseas by means of greenfield investment consultation and mergers and acquisitions, and promote the transfer of some industries to overseas. Take comprehensive measures to support enterprises to carry out international cooperation and project contracting of major projects, and drive China's equipment, materials, products, standards, technologies and services to “go globalâ€. Support enterprises to carry out mergers and acquisitions of overseas brands, technologies and production lines, and improve the competitiveness of national standards.
China's machine tool industry has made a solid breakthrough in foreign investment, mergers and acquisitions, establishment of outlets, and international cooperation in major projects, and has achieved certain results. At present, on the basis of summing up experience, we will continue to broaden the scope, including transferring part of production capacity, expanding business scope, and driving the development of the service industry. It is necessary to formulate an implementation roadmap, gradually set out points according to the characteristics and needs of different regions, enter the international market in a down-to-earth manner and expand market share, and implement international operations.
Import and export situation of machine tool industry and countermeasures
Abstract I. Import and export situation and characteristics of machine tool industry from January to September 2014 According to customs statistics, the import and export of machine tool industry in January-September 2014 was US$21.254 billion, an increase of 14.98 from January-September 2013 (hereinafter referred to as year-on-year). %. ...
I. Import and export situation and characteristics of machine tool industry from January to September 2014