Ningxia Xinshuncheng Special Alloy Co., Ltd. , http://www.xinshunchengalloy.com
What is the real solar photovoltaic technology development roadmap?
The continuous improvement of photovoltaic module efficiency and rated power represents an important achievement in the photovoltaic industry today. We cannot simply consider these technical requirements as long-term goals for the development of the entire solar photovoltaic industry. However, at the company level, they are a necessary condition to differentiate leading suppliers in an overcrowded and highly competitive production environment. Enhancements in panel efficiency often require changes in production processes, raw materials, and consumable materials. Ideally, those that drive these changes will be those that are characteristic of the technology roadmap. Photovoltaic manufacturers that successfully implement these technologies should gain an absolute market share. In the subsequent expansion phase, suppliers that provide the main product equipment and materials for the new production process should also be the preferred supplier. So, no surprise, there are now many R&D labs, equipment/material suppliers, photovoltaic manufacturers and regional associations. They are all actively trying to influence the content and timing of the technology roadmap. From these roadmaps, we can conclude that they are used repeatedly by equipment and material suppliers as a corporate strategy to match their expected industry needs. Uncertainty in the technology roadmap for the photovoltaic industry These series of activities will only be effective if only the PV manufacturers with dominant market share closely integrate the corporate development strategy with the technology roadmap. However, things are not always the case. In fact, equipment and materials suppliers are often able to understand the hardships of this path through value chains and supply chains. They combine their internal strategy with the technology roadmap, but the results are quite different from those of the photovoltaic industry. Therefore, people are constantly questioning the roadmap for photovoltaic technology under consideration. However, the basic premise of establishing a cohesive photovoltaic technology roadmap remains robust. What needs to be changed is the input method of the proposed roadmap and its assumptions. NPD Solarbuzz Photovoltaic Technology Roadmap NPD Solarbuzz develops a photovoltaic technology roadmap by first planning a detailed production process for PV manufacturers; as the product enters the downstream phase, it continues to meet the needs of the end market, and it Product impacts are tracked. At the same time, it is supplemented by an analysis of the manufacturer's equipment expenditure, the supplier's product backlog and the profit achieved by different equipment levels under each process. Thanks to the unique high dispersion of photovoltaic technology, a large number of technical route solutions have been generated through this method of development, and a strong investment in equipment capital has been obtained. These investments span a wide range of fields from crystalline silicon to thin film alternatives and are often supported by well-organized marketing campaigns. Regardless of how many technology roadmaps are currently being advanced, it is prudent to focus on the existing and short-term plans of leading PV manufacturers. At present, nine out of ten leading manufacturers are in the field of crystalline silicon. It is imperative to choose the first-line crystalline silicon manufacturer. It is challenging to prioritize which part of the crystalline silicon value chain. Regardless of the new silicon ingot growth method that can be adopted for low-cost solar-grade polysilicon, such as single casting, or a greater degree of application of diamond wire saws, etc., the promotion of crystalline silicon solar cell production will be driven by the market. More than any upstream process development. In fact, the various crystalline silicon cell concepts held by first-line manufacturers place basic requirements on the quality of polysilicon, such as whether the substrate type is n-type or p-type, monocrystalline or polycrystalline silicon; wafer thickness and production tools. The production cost and average efficiency level of each concept battery are also different. This combination of cost and efficiency also determines the price per watt of the company's products. Disadvantages of traditional crystalline silicon segmentation Historically, it has been sufficient to classify crystalline silicon technology into monocrystalline and polycrystalline silicon or standard and efficient. However, current one-line silicon solar cell manufacturers are actively pursuing a variety of roadmap solutions. The product concept cannot be easily distinguished by examining single crystal silicon or polycrystalline silicon substrates. Market leaders decide on technology roadmaps The technology that will ultimately dominate the photovoltaic industry will be the technology that market leaders have decided to implement in large-scale production. Even these technologies have not played an important role in today's photovoltaic industry roadmap. Conversely, those technologies that are not used by first-tier manufacturers, even if they have lower production costs and higher efficiency, are not likely to acquire any market at least in the initial stage, except for the niche market. One-line crystalline silicon cell manufacturing enterprise strategy The current implementation strategy of first-line crystalline silicon solar cell manufacturers can be roughly divided into cost/production optimization or advanced and efficient battery concept. Those who are more cautious are more inclined to optimize the cost/production route; other manufacturers are actively designing advanced solar cells to increase battery power generation. In contrast to the different routes that promote high-efficiency solar cells, first-line battery manufacturers introduced less than 15 battery types in 2011. Therefore, it is still too early to draw conclusions about the technical roadmap for the production of first-line crystalline silicon solar cells. In 2011, more than 75% of crystalline silicon cells supplied by first-line manufacturers were based on traditional production processes. Conversely, in the next 12-18 months, a variety of second-generation high-efficiency ideas will produce a more useful leading indicator. Where is the technology buying cycle? Before the solar panel demand has enough confidence to reach 30-35 GW per year, the investment in new capacity will remain largely. At the same time, it is widely predicted that the technology buying cycle will take a step ahead of the capacity that first-tier manufacturers are about to increase. In fact, the essence of these technology purchases should provide guidance for emerging high-efficiency battery concepts. The leading concept of this efficient solar cell will shape the roadmap for the future of photovoltaic technology. Only when the cost of solar cell production under the new concept is fully established, each manufacturer has an opportunity to assess whether these technologies are mature enough to ensure deployment during the golden age.