In the first quarter, the steel industry benefited the worst in 15 years

Recently, Liu Zhenjiang, vice chairman and vice chairman of the China Iron and Steel Association, revealed that the first quarter of this year may be the worst quarterly performance since the steel industry entered the new century, and now it has only begun to really enter the winter.

Or just getting into the Winter Steel Association website news, Liu Zhenjiang revealed that the iron and steel industry in January and February 2014, the industry efficiency is worse than the previous two years, in January the key statistical units suffered losses, the loss amounted to 1 billion yuan, the company's loss The face of 43%, a record high. The situation in February is also not good. "The first quarter of this year may be the worst quarterly performance of the steel industry since the beginning of the new century. This signal is very strong, and it feels to the enterprise that it is only now or really into the winter."

According to statistics from the Statistics Bureau, China's crude steel production in the first two months of 2014 was 13,080,000 tons, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year, and the average daily output was 2.217 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, a record high.

According to another survey, the profitability of 163 steel mills was 28.22% in the previous week, a decrease of 4.91% from the previous period. The current steel social inventory has been lightened for two consecutive weeks, a decrease of nearly 9% year-on-year. However, the inventory of key companies in February was still 16.25 million tons, an increase of 28% year-on-year. In a comprehensive view, the current industrial chain inventory is more concentrated in the steel plant sector, and the inventory pressure of middle and lower-tier traders and end-users is relatively small, but the task of destocking is still arduous.

Liu Zhenjiang said that early this year, the steel industry felt that there were two rigid factors in the arrival of real winter: First, the market demand has really come down. In January, steel demand fell by 8.6% year-on-year, steel production also decreased by 3.2%, and output reduction was much lower than demand. “The second is the policy constraints, environmental protection requirements, the implementation of regulatory conditions, the constraints of differential electricity prices and capital credits, cash flow constraints, taxation fees, and the requirements for resolving production capacity. For a considerable part of the enterprise, efforts are unprecedented. The effect of the country's adjustment of the rate of economic growth has really shown itself."

Steel prices continued to fall. Limited space last week, the domestic steel price index closed at 122.33 points, down 0.75% a week, which is the lowest point in the past five years.

In the construction steel market, prices continue to fall. The tonnage of the leading markets such as Shanghai and Beijing, as well as most other markets in the country, still fell by between $10 and $70 last week, and the Changsha market fell by RMB110. According to industry sources, the fall in iron ore prices has encouraged a panic in the steel market. Businesses are generally pessimistic about the market outlook, and market prices have accelerated. At present, the spot price of rebar is close to the low point at the beginning of 2007. “The next step is a little bit down and there may be a temporary rebound.”

Plate market, the overall price down. The decline in hot-rolled coils remains the same. The weekly tonnage price drop in most markets such as Shanghai and Guangzhou is concentrated between 20 and 70 yuan. The latest hot-rolled ex-factory price policy for April in leading steel mills such as Baosteel and Wuhan Iron and Steel Company was "flat", indicating a cautious attitude towards the market outlook. At present, the price of hot rolled coil has fallen to the lowest point in a year and a half, which is close to the marginal cost of major steel mills.

Analysts believe that at present, environmental protection and the elimination of outdated production capacity have relatively limited effects on the steel industry. Crude steel production has picked up again recently, while the recovery of downstream demand has been extremely slow, and the mismatch between supply and demand continues to exist. On the other hand, the space for the continued downward movement of steel prices has also become limited, and the market should not be overly “seeing bearish” and there is a possibility of a phased rebound in the short term.

China Steel Association believes that with the warming of the weather, steel demand in the domestic market will gradually start. However, there is still downward pressure on economic development, and the growth of steel demand will show a slowing trend. In the short term, the situation of oversupply of the market is still difficult to reverse. In the latter period, although the market steel price will gradually stabilize due to cost support, it will hardly rebound sharply.