Signs of bottoming out in the industry, steel prices continue to decline slightly

At present, the macro-economy is steadily improving. In October, the initial value of HSBC PMI was 50.9%, a record high of 7 months, indicating that industrial production had bottomed out in the third quarter, and it is expected that the recovery in the fourth quarter will continue. However, the steel mills continue to increase production, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the later period will continue to increase. It is expected that the domestic steel market will continue to decline slightly this week (2013.10.28-11.1).

According to the Lange Steel Information Research Center weekly price forecast model data, this week (2013.10.28-11.1) domestic steel market prices will continue to decline slightly, the long product market price will steadily weaken, and the plate market price will decline steadily. Lange Steel's national comprehensive steel price index is expected to fluctuate around 137.2 points. The average price of steel products is about 3560 yuan, and the average price is down by about 20 yuan. Among them, the long product price index is expected to fluctuate around 154.0 points, a slight decline of about 0.1 points; The index is expected to fluctuate around 117.2 points, a slight drop of around 0.6 points.

Lange Steel Information Research Center market survey data show that this week (2013.10.28-11.1) domestic long products market prices will steadily weaken, plate market prices will decline steadily; raw material market prices will steadily decline, iron ore The market price will steadily decline by 5 yuan, the coke market price will remain stable, the scrap market price will drop by 30 yuan, and the billet market price will drop by 20 yuan.

1. Domestic steel market continued to decline slightly this week. Week 43, 2013 (2013.10.21-10.25) Lange Steel's national comprehensive steel price index reached 137.6 points, down 0.60% from last week and 7.31% from the same period of last year. Among them, the LGMI long products price index was 154.1 points, down 0.30% from last week and 7.74% lower than the same period of last year. The LGMI sheet price index was 117.8 points, hitting a new low this year, down 1.08% from last week and 6.63 from the same period of last year. % (see Figure 1 for details).

According to market monitoring by Lange Steel Information Research Center, the price changes of 17 types of 44 steel products and steel products in some parts of the country during the 43rd week of 2013 were as follows: Market prices of major steel products continued to decline slightly. Compared with the week, the rising varieties slightly decreased, the flat varieties slightly decreased, and the falling varieties slightly increased. Among them, five varieties rose, one less than last week; fifteen were flat and one less than last week; 24 varieties fell, two kinds more than last week. The domestic iron and steel raw materials market prices were mixed, iron ore market prices fell steadily by 5 yuan, coke market prices rose steadily by 20 yuan, scrap market prices fell steadily by 10 yuan, billet market prices fell by 20-40 yuan.

2. This week, the steel market fluctuates and oscillates. The 43 weeks of 2013 (2013.10.21-10.25) The rebar market continued to fluctuate and fell. The process of washing up may still continue. This week's closing price fell 58 points from last week, and the decline has increased. This week, the main 1401 positions held 12.04 million hands, lighten up 103,000 hands, 1295 positions held 927,000 hands, Masukura 171,000 hands, the main shift positions in the acceleration process.

3. The national steel social inventories continued to decline this week. At present, the national steel social inventories continue to decline, and the decline rate of building materials and sheet stocks has accelerated. According to the market monitoring of Lange Steel Information Research Center, on October 25, steel society stocks in 29 key cities across the country amounted to 13.4391 million tons, a decrease of 264,600 tons or 1.93% from last week, which is a decrease from the previous week. Accelerate 1.59 percentage points. From the perspective of the sub-variety: the country's wire rod social inventory of 124.06 million tons, down 3.93% from last week, from the last week's rise to decline, rose 0.34% over the previous month, an increase of 17.91% over the same period last year; rebar social inventory The amount was 4,995,200 tons, down by 2.05% from the previous week, an acceleration of 1.03 percentage points from the previous week's decline rate, a decrease of 3.27% from the previous month, and an increase of 9.67% from the same period of last year; the inventory of the social stock of the disk was 354,700 tons. Compared with the previous week, it decreased by 2.00% from last week's rise to a drop, which was a 3.52% increase from the previous month and a 19.90% increase from the same period of last year. The volume of hot rolled coil social inventory was 3,781,400 tons, a decrease of 2.18% from the previous week. The speed of decline last week accelerated by 1.76 percentage points, 0.02% from the previous month and 1.42% from the same period of last year; the volume of CRC coiled society was 1.5086 million tons, which was 0.64% higher than last week and was higher than last week. The speed accelerated slightly by 0.54 percentage points, 1.35% higher than the previous month, and 0.92% lower than the same period of last year; the plate stocks in the plate were 1.846 million tons, which was 1.83% lower than last week, and turned from the rise of the previous week to a decline. It rose 2.74% last month, down 1.37% from the same period of last year.

4. Focus on market factors this week Macroeconomics:

[PMI] October HSBC China PMI Preview 50.9%

The initial value of HSBC PMI in October was 50.9%, a 7-month high, better than the previously expected 50.4 and September final value of 50.2, which is the index maintained above the 50-point line for three consecutive months. Among them, the new orders index rose to a 7-month high of 51.6; the new export orders index also rose slightly from 50.7 in September to 50.8, remained above 50 for two consecutive months; the output index also hit a six-month high of 51 The previous data was 50.2. The initial value of HSBC's manufacturing PMI hit a seven-month high in October, and all sub-indexes rebounded slightly, indicating that industrial production has bottomed out in the third quarter, and the recovery is expected to continue in the fourth quarter.

[Industrial Electricity] National industrial electricity consumption in September reached 303 million kWh, a year-on-year growth of 8.1%

According to CEC statistics, from January to September, the national industrial electricity consumption was 2.8198 trillion kWh, an increase of 6.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 3.5% higher than the same period of last year; the proportion of total electricity consumption in the society was 71.5%. The contribution to the growth of electricity consumption in the entire society was 64.4%. Among them, electricity consumption for light and heavy industries was 481.6 billion kWh and 234.82 billion kWh, respectively, an increase of 6.7% and 6.4% year-on-year, respectively, and the growth rate was 2.3 and 3.8 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. In September, the country’s industrial electricity consumption reached 300.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, and contributed 53.4% ​​to the growth in electricity consumption of the entire society. Among them, light and heavy industrial electricity consumption was 56.1 billion kWh and 244.2 billion kWh respectively, which was a year-on-year increase of 5.1% and 8.8% respectively. The growth rate of light industry electricity consumption was the same as that of the same period of last year, and the growth rate of heavy industry electricity consumption was higher than that of the previous year. It increased by 8.9 percentage points over the same period.

[Industrial Electricity] In September, the four high-energy-consumption industries used a total of 140 billion kwh of electricity, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year

According to CEC statistics, from January to September, the total energy consumption of the four major high-energy-consumption industries of chemical raw material products, non-metallic mineral products, ferrous metal smelting, and non-ferrous metal smelting totaled 1,128 billion kWh, up 5.1% year-on-year; Electricity accounts for 30.9% of the total electricity consumption in the society, and contributes 22.5% to the growth in electricity consumption of the entire society. Among them, the chemical industry used 293.3 billion kwh electricity, an increase of 4.9%; building materials industry electricity consumption 2276 billion kwh, an increase of 4.8%; ferrous metal smelting industry electricity consumption 4027 billion kwh, an increase of 5.6%; The metal smelting industry was 294.4 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. The growth rate of electricity consumption in the building materials and steel industry was 5.0 and 10.9 percentage points higher than that in the same period of the previous year, and the growth rate of electricity use in the chemical and non-ferrous industries fell by 1.5 and 1.3 percentage points respectively.

In September, the four high-energy-consumption industries used a total of 140 billion kWh of electricity, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year, a deceleration of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and a decrease of 3.2% from the previous month; the proportion of total electricity consumption in the entire society It is 31.5%. Among them, the chemical industry used 34 billion kwh of electricity, an increase of 4.3% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 3.8 percentage points lower than the previous month and a 2.8% decrease; the building materials industry used electricity 27,800 million kwh, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year. It fell by 2.6 percentage points last month and fell by 3.5% from the previous month; the electricity consumption of the ferrous metal smelting industry was 45.6 billion kWh, up by 14.9% year-on-year, 3.4 percentage points higher than last month, and down by 3.7% from the previous month; non-ferrous metal smelting industry was 32.6 billion. Kilowatt-hours, an increase of 3.8% year-on-year, the growth rate was down 1.9 percentage points from the previous month and 2.8% month-on-month.

[Manufacturing Electricity] National manufacturing electricity consumption in September increased by 7.8% from the same period last year to 241 billion kWh

According to CEC statistics, from January to September, the national manufacturing electricity consumption was 2091.7 billion kwh, an increase of 5.9% year-on-year, an increase of 3.7 percentage points over the same period of last year. In September, the nation’s manufacturing power consumption was 241 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.8 percent, and the growth rate was 2.1 percentage points lower than the previous month; the national average daily electricity consumption of the manufacturing industry was 8 billion kWh/day, a decrease of 200 million yuan from the previous month. kWh/day has exceeded 8 billion kWh/day for four consecutive months.

Industry News:

[International Steel] Global crude steel production increased by 2.7% in the first three quarters of the previous year

According to statistics from the World Steel Association, in September, the total output of crude steel from 65 steel-producing countries in the world was 130 million tons, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year. In September, the crude steel capacity utilization rate of 65 steel-producing countries was 79.3%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year and 3.4 percentage points higher than the previous month. In the first three quarters of 2013, the total crude steel output of the 65 steel-producing countries was 1.186 billion tons, an increase of 2.7% over the same period of last year. Among them, Asia's output was 795.1 million tons, an increase of 5.9%; Europe, 12,380,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%; North America 88.9 million tons, a decrease of 4.1%; CIS countries, 81.5 million tons, a decrease of 3.4%; South America 34.8 million tons, decline 1.2%.

In September, China's crude steel production was 65.4 million tons, an increase of 11.0% year-on-year; Japan's 9.3 million tons, an increase of 5.5%; South Korea 5.2 million tons, a decrease of 8.7%. In September, crude steel production in Germany was 3.6 million tons, an increase of 1.4%; Italy, 2.1 million tons, a drop of 10.4%; France, 1.4 million tons, an increase of 7.4%; Spain, 1.3 million tons, an increase of 5.9%. Turkey's crude steel output was 3 million tons, a decrease of 1.2%. In September, the United States produced 7.2 million tons of crude steel, an increase of 6.3%.

Downstream demand:

[Traffic Investment] The first three quarters of railways, highways, waterways completed a total of 1,427.4 billion yuan in fixed asset investment growth of 8.4% year-on-year

According to statistics from the Ministry of Transport, in the first three quarters, total investment in fixed assets for railways, highways, and waterways was 1,427.4 billion yuan, an increase of 8.4 percent year-on-year, with growth of 3.6 percent in the third quarter, which was 8.6 percentage points lower than the first half. In terms of sectors, railways completed investment in fixed assets of 369.7 billion yuan, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year, of which a decrease of 7.6% in the third quarter. The highway completed investment of 939.7 billion yuan, an increase of 10.1%, of which the growth in the third quarter was 7.9%. Water transportation completed a total investment of 104.7 billion yuan, an increase of 2.3%, of which the growth in the third quarter was 12.1%. From the perspective of project structure, the growth of ordinary road construction is good. The total investment of common national highways is 245.2 billion yuan, an increase of 17.6% year-on-year, of which the growth rate is 12.6% in the third quarter; rural roads have completed an investment of 172.2 billion yuan, an increase of 20.1%, of which the third Quarterly growth of 25.4%. The highway completed investment of 490.9 billion yuan, an increase of 4.2%. The completion of inland water construction reached 39.5 billion yuan, an increase of 21.1%, with an increase of 26.8% in the third quarter.

[Real Estate] Real Estate ** Increased by RMB 1.9 Billion in the First Three Quarters According to statistics from the Central Bank, real estate in January-September increased by 1.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 917.6 billion yuan year-on-year. At the end of September, the real estate development balance stood at 1.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, and the growth rate was 4.1 percentage points lower than at the end of the previous quarter. The real estate development ** balance was 3.43 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, and a 3.9 percentage point increase from the end of the previous quarter. The balance of personal purchases** was 9.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.2% year-on-year. The growth rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than the end of the previous quarter; it increased 1.37 trillion yuan from January to September, an increase of 693.1 billion yuan year-on-year.